Wednesday Numbers(27/12/17):TLJ $22m

[Premium George]

6 minutes ago, Agafin said:

Here's where you are wrong though, NA is also growing. And the growth in foreign markets is shared between local movies and Hollywood so it's not like a market growing by a factor of 2 will mean that every movie grosses twice as much. China is a good example of that. Despite the market increasing by large amounts every year, most franchise movies have effectively remained flat lately: CW grossed less than AoU, non-team up SH movies all land somewhere around $100m similar to Ant Man, JL just about matched BvS, same for FF7 and FF8, Transformers dropped etc.

 

Looking at it another way, Titanic was the Top grosser in 1997 with $601m dom and $1242m OS. Despite all the OS growth in the last 20 years, it's OS number has only been beaten once since then while the DOM number has been topped four times (soon five).

Is titanic re-release number exluded from that? 

[hw64]

6 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Yes, give Avatar a normal domestic-overseas ratio and it's in the Avengers/JW range WW (1.5 to 1.6 billion).

 

OS puts Avatar in another stratosphere.

A near 50/50 split isn't a normal domestic-overseas ratio in 2017 (nor was it in 2009), and that's the only way Avatar only gets to $1.5-$1.6b with $760m domestically.

Edited December 28, 2017 by hw64

[That One Girl]

27 minutes ago, harry713 said:

I've heard the first hour is great and the last 80 minutes are pure dumpster fire. 

 

More like first 40 minutes or so.  I can pinpoint the exact point the movie started to get bad for me (but won’t cause spoilers)

[Barnack]

6 minutes ago, Agafin said:

Here's where you are wrong though, NA is also growing.

Is it, in 2004 the NA market made $12,249.22, 2017 dollar, not sure were it will end in 2017 but it will be under, maybe nearly by a billion.

 

NA did shrink I think without even considering the disappearance of what was by far the main NA market money source, Dvds.

 

in 1997 the second bigget movie oversea, the giant Jurassic Park 2 made 390 million, just to show how ridiculous Titanic run was, second biggest domestic was 250m.

 

in 2016, more movies did beat that 390 million oversea and by larger amount than those who did beat 250m domestic.

[LonePirate]

The TLJ vs. JW showdown is a fun one to watch. There is only $8M or so separating them at the 13 day mark. JW only has 1 day left with a gross north of $20M and 3 other days left with grosses north of $10M. TLJ probably has 3-4 days remaining that are above $20M, with 8-10+ total days remaining above $10M. However, JW has summer weekdays ahead of it while TLJ has winter school days ahead. TLJ should win the showdown but it’s going to be reasonably close unless TLJ sports either extremely long or extremely short legs once the holidays end.

Edited December 28, 2017 by LonePirate

[Barnack]

8 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Yes, give Avatar a normal domestic-overseas ratio and it's in the Avengers/JW range WW (1.5 to 1.6 billion).

 

OS puts Avatar in another stratosphere.

Jurassic World made 1.6 with a lower domestic than Avatar.

 

Give Jurassic World ratio to Avatar and it is still 1.95 billion and would still have been the biggest ever until Titanic re-release, in the much smaller 2009 market, is 27.3% ratio is really good but not Fast and furious level. A Age of Ultron/Iron Man 3 ratio put it at 2.35b, still biggest ever.

[Barnack]

10 minutes ago, damnitgeorge08 said:

Is titanic re-release number exluded from that? 

Titanic is now over 2 billion, those look like Titanic crazy first run numbers of around 1.8b

[Ryan Reynolds]

it seems like overall Holiday boxoffice is pretty weak outside of Jumani and a downsized TLJ

[Mojoguy]

15.15 for Jumanji on Wednesday! Great number

Jumanji with another great number.

HOWEVER, I don't want it to doing 300m because Sony is going to force them to make another sequel if it did. The movie doesn't need one! It can just be one and done, Sony! I want it to do good, but not TOO good!

