4-day Weekend Thread: 5-day numbers per BOM - TLJ 99.0M, J:WTTJ 55.4M, PP3 26.4M, TGS 14.4M, F 10.1M, C 8.2M, D 7.7M and an incredible $5,480,000 for Father Figures

[TwoMisfits]

I'm gonna keep harping it (as I've done on past threads the last 2-3 months), but Moviepass is also rapidly changing the market place for family oriented movies.  Adults can now go and see things at will, pretty much any time.  That is devaluing the value of the movies in their minds.  If you ask most folks with Moviepass what they'd pay for a 2d movie ticket right now, it'd probably be $9 (the new Cinemark plan) or much less.  However, kids can't get Moviepass - they are prohibited by the terms...so now those same kids are becoming more expensive tickets to adults used to kids getting "discounts" everywhere - I mean, where do you ever pay MORE to bring a kid, except now at movie theaters?  Apart from early openers and Tuesdays, kid tickets for 1st run movies are $10.50 and up here, more than the Moviepass monthly cost.  So, it's no surprise that this weekend, every new family oriented opener went with huge deals to bring in families - Jumanji offered a large free popcorn per 2 tickets bought (plus the Chase Pay BOGO option), and Ferdinand last weekend and The Greatest Showman this weekend offered 3 for 1 ticket deals (BOGO combinable with Chase Pay BOGO).

 

I don't know where kid-oriented movies and family-oriented movies will end up in 2018.  Obviously, ones which still appeal to adults (Star Wars, supers, Pixar) shouldn't suffer too much, but ones which depend on an almost solely kid base could be in some trouble.

 

And it's something the industry probably needs to watch.  If kids stop getting brought to movies and this becomes an entirely adult endeavor, 10-15 years from now, you don't have any teens and young adults coming to movies anymore, either, as they never developed the habit and the good memories...

   

It's why I think it's a huge mistake no one has come up with an equivalent Moviepass family plan yet.  Fighting fraud on it would be hard, but if we're moving to a subscription plan, and you miss your future audience entirely, your industry is gonna be in a world of hurt rapidly...

[TwoMisfits]

18 minutes ago, Noctis said:

Even more whispers reporting it's set to do $27.9m.

 

 

Dude, I want your movie whisperer!:)

[AndyLL]

Moderation:

 

There is to be ZERO talk of a current movies plot or characters in this thread.  That includes even hints of the plot, story and structure.  Several posts today have really toed the line.

 

 

[YM!]

7 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

I'm gonna keep harping it (as I've done on past threads the last 2-3 months), but Moviepass is also rapidly changing the market place for family oriented movies.  Adults can now go and see things at will, pretty much any time.  That is devaluing the value of the movies in their minds.  If you ask most folks with Moviepass what they'd pay for a 2d movie ticket right now, it'd probably be $9 (the new Cinemark plan) or much less.  However, kids can't get Moviepass - they are prohibited by the terms...so now those same kids are becoming more expensive tickets to adults used to kids getting "discounts" everywhere - I mean, where do you ever pay MORE to bring a kid, except now at movie theaters?  Apart from early openers and Tuesdays, kid tickets for 1st run movies are $10.50 and up here, more than the Moviepass monthly cost.  So, it's no surprise that this weekend, every new family oriented opener went with huge deals to bring in families - Jumanji offered a large free popcorn per 2 tickets bought (plus the Chase Pay BOGO option), and Ferdinand last weekend and The Greatest Showman this weekend offered 3 for 1 ticket deals (BOGO combinable with Chase Pay BOGO).

 

I don't know where kid-oriented movies and family-oriented movies will end up in 2018.  Obviously, ones which still appeal to adults (Star Wars, supers, Pixar) shouldn't suffer too much, but ones which depend on an almost solely kid base could be in some trouble.

 

And it's something the industry probably needs to watch.  If kids stop getting brought to movies and this becomes an entirely adult endeavor, 10-15 years from now, you don't have any teens and young adults coming to movies anymore, either, as they never developed the habit and the good memories...

   

It's why I think it's a huge mistake no one has come up with an equivalent Moviepass family plan yet.  Fighting fraud on it would be hard, but if we're moving to a subscription plan, and you miss your future audience entirely, your industry is gonna be in a world of hurt rapidly...

You do realize theater’s have kid pricing and the ones that aren’t likely to be appealing to all parties won’t hit right.

[Brainbug]

After ive listened 20 times to it, The Last Jedi might have my new favourite John Williams SW score. I cant get enough of it.

 

Please, just please let John Williams live forever.

[baumer]

5 hours ago, Valonqar said:

between you and me, I don't think that TLJ took that many creative risks either. It was more busy flipping every expectation on its head for the sake of flipping, but it was still modeled after familiar beats and tropes. Only with subversion of each. That's not nearly as creative and risky as critics made it out to be in their circle jerk. I liked the movie fine but critics really blew it out of proportion.

 

Insert every clapping gif here.

[JB33]

17 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

After ive listened 20 times to it, The Last Jedi might have my new favourite John Williams SW score. I cant get enough of it.

 

Please, just please let John Williams live forever.

What do you think of Giacchino's RO score?

[grey ghost]

34 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

By that logic, all of the most loved films of all time "played it safe." Don't agree. Could have pleased the fans without following an ESB blueprint or having the most obvious fan theories be correct. 

