Weekend Thread - Insidious 29.6M, Jumanji 37.2M, TLJ 23.7M, TGS 13.8M, PP3 10.3

[WrathOfHan]

28 minutes ago, La Binoche said:

 

 

Y'all keep laughing at my 200M prediction.

[Rumpot]

11 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Netflix was a huge money loser at the beginning, too...as was Amazon...you can't look at "will they make money or do they have enough money to pay" b/c industry has shown if someone believes in the idea, someone will keep bankrolling it...

 

I mean, every month we hear they are going under...and every month they just get bigger and bigger...

 

(I remember Walmart also believing all its dot.com competitors would go under - Value America did, but Amazon didn't...its belief that it didn't need to compete b/c it would win really hit Walmart for years)...

The stock falling from almost $40 to $5 (ticker - HMNY) as they have to grant warrants to convince investors to fund it doesn't suggest a lot of belief....The market cap of the entire company is 150M...they arent going to be able to raise many multiples of what the market values the entire company at

[a2k]

9 minutes ago, New Year New Panda said:

Jumanji’s definitely a major box office story, I thought it had breakout potential but I was thinking that meant like 150m not 300m+

It should over take Sing next FSS, even before the MLK Monday.

 

excluding 1.9m pre-sales for Jumanji,

10-day cume: 140.5m Sing vs 134.7m Jumanji

19-day cume: 214.5m Sing vs 242.5m Jumanji

 

edit: delayed holiday thing was for real

Edited January 7, 2018 by a2knet

[jb007]

31 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Studios run on profits and TLJ is profitable but obviously less profitable than TFA, and likely less profitable than the studio expected. There's no reason to believe they did not expect 3x multi after TFA and RO managed to go over. Especially after such glowing reviews. 

 

Moreover, perception is important cause less competition = better chance at higher profitability so now that everyone sees that SW can be challenged, studios won't hold back. 

 

Point being, profitability is important but even within profitability there's higher and lower profitability and you bet they want higher one. Especially since TLJ toy/merch sales are reportedly down too (though part of the problem is Toy'R'Us situation but still they are not making as much money as they used to). 

I hope you are kidding. 99.99% of the movies made will turn less profit than TFA. Let's get it out of the way.

 

How does one know what the studio expectation was? If they went by TPM/AOTC or ANH/ESB drops, their realistic expectation would have been around a 30% drop from TFA. TLJ drop will be in that vicinity. OS grosses are exactly what most expected it to be specially with the ER hit to the biggest market, UK. China would have never a been a serious market when Rogue One under performed even with Donnie Yen and Jiang Wen in solid roles instead of roles to attract Chinese moviegoers. 

 

Personally, I feel TLJ left about $70M on the table Domestc and none OS. Even with that metric, the potential lost will be around 4 to 5%. That is based on my perception. 

Edited January 7, 2018 by jb007

[Rumpot]

16 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Netflix was a huge money loser at the beginning, too...as was Amazon...you can't look at "will they make money or do they have enough money to pay" b/c industry has shown if someone believes in the idea, someone will keep bankrolling it...

 

I mean, every month we hear they are going under...and every month they just get bigger and bigger...

 

(I remember Walmart also believing all its dot.com competitors would go under - Value America did, but Amazon didn't...its belief that it didn't need to compete b/c it would win really hit Walmart for years)...

Also, the only reason they haven't already gone under is they aren't funding enough tickets.  It's a catch-22.  

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, DAR said:

I know @EmpireCity has said the Moviepass model won’t be sustainable and that theater chains are likely going to start offering their own version 

The theater chains (and probably studios, too) are banking on a Value America story and not an Amazon one...but you have to understand, many of these big companies now in 2018 ran enormous losses while they "grew"...again, IF you're growing and IF the market believes you have a solid idea, the spigot really never turns off...this company has a former Netflix head at the top - the market is gonna give him a lot of leeway and trust to know what he's doing...they may regret it, but they'll still probably do it...so it dying is not certain and if it does, but not VERY soon, it will have a domino effect on the industry...at some point, they themselves may need to help save it (thus, the thought that MoviePass will probably eventually get ticket price deals if it gets big enough)...

[titanic2187]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

 

Y'all keep laughing at my 200M prediction.

[Avatree]

Fantastic drop for Greatest Showman. It's well on its way to 100M which I don't think anyone saw coming.

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

 

Y'all keep laughing at my 200M prediction.

[DAR]

Jumanji is quite the juggernaut.  I am curious to see how it would have done if it didn’t have to compete with one of the biggest movies ever

[Alli]

Just now, filmlover said:

Your avatar offends me.

[TwoMisfits]

5 minutes ago, Rumpot said:

Also, the only reason they haven't already gone under is they aren't funding enough tickets.  It's a catch-22.  

I just remember reading stuff like this back in 2001...everyone was convinced Amazon was done, too...and its losses were enormous...

https://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/print/20000207/39547-pw-sales-losses-soar-at-amazon-com-in-1999.html

 

https://revenuesandprofits.com/amazon-vs-walmart-revenues-and-profits-1995-2014/

 

Great chart, here...

Edited January 7, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[WrathOfHan]

3 day predictions for next week:

 

The Post: 35M

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle: 22M

Paddington 2: 16M

Insidious: The Last Key: 13.2M

Proud Mary: 13M

Star Wars: The Last Jedi: 12M

The Commuter: 10M

The Greatest Showman: 9.5M

Molly's Game: 5.6M

Pitch Perfect 3: 5.5M

[Rumpot]

4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

I just remember reading stuff like this back in 2001...everyone was convinced Amazon was done, too...and its losses were enormous...

https://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/print/20000207/39547-pw-sales-losses-soar-at-amazon-com-in-1999.html

 

https://revenuesandprofits.com/amazon-vs-walmart-revenues-and-profits-1995-2014/

 

Great chart, here...

Amazon has always had huge cash flow....their losses were in the massive spending on intrastructure, growth.  Comparing moviepass to amazon is silly.  They lose a TON on the sale itself...no one even talks about salary expense, growth expense.  Night and day to me...moviepass is a very clear scam.  

If I start a service where you pay me $10/month and I add $10 to your account every day I bet I will see a lot of signups...

 

anyway, enough from me on this topic as I think it is too much of an outbranch from the main one

Edited January 7, 2018 by Rumpot

[TwoMisfits]

7 minutes ago, Rumpot said:

Amazon has always had huge cash flow....their losses were in the massive spending on intrastructure, growth.  Comparing moviepass to amazon is silly.  They lose a TON on the sale itself...no one even talks about salary expense, growth expense.  Night and day to me...moviepass is a very clear scam.  

If I start a service where you pay me $10/month and I add $10 to your account every day I bet I will see a lot of signups...

But if you take all the customers in a neighborhood, get them to use a $10/service (vs say $50/service), how many customers would ever go back to the old service at the $50 price point whether or not you stayed in business?  A few would, yes, but many would decide to see if someone else popped up offering a similar price point or if they could just live without it, now that they know someone would give them this deal for $10...

 

It's transformational...there is no doubt this is transforming the industry...whether it was a nice or cool way to do it - that's out of my discussion league...how and when industry itself ultimately decides to react - that's out of my league (since it took Walmart like 15 years)...I just deal in the reality of "now", not "what could have been"...although by theaters jacking ticket prices so hard and fast, it probably opened the door for this kinda move (like Blockbuster did when