Spidey Freak Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 10 minutes ago, Mojoguy said: Jumanji with another great number. HOWEVER, I don't want it to doing 300m because Sony is going to force them to make another sequel if it did. The movie doesn't need one! It can just be one and done, Sony! I want it to do good, but not TOO good! Lol Sony finally has a hit franchise other than Spider-Man + to make up for the Bond loss. The hoping for no sequel ship has sailed. You could now hope that they don't greenlight spin-offs in addition to the sequels. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poseidon Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 PP3 could somehow leg it out to $100m after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 10 minutes ago, NoLegMan said: PP3 -13% based on latest numbers. Its doing fine. I laughed the other day when someone wrote BOMB.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoSaysI Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 13 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said: Deadline says $550m by end of the year. Requires about $85m for the 3-day weekend. Probably will turn out bad just like their 88 prediction for 2nd weekend. I was actually wondering if they really meant through the end of the 4 day weekend (which would obviously include January 1). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojoguy Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 (edited) Sony will probably do another Jumanji sequel regardless of whether or not it does 300m. It's been a great success for them. Do you guys think SONY will it do a Jumanji sequel if it just makes 200m DOM? I had been hoping for 250m since I really liked the movie, but if 200m makes it less likely for a sequel... I feel the same way about Wonder Woman, loved the movie but the sequel could be another Thor 2 or Iron man 2. Yeah, I know MONEY, but sometimes it is better to do a mic drop after surprising everybody. Edited December 28, 2017 by Mojoguy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, SoSaysI said: I was actually wondering if they really meant through the end of the 4 day weekend (which would obviously include January 1). Probably what they meant, but they wrote end of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey ghost Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 35 minutes ago, hw64 said: A near 50/50 split isn't a normal domestic-overseas ratio in 2017 (nor was it in 2009), and that's the only way Avatar only gets to $1.5-$1.6b with $760m domestically. Then what is a normal split? 35-65? Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 670m or so is a great Number on its own but to say under 700m was expected is revisionist 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoLegMan Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, John Marston said: 670m or so is a great Number on its own but to say under 700m was expected is revisionist Depends on who you ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB33 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 (edited) 24 minutes ago, Porthos said: R1 dropped 20% off a 30% drop on its Dec 28 day (Wed) R1 dropped 7% off a 20% drop on its Second Thursday (Dec 29) I think expecting TLJ come in-between those two drops is a good ballpark for today (Thr), since it looks like TLJ dropped approx 22% yesterday and didn't have any drops earlier in the week. 5% drop: excellent 10% drop: good 15% drop: expected 20% drop: meh 20%+ drop: bad (I'm prepared to be talked out of this, BTW) Another way to look at this is that by Wednesday last year, R1 had dropped 30% from Xmas day while TLJ has dropped approx 21.7% from its Xmas day, suggesting there is still room to drop if people who were planning on seeing TLJ this week anyway did it in the Chrimbo two day period. Still these calendar placement shifts are enough to make me just go ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ and say I have even less of a clue than I normally do. Yeah, the calendar is really screwing with us, especially since we haven't seen this configuration since 2006. So much has changed and there are so many more variables that we can't really use data from that year as a comparison anyway. Well, actually to a degree it has been a compass for us in terms of very general behaviour and trends but it's still not exactly comparable. There was nothing like TLJ on the December 15 slot back then. As a very analytical person, I think that's what's frustrating me. I've got almost no data as a reliable predictor and the calendar is probably at its most impactful at this time of year so recent years are not helpful to refer to either. In the end, I'm way less disappointed in TLJ's performance than I look. It's just been a big lesson in box office and I'm still navigating it. Edited December 28, 2017 by JB33 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudalb Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 16 minutes ago, Fancyarcher said: Sony will probably do another Jumanji sequel regardless of whether or not it does 300m. It's been a great success for them. And the first really good news at the box office Sony had has for some time. And given how Franchise hungry Sony is....and it seems it is going to lose one of it's really big franchises with 007 leaving...you can bet your butt Sony with try to turn Jumanji into a franchise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porthos Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Looking a bit ahead, TLJ will still have 198 showings this upcoming Friday across all theaters I keep an eye on in the Greater Sacramento Area, down from 281 showings on its Opening Friday (didn't check last Friday). It hasn't left any of the theaters I look at (and technically added one, as it opened last week). As expected, it has been moved to to screens with less seats in many locations, though it is still getting some screen time on the largest screens as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoLegMan Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, JB33 said: Yeah, the calendar is really screwing with us, especially since we haven't seen this configuration since 2006. So much has changed and there are so many more variables that we can't really use data from that year as a comparison anyway. Well, actually to a degree it has been a compass for us in terms of very general behaviour and trends but it's still not exactly comparable. There was nothing like TLJ on the December 15 slot back then. As a very analytical person, I think that's what's frustrating me. I've got almost no data as a reliable predictor and the calendar is probably at its most impactful at this time of year so recent years are not helpful to refer to either. In the end, I'm way less disappointed in TLJ's performance than I look. It's just been a big lesson in box office and I'm still navigating it. Lesson learned never underestimate the calendar configuration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hw64 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 (edited) 12 minutes ago, grey ghost said: Then what is a normal split? 35-65? Lol. The vast majority of the 2017 top worldwide grossers have domestic/overseas splits that are at least 40/60, with most being at 35/65 or above. The only really notable exceptions are It and Wonder Woman (both over-performed domestically), Guardians 2, and The Last Jedi. In fact, the average domestic/overseas split of the top 40 highest-grossing films of 2017 is 30/70. Edited December 28, 2017 by hw64 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 8 minutes ago, Mojoguy said: Do you guys think SONY will it do a Jumanji sequel if it just makes 200m DOM? I had been hoping for 250m since I really liked the movie, but if 200m makes it less likely for a sequel... I feel the same way about Wonder Woman, loved the movie but the sequel could be another Thor 2 or Iron man 2. Yeah, I know MONEY, but sometimes it is better to do a mic drop after surprising everybody. A sequel is 100% locked no matter what IMO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattW Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 The newer people don't know how Rth gets his numbers, and frankly a lot of the regulars don't know either. See most people think that he extrapolates a full day from just a sample of theaters returns only partway through the day while watching the presale to walkup ratio to guesttimate how the movie will do for showtimes that are hours from even starting to get within ±3% of the actual number that we don't see until 12-18 hours later. But in reality the numbers come from visions of ecstasy that he has at various hollywood orgies (which is why we get more numbers when there are bigger movies out, cause hollywood just can't help itself), and in these visions it's always the exact number down to the penny that appears to him. I can't remember a single time he's been off by any tiny margin. No reason to infer the tiniest confidence interval in numbers that come in before some people even know they're going to the theater that night let alone which movie they're going to see. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junkshop36 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 I’m confused about some of this 500-600m OS talk. Are people being serious or just messing around? It’s sitting at 446m after grossing 26m on Wednesday and should be well past 500m by the new year. This movies doing 600+ without China. Add in the China gross I think it hits 700+ OS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoLegMan Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Eragon fell 3.8% on the same Thursday, if TLJ did that it would be interesting, I think it will be 5-7% though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey ghost Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 22 minutes ago, langer said: Yeah it's dropping like AoU to Avengers and JL to BvS. TLJ is doing great guys. Since when are 10-20% drops from a record breaking previous movie NORMAL? The only example I can think of is Spider-man 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudalb Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, fmpro said: A sequel is 100% locked no matter what IMO No Brainer for Sony, which right now only has the Spidey Franchise locked up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
