4-day Weekend Thread: 5-day numbers per BOM - TLJ 99.0M, J:WTTJ 55.4M, PP3 26.4M, TGS 14.4M, F 10.1M, C 8.2M, D 7.7M and an incredible $5,480,000 for Father Figures

[FantasticBeasts]

4 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Sigh.

 

700M isnt the optimistic case, 750M+ is. We still cant really judge the movies WOM (among the GA, not the fans!) because the grosses are depressed. Now, that all changes tomorrow: If TLJ fails to have amazing weekdays in the next few days, we can assume it has mixed WOM. Now, because of the calendar, its still too early. Btw, people here knew how much Christmas Eve would screw the weekend, so all the hyperbole seems rather irrational.

 

The realistic scenario for TLJ remains to be 670-720M imo.

This week has been disapointing 100% for TLJ. I get that the calendar is strange but even with that in mind, it has been performing poorly.

I don't think there was a single person that went that low for this weekend and I am sure people knew pretty well about Christmas Eve.

The only reasonable explanation for all this to me is that the reception is a bit mixed or at least not as positive as people expected to. And tbh, there were signs for this from the very beginning that were dismissed angrily with cheap excuses.

I never say never, but I don't expect it to suddenly start doing crazily good when every hold so far has been from meh to pretty bad. 

[TwoMisfits]

18 minutes ago, Wrath said:

I don’t know that its still correct to automatically consider every Pixar release a blockbuster. Inside Out was huge, but other than that its last non-sequel to be a blockbuster was Up and that was 2009. And Cars 3 was pretty disappointing.

Even if you don't consider them blockbusters, they are given blockbuster production budgets...so not sure why we should have any other definition for "blockbuster" than that...

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, FantasticBeasts said:

This week has been disapointing 100% for TLJ. I get that the calendar is strange but even with that in mind, it has been performing poorly.

I don't think there was a single person that went that low for this weekend and I am sure people knew pretty well about Christmas Eve.

The only reasonable explanation for all this to me is that the reception is a bit mixed or at least not as positive as people expected to. And tbh, there were signs for this from the very beginning that were dismissed angrily with cheap excuses.

I never say never, but I don't expect it to suddenly start doing crazily good when every hold so far has been from meh to pretty bad. 

 

I think we're going in circles. We really need these next weekday numbers than the picture will be much clearer.

[Maxmoser3]

Jumanji’s debut is really good! It should finish between $150-$160 million domestic. 

 

Pitch Pefect 3’s debut isn’t horrible but should have some legs but may not make

$100 million.

 

Downsizing, Father Figures, and Showman... ouch. Paramount needs to think about their future in 2018 if they want to be alive at the end of the decade. Father Figures is a weak start for the stars but the studio behind it has had a strong year! Showman well it was too flashy. 

[The Panda]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

It dropped 70% in its second weekend. C'mon, that's not all the calendar. Let's say the calendar was the 21-23 so we remove Xmas Eve, I fail to see how it makes more than an additional 15m? And even with another 15m, that's still a big 60%+ tumble for it. 

45m previews, no Christmas Day (which softened TFA's drop quite a bit, most direct comparison in previews), there is Christmas Eve.  Saturday was just down in the mid-50s, being the big shopping day before Christmas Eve.

 

Im not saying you're necessarily wrong, I'm just saying it's too early to gage WoM.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

I've said the entire time it would not surprise me if TLJ was in the 600s. I remember I had a conversation with @MrPink this summer where we both said that this could be the case. So don't act like all of us were on the 700m+ or bust train either.

Edited December 24, 2017 by Reyhawk

[Porthos]

Fun fact:  Rogue One had a 59% drop with Christmas landing its Sunday.

 

Now maybe I'm going senile, but I sure don't recall people saying it was the end of the world during that weekend.

Edited December 24, 2017 by Porthos

[FantasticBeasts]

1 minute ago, Reyhawk said:

I've said the entire time it would not surprise me if TLJ was in the 600s. I remember I had a conversation with @MrPink this summer where we both said that this could be the case. So don't act like all of us were on the 700m+ or bust train either.

Sure there were more conservative predictors out there and I was one of them too, but what about after the OW?

I don't think ANYONE sane would have said under $700m. Heck even $800m felt a lot more plausible to me.

