New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[grim22]

Pretty weak-ass Friday number for TLJ, will decrease over the 3 and 4 day from last week when everything else increases. Great for Jumanji, will most likely be #1 next weekend ahead of TLJ.

[a2k]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

Damnnnn at Greatest Showman. Could hit 100M.

At least 80 will happen imo. It's prod budget is 84. If it can do 80-90 dom and 60-70 os, the ww will be respectable at 140-160.

[a2k]

Just now, grim22 said:

Pretty weak-ass Friday number for TLJ, will decrease over the 3 and 4 day from last week when everything else increases. Great for Jumanji, will most likely be #1 next weekend ahead of TLJ.

Tyrese has the same reaction to both TLJ and Jumanji's numbers ...

 

Spoiler

 

 

[grim22]

2 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Ferdi at 4.7 vs Coco 2.9.They were neck and neck on CD with Coco edging Ferdi out 2.805 vs 2.802.

After a low start, Coco was actually closing the gap on Moana before the holidays, it just never got that big holiday bump that Moana got even with the presence of Sing. Will end the holidays 35M behind Moana's running total by the looks of it.

[Eric Loves Rey]

2 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Pretty weak-ass Friday number for TLJ, will decrease over the 3 and 4 day from last week when everything else increases. Great for Jumanji, will most likely be #1 next weekend ahead of TLJ.

I like seeing Jumanji break out, but

 

[Porthos]

10 minutes ago, ReyReyBattery said:

At least it didn't decrease?

 

(famous last words)

[Mojoguy]

grim22, can you update the topic title with the new numbers?

Edited December 30, 2017 by Mojoguy

[grim22]

IF TLJ sees a weak New Years Day increase similar to its Christmas Day increase, then there is a definite shot for Jumanji winning the 4 day weekend this week.

[Fancyarcher]

1 minute ago, grim22 said:

After a low start, Coco was actually closing the gap on Moana before the holidays, it just never got that big holiday bump that Moana got even with the presence of Sing. Will end the holidays 35M behind Moana's running total by the looks of it.

Unfortunately it looks like Coco was really hurt by competition. 

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

The Post staying flat is a bit disappointing. I guess there was somewhat of a rush in metro areas? It shouldn't have the same issue when it goes wide.

It's limited numbers don't really matter. It's a wide studio release that received a platform start ahead of time so it could qualify for awards.

 

Not that your $200M+ prediction is gonna come true because it won't.

[KP1025]

Coco lost too many theaters before the holidays compared to Moana unfortunately. 

[filmlover]

Pitch Perfect 3 should cross $100M (albeit barely) now and The Greatest Showman has a good shot at $80M+. Just goes to show that you can't write a movie off based on its pre-Christmas numbers.

[DeeCee]

The big question. 

 

Any update for Bright’s streaming numbers?

[La Binoche]

I'm curious to see how The Post does in wide release - it will tell us if Meryl Streep's career and brand have been tarnished by recent events. Will the #SheKnew accusations (apparently it's her fault that actresses agreed to take meetings in Harvey Weinstein's bed) negatively affect her career? 

[redfirebird2008]

17 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Industry estimates for the weekend of Dec. 29-31, 2017:

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi(DIS), 4,232 theaters (0)/ $19.6M (-21%) Fri/ 3-day: $56M  (-22%)/4-day: $74.2M Total:$538.9M/ Wk 3
2. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle  (SONY), 3,765 theaters (0) / $17.4M Fri (+44%)/3-day: $50.1M (+38%)/4-day: $66.3M/Total:$185.6M/ Wk 2
3. Pitch Perfect 3  (UNI), 3,468 theaters (+21)/ $6.7M (-37%) Fri/3-day: $18.3M(-8%)/4-day: $23.5M/Total: $70M/ Wk 2
4. The Greatest Showman  (FOX), 3,316 theaters (+310) / $5.3M (+71%) Fri /3-day: $16M (+82%)/4-day $21.2M/Total: $54.8M/Wk 2
5. Ferdinand  (FOX), 3,337 theaters (-293) / $4.7M (+74%)Fri /3-day: $12.8M(+75%)/4-day: $16.9M/Total: $59M/ Wk 3
6. Coco(DIS), 2,104 theaters (-7) / $2.9M (+61%) Fri/3-day: $7.6M (+41%)/4-day:$9.9M/Total: $182.3M / Wk 6
7. Darkest Hour (FOC), 943 theaters (+137)/ $1.8M Fri (+29%)/3-day: $5.5M(+41%)/ 4-day: $7.2M/ Total: $19.9M/ Wk 6
8. All The Money in the World (Sony) 2,074 theaters (+6)/ $1.75M Fri/3-day:$5.4M/4-day: $7.1M/Total: $14.3M/Wk 1
9. Downsizing  (PAR), 2,664 theaters (-4)/ $1.6M Fri (-20%) /3-day: $5M (+2%)/ 4-day: $6.7M/Total: $19.1M/ Wk 2
10. Wonder (LG), 1,193 theaters (+63) / $1.3M Fri (+63%) /3-day: $3.7M (+85%)/4-day: $4.8M /Total: $123.1M/ Wk 7
11. The Shape of Water  (FSL), 756 theaters (+26)  / $1.1m Fri (0%) /3-day: $3.6M(+18%)/4-day: $4.7M/Total: $16.8M/Wk 5
12. Father Figures (ALC/WB), 2,902 theaters (0)/ $1.1M Fri (-20%) /3-day: $3.3M(+2%)/ 4-day: $4.4M/ Total: $13.4M/ Wk 2
13. Molly’s Game (STX) 271 theaters/$720K Fri/3-day: $2.2m/4-day: $3M/Total: $5.9M/ Wk 1

Notables:

The Post  (FOX/DW), 9 theaters (0) / $174K (+10%) Fri /3-day: $524K (0%)/PTA: $58K/4-day $711K/Total: $1.9M/Wk 2

Phantom Thread  (FOC), 4 theaters (0) / $70K  Fri /3-day: $221K /PTA: $55K/4-day $309K/Total: $620K/Wk 1

Hostiles  (ES), 5 theaters (+2) / $8K  Fri  (+14%)/3-day: $25K  (+11%)/PTA: $5K/4-day $34K/Total: $86K/Wk 2

 

So the BOM prediction might be spot on for TLJ at $57m over 3-day weekend. Seemed too low this afternoon but looks pretty realistic now if Friday is around $20m. 

[filmlover]

Phantom Thread is appearing to have been quite frontloaded in limited release. Not too surprised but still. It's probably not gonna make much more than The Master did (if even that) unless it gets a ton of noms including Best Picture (which looks doubtful at the moment).

Edited December 30, 2017 by filmlover

[Eric Loves Rey]

5 minutes ago, La Binoche said:

I'm curious to see how The Post does in wide release - it will tell us if Meryl Streep's career and brand have been tarnished by recent events. Will the #SheKnew accusations (apparently it's her fault that actresses agreed to take meetings in Harvey Weinstein's bed) negatively affect her career? 

Good thing Thomas the Hanks Engine is there to save the day.

[That One Girl]

My first post advertising this club was deleted even though it doesn’t break any rules, but I made a new club. Y’all should join

 

 

[La Binoche]

Surprised to see Ocean's 8 on here...if it's another hit for Sandra Bullock, she'll have the longest reign (with some definite downs) as a box office powerhouse since...? 

 

https://www.thewrap.com/avengers-infinity-war-and-black-panther-fans-most-anticipated-movies-of-2018/

[Ryan Reynolds]

2 minutes ago, La Binoche said:

Surprised to see Ocean's 8 on here...if it's another hit for Sandra Bullock, she'll have the longest reign (with some definite downs) as a box office powerhouse since...? 

 

https://www.thewrap.com/avengers-infinity-war-and-black-panther-fans-most-anticipated-movies-of-2018/

Ghostbusters 2016 was most anticipated comedy of 2016, might not mean much