Most beloved blockbusters did play it safe though.

 

If something is a crowd pleaser, it's probably very much planned and intentional.

 

ESB had a twist but having a twist doesn't make something risky.

 

In fact, twist can be a clever marketing tool. Look at M. Night's biggest movies. 

[Rebeccas]

I guess when people don’t like your movie you can always say “well at least I took a risk!”. Man so many risky movies! 

[redfirebird2008]

56 minutes ago, ReyReyBattery said:

TLJ numbers are pretty disappointing for me, personally. I definitely hoped it would chug along more nicely than it has. Still, they made a movie I really love so I am willing to call this a flawless victory for Disney because they really should focus on just pleasing me. Good job Disney.

 

 

 

No reason to be disappointed this early. I think the numbers will be fun to watch over the next couple weeks. 

[Noctis]

Next week, when the film has big weekdays and a near-flat drop from this weekend, you're going to have people claiming it's set to do $800m+ and beat Avatar handily until reality hits them hard in the face when holiday season ends.

 

This forum is so predictable.

[aabattery]

1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

No reason to be disappointed this early. I think the numbers will be fun to watch over the next couple weeks. 

 

If I'm really pessimistic now, it has a chance to go over my now very low expectations.

 

Me smart.

[JB33]

1 minute ago, Noctis said:

Next week, when the film has big weekdays and a near-flat drop from this weekend, you're going to have people claiming it's set to do $800m+ and beat Avatar handily until reality hits them hard in the face when holiday season ends.

 

This forum is so predictable.

Yeah, I don't know about anyone else but I'm not going to continue doing any personal estimates or have any expectations. Of course, it doesn't help when actuals keep coming in under both Deadline's and Rth's numbers. 

 

It's clear TLJ is playing by its own rules, RO or 2006 be damned.

[baumer]

No matter what the Last Jedi makes we all know it's going to be a piss load of money. The final tally is not what is being questioned however. When it opened at 220 million, that was about 10% less than the force awakens and it obviously opened that big because people were thrilled with the previous movie and they wanted to see where the film Direction went next. The numbers now are declining at a rapid rate and it's not going to come close to what it should have done. That's why the final number is going to be a disappointment. So five years down the road when you look at the final gross and see something like 650 - 700 million, it'll look fantastic. But when you look at the 220 opening weekend it probably should have had a chance to do 750 - 800. I hope there is fan service in the next film because, God forbid they make a movie for the fans that have been supporting this franchise for 40 fucking years.

[grim22]

5 minutes ago, ReyReyBattery said:

 

If I'm really pessimistic now, it has a chance to go over my now very low expectations.

 

Me smart.

 

What if it goes under?  

[Fancyarcher]

1 minute ago, ReyReyBattery said:

 

If I'm really pessimistic now, it has a chance to go over my now very low expectations.

 

Me smart.

Keep your expectations in check I say, otherwise you're gonna be devastated by the future numbers. Very smart. 

[JB33]

1 minute ago, Christmas baumer said:

No matter what the Last Jedi makes we all know it's going to be a piss load of money. The final tally is not what is being questioned however. When it opened at 220 million, that was about 10% less than the force awakens and it obviously opened that big because people were thrilled with the previous movie and they wanted to see where the film Direction went next. The numbers now are declining at a rapid rate and it's not going to come close to what it should have done. That's why the final number is going to be a disappointment. So five years down the road when you look at the final gross and see something like 650 - 700 million, it'll look fantastic. But when you look at the 220 opening weekend it probably should have had a chance to do 750 - 800. I hope there is fan service in the next film because, God forbid they make a movie for the fans that I've been supporting this franchise for 40 fucking years.

Bingo. Read this @EmpireCity and others instead of chastising people for their take on the box office performance. People here aren't stupid. We GET that these are big numbers either way. But you folks aren't stupid either and you know that this run so far post-OW has not gone as it should have.

[aabattery]

1 minute ago, grim22 said:

 

What if it goes under?  

 

Current expectations are that it will stop making money tomorrow. Touch and go if it can go above that.

[grey ghost]

So now TLJ didn't even take risk?

 

You guys are getting ridiculous.

 

Either a movie played it safe or it took risks.

 

And there's no way anyone can suggest TFJ played it safe.

 

Yeah, you guys were right about the GA not digging the movie but c'mon.

[filmnerdjamie]

Just now, Christmas baumer said:

No matter what the Last Jedi makes we all know it's going to be a piss load of money. The final tally is not what is being questioned however. When it opened at 220 million, that was about 10% less than the force awakens and it obviously opened that big because people were thrilled with the previous movie and they wanted to see where the film Direction went next. The numbers now are declining at a rapid rate and it's not going to come close to what it should have done. That's why the final number is going to be a disappointment. So five years down the road when you look at the final gross and see something like 650 - 700 million, it'll look fantastic. But when you look at the 220 opening weekend it probably should have had a chance to do 750 - 800. I hope there is fan service in the next film because, God forbid they make a movie for the fans that have been supporting this franchise for 40 fucking years.

And again... after it's all said and done, we're all going to just go back to the original trilogy and solely acknowledge that. Those three films will be what we pass down to our kids (and grand kids) and not these Disney-era films. Not a slight against the latter but they will be lost to the conversation just like the fan outrage over the prequels.