[aabattery]

Just now, Porthos said:

Fun fact:  Rogue One had a 59% drop with Christmas landing its Sunday.

 

Now maybe I'm going senile, but I sure don't recall people saying it was the end of the world during that weekend.

 

I am almost certain that we did.

[Porthos]

Just now, ReyReyBattery said:

 

I am almost certain that we did.

No, no, I'm pretty sure you're wrong.  After all, The End of the World would have most definitely been an event.

[Brainbug]

Another way to look at it: With 365M (and its grosses beeing depressed), TLJ has outgrossed blockbusters such as Inside Out, Deadpool, The Jungle Book (2016) or Furious 7 - in 10 days! Just looking at it from a neutral standpoint, this is amazing.

 

Even with only 29M tomorrow (staying flat with its Sat number), it would stand at 394M, outgrossing GOTG Vol 2 in 11 days. Give it another ( really bad) 25M the next day and it stands at 419, flying by Wonder Woman and Toy Story 3, entering the Top 20 DOM of all time.

 

Of course, all those goals beeing surpassed in a very short time is expected from The Last Jedi; but that doesnt make all of that less impressive.

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Fun fact:  Rogue One had a 59% drop with Christmas landing its Sunday.

 

Now maybe I'm going senile, but I sure don't recall people saying it was the end of the world during that weekend.

 

Probably because no one predicted that movie to pull a 3.6+ multiplier, which a shitload of people here were doing for Last Jedi. 

 

Here is a comparison. Last Jedi’s Friday-Saturday gross was 41.5% ahead of Rogue One, which was heavily deflated on Saturday because of Christmas Eve.

 

I have effectively handicapped Rogue One in the above comparison. Last Jedi would reach 710-715 if it can run 41.5% ahead the rest of the way. 

 

I think it will be extemely difficult for Last Jedi to go much higher than 700 at this point. 

[IronJimbo]

4 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Sure there were more conservative predictors out there and I was one of them too, but what about after the OW?

I don't think ANYONE sane would have said under $700m. Heck even $800m felt a lot more plausible to me.

Guess I'm not sane 😎

[fabiopazzo2]

Merry Christmas guys  

[Cmasterclay]

Jumanji already down to the first two or three rows almost everywhere tomorrow, could be heading well past 200 if it keeps holding up like this. Rock needs a couple last hits before his presidential run.

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

Jumanji already down to the first two or three rows almost everywhere tomorrow, could be heading well past 200 if it keeps holding up like this. Rock needs a couple last hits before his presidential run.

 

You mean presidential fight?

 

 

[EpicBoom23]

7 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Another way to look at it: With 365M (and its grosses beeing depressed), TLJ has outgrossed blockbusters such as Inside Out, Deadpool, The Jungle Book (2016) or Furious 7 - in 10 days! Just looking at it from a neutral standpoint, this is amazing.

 

Even with only 29M tomorrow (staying flat with its Sat number), it would stand at 394M, outgrossing GOTG Vol 2 in 11 days. Give it another ( really bad) 25M the next day and it stands at 419, flying by Wonder Woman and Toy Story 3, entering the Top 20 DOM of all time.

 

Of course, all those goals beeing surpassed in a very short time is expected from The Last Jedi; but that doesnt make all of that less impressive.

It actually does make it less impressive, you don't compare an Olympic runner with a great runner on some Local running competitions in a lot lower weight category ... 
With this approach, we can compare LJ with let's say Downsizing, why not right?

[tonytr87]

29 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Even if you don't consider them blockbusters, they are given blockbuster production budgets...so not sure why we should have any other definition for "blockbuster" than that...

Isn't anything that makes over 100mil technically a blockbuster?

[tonytr87]

Not a good hold for TLJ. Banking on it barely crossing 600mil. Obviously nothing to complain about, but it'd be a fairly big drop from Force Awakens. 

[WrathOfHan]

10 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Jumanji already down to the first two or three rows almost everywhere tomorrow, could be heading well past 200 if it keeps holding up like this. Rock needs a couple last hits before his presidential run.

Yeah, several shows at my theater are already booked over 70-80%. That, TLJ, Money, and Showman are all selling like bonkers for tomorrow