New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[Webslinger]

Just now, DeeReyEgonnnnn said:

So, how about them numbers?

Noooooooo... that will only lead back to more arguments about The Last Jedi's word-of-mouth! 

[Porthos]

Just now, redfirebird2008 said:

Rogue is pretty strong evidence of weaker WOM. 

TFA?  Absolutely agree.  Undeniable.  No contest.

R1?  Ya know, I'm really not 100% convinced.

 

Is there really a hell of a lot difference between a film that opens up at 155 and has a 3.5x (rounding) and one that opens up at 220 and has a 3x (guessing)?

 

To be honest, I can't say for sure "Yes".  Even with it underperforming, TLJ is going to do 400 to 450 million dollars after its opening weekend.  R1, by comparison did around 375.

 

I can absolutely see the case for saying it has about the same WOM as R1.  I'll even say a little more or less in either direction.

 

I just don't know if we can say it with clarity.  To me there is a hell of a difference between a 155 opener and a 220 one, calendar be damned.

[jb007]

As a diversion, a report of Jumani. 

 

After the heavy praise it got from many here, I was absolutely disappointed. It was a piece of shit ala Night at the Museum. A bland "Family" movie that is good only as far as the interactions go between the characters. Characters, story, villain, over used dick jokes make it a boring affair.  The original was inventive and fresh. 

Edited December 31, 2017 by jb007

[JonathanLB]

2 minutes ago, Cookson said:

 

Grow up.

Umm sorry I’m not mature enough to appreciate bestiality. I guess thats where liberal tolerance had to go next? Lol.

[That One Girl]

9 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

Shape of Water blew, sorry but if I wanted to watch bestiality I would be on PornHub.

 

damn, and you were doing so well this year.

[a2k]

31 minutes ago, Empire said:

What is going on in this thread....

 

Not you, the other Empire

 

[JonathanLB]

PS: If a movie doesn’t clear $700M with at least a 3.5x multiple I think we can all agree it’s a shameful piece of shit that audiences rejected. 

[Cookson]

2 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

Umm sorry I’m not mature enough to appreciate bestiality. I guess thats where liberal tolerance had to go next? Lol.

You think that is what the film was? Did you not watch it? Serious question.

 

[JonathanLB]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

 

damn, and you were doing so well this year.

Hahaha you’re so funny. I am being dramatic it wasn’t by any means at all a BAD movie. That’s silly. It was a WEIRD movie. I just didn’t get it. Like I enjoyed the atmosphere and performances but man oh man maybe just too weird for me. I would give it a solid C. I wanted to like it and I did love the cinematography and craft of the picture. The story left me a bit cold and creeped out.

[Empire]

 

2 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Not you, the other Empire

 

Yeah, I know.

 

Still.... 

[baumer]

3 hours ago, jb007 said:

As a diversion, a report of Jumani. 

 

After the heavy praise it got from many here, I was absolutely disappointed. It was a piece of shit ala Night at the Museum. A bland "Family" movie that is good only as far as the interactions go between the characters. Characters, story, villain, over used dick jokes make it a boring affair.  The original was inventive and fresh. 

 

The dick jokes made me laugh. 

 

[jb007]

1 minute ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

The dick jokes made me laugh. 

 

So did I,the first time.

 

When they went with it second and third time, it got repetitive and boring. 

[That One Girl]

Jumanji has a delightful first two acts and a pretty lame third act.  If they had kept the same energy as they had in the first two acts then I'd have pretty much loved it.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Really happy with the surprising success of Jumanji.  I feel Sony gets way too much hate by some people so it's nice to see them have a good year.

 

As for TLJ I can only give my anecdotal thoughts but my 9 Year Old Sister describes the film as "awesome" and "epic". And she is one person who never was that interested in Star Wars before TFA so Disney must be doing something right with this franchise. 

Edited December 31, 2017 by Darth Lehnsherr

[MrGlass2]

43 minutes ago, Empire said:

What is going on in this thread....

 

So much anger...

 

[The Futurist]

Disney will move Episode 9 from Christmas because of Jumanji : Back to the City Too.

You read it first here.

Edited December 31, 2017 by The Futurist

[K1stpierre]

21 minutes ago, Porthos said:

If he does agree will you two just kiss and make up already?

 

[redfirebird2008]

8 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

PS: If a movie doesn’t clear $700M with at least a 3.5x multiple I think we can all agree it’s a shameful piece of shit that audiences rejected. 

 

Nah...but some of us weren’t going off the deep end projecting based on Pursuit of Happyness. We got laughed out of the building for suggesting it could go under 700 with a TDKR/Ultron kind of drop. 

[jb007]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

TFA?  Absolutely agree.  Undeniable.  No contest.

R1?  Ya know, I'm really not 100% convinced.

 

Is there really a hell of a lot difference between a film that opens up at 155 and has a 3.5x (rounding) and one that opens up at 220 and has a 3x (guessing)?

 

To be honest, I can't say for sure "Yes".  Even with it underperforming, TLJ is going to do 400 to 450 million dollars after its opening weekend.  R1, by comparison did around 375.

 

I can absolutely see the case for saying it has about the same WOM as R1.  I'll even say a little more or less in either direction.

 

I just don't know if we can say it with clarity.  To me there is a hell of a difference between a 155 opener and a 220 one, calendar be damned.

If the negative buzz does exist and I feel it does exist, it is a small percentage. A $700M gross for TLJ would have satisfied everyone, but BJ. 

 

$660M (final projection) would be very good. So the difference between "Good WOM" and "Divisive WOM" is about $40M. That amounts to about 6% of the projected gross.

[JonathanLB]

1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Nah...but some of us weren’t going off the deep end projecting based on Pursuit of Happyness. We got laughed out of the building for suggesting it could go under 700 with a TDKR/Ultron kind of drop. 

Didn’t Pursuit get a 6 multiple or something? I don’t think anyone believed it would duplicate that the whole run otherwise it would be at $1.3B or something ha ha.

 

I did find under $700M laughable. And I was wrong. It happens. Being wrong is part of predicting sadly