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Wednesday Numbers(27/12/17):TLJ $22m

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Just now, JB33 said:

Can TLJ stay relatively flat today? I'm hoping for a little over $20M.

 

I think nobody can say that really. Comparing TLJ's run with 2006 movies didnt work and comparing it with Rogue One/TFA doesnt really work either given the calendar. It could do anything imo, but a decrease between 5 and 10 percent is the most likely at least for me.

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Just now, Mojoguy said:

Sequel incoming?

Wouldn't surprise me, tbh.  But, dunno.  Expecting lighting to strike twice? Just got a warning feeling in my guts over the possibility.

 

I nearly think part of the reaction to Jumanji is that it's actually good. People were expecting something either schlocky or out right bad.  That they got a charming movie with heart instead might be fueling some of its box office run.  Especially in this current sociopolitical environment.

 

Now I'm not one of those to poo-poo sequels.  I mean, obviously.  But even beyond that, if people want to revisit a place in more movies, more power to them.  I'm just not entirely sure what one can actually DO with the Jumanji concept in a sequel.  Maybe I'll be surprised and something can be brought to the table here.  And, hell, just seeing folks run through the challenges of Jumanji a third time (technically) should be fun.

 

But, I'd temper expectations if I were Sony, is what I guess I am saying.

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10 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Can TLJ stay relatively flat today? I'm hoping for a little over $20M.

Maybe?  On an actual Wed-to-Wed basis, it was at a R1 drop yesterday (R1: -20% | TLJ: -21%).  R1 dropped 7% on its Second Thursday, so I suppose it's possible for TLJ to have a sub 10% drop.

 

FTR, it needs to have no worse than a 8.45% drop to keep it above 20m

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So BoxOffice.com thinks 20% decline? Seems very pessimistic. That’s 21-21-14 for the three days. Why would it increase 0% on Friday and 0% Saturday? I would have it at 23-26-17 personally. Small 15% increase or so both Friday and Saturday. 

 

Bottom line I see 5-10% decline this weekend not 20%.

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1 hour ago, grim22 said:

Coco's holiday run has been somewhat underwhelming. It came into the holidays about 8M behind Moana with pretty comparable dailies and will probably end up 35M or so behind Moana on New Years Day despite much lower direct animated competition. Jumanji and TLJ probably hurt it a lot.

How is it disappointing? It has a higher PTA than Ferdinand.

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1 minute ago, JonathanLB said:

So BoxOffice.com thinks 20% decline? Seems very pessimistic. That’s 21-21-14 for the three days. Why would it increase 0% on Friday and 0% Saturday? I would have it at 23-26-17 personally. Small 15% increase or so both Friday and Saturday. 

 

Bottom line I see 5-10% decline this weekend not 20%.

I agree they seem to be playing it super safe.

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1 hour ago, langer said:

Yet TLJ is about to drop 30%... Here's a look at other record breaking follow up as far as OW is concerned.  TLJ is looking to be towards the bottom of this list. 

 

Batman Forever increased 13%

SM2 dropped 8%,

TDKR dropped 15%,

HP2 dropped 18%,

AoU dropped 26%

POTC 3 dropped 27%

TLW dropped 35%

Batman & Robin dropped 42%

 

I was mostly referring to record breaking domestic runs.

 

OW is a different animal.

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