[Porthos]

R1 dropped 20% off a 30% drop on its Dec 28 day (Wed)

R1 dropped 7% off a 20% drop on its Second Thursday (Dec 29)

 

I think expecting TLJ come in-between those two drops is a good ballpark for today (Thr), since it looks like TLJ dropped approx 22% yesterday and didn't have any drops earlier in the week.

 

5% drop: excellent

10% drop: good

15% drop: expected

20% drop: meh

20%+ drop: bad (I'm prepared to be talked out of this, BTW)

 

Another way to look at this is that by Wednesday last year, R1 had dropped 30% from Xmas day while TLJ has dropped approx 21.7% from its Xmas day, suggesting there is still room to drop if people who were planning on seeing TLJ this week anyway did it in the Chrimbo two day period.

 

Still these calendar placement shifts are enough to make me just go ¯\_(ツ)_/¯  and say I have even less of a clue than I normally do.

[Agafin]

10 minutes ago, James said:

Not really a good example. Titanic was a freak of nature, same with Avatar. Even more than that, there were way fewer blockbusters in 1997 than today. Nowadays you have a big movie coming out every other weekend so the GA's attention is divided.

And the american market, while having slight ups and downs, is stable around 10-11B for almost 10 years now.

The bolded applies both DOM and OS yet Titanic OS number remains the toughest to beat. While that might be assumed to mean that Titanic overperformed OS relative to DOM, it also shows that OS growth is overrated.

[redfirebird2008]

Deadline says $550m by end of the year. Requires about $85m for the 3-day weekend. Probably will turn out bad just like their 88 prediction for 2nd weekend. 

Edited December 28, 2017 by redfirebird2008

[NoLegMan]

PP3 -13% based on latest numbers.

[langer]

1 hour ago, grey ghost said:

So all this talk about Disney in crisis is overblown.

 

TLJ is dropping normally from TFA.

Yeah it's dropping like AoU to Avengers and JL to BvS.  TLJ is doing great guys. 

[Fancyarcher]

6 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Jumanji with another great number.

HOWEVER, I don't want it to doing 300m because Sony is going to force them to make another sequel if it did. The movie doesn't need one! It can just be one and done, Sony! I want it to do good, but not TOO good!

Sony will probably do another Jumanji sequel regardless of whether or not it does 300m. It's been a great success for them. 

[mikee11]

Noo this can't be happening. It was supposed to drop more today.

[Agafin]

22 minutes ago, damnitgeorge08 said:

Is titanic re-release number exluded from that? 

Yes.

[NoLegMan]

I predict 20 Million for TLJ Thursday.

[Barnack]

2 minutes ago, Agafin said:

The bolded applies both DOM and OS yet Titanic OS number remains the toughest to beat. While that might be assumed to mean that Titanic overperformed OS relative to DOM, it also shows that OS growth is overrated.

This is not a completely a bad point.

 

But at least take the top 10 hollywood release (or other relevant number) average by year and see if the domestic progression is has good has the OS one in the last 30 year's.

 

Except for Cameron anomally the first movie in the top OS of all time not from the 2010s is Return of the Kings at number 21, there is 7 non Cameron movie in the top 21 not from the 2010s....

 

Using very small amount of data (here using just one movie) is almost always certain to be a very misleading analysis.

[hw64]

9 minutes ago, Agafin said:

The bolded applies both DOM and OS yet Titanic OS number remains the toughest to beat. While that might be assumed to mean that Titanic overperformed OS relative to DOM, it also shows that OS growth is overrated.

It's far easier to perform well in a single market than it is to basically max out in every single market you release in. Titanic's overseas gross represents exactly that - a huge performance in pretty much every single overseas market it was released in. The only movie to even come close to such consistency huge performances across every market is Avatar. The fact that F7 can near-reach Titanic's original overseas gross despite being basically completely incomparable to it in a vast majority of markets is testament to the kind of growth that overseas has seen over the past 20 years. The fact that Avatar, despite being a shade less successful than Titanic in most overseas markets, could make $2b overseas while Titanic could only make $1.2b, is more proof.

Edited December 28, 2017 by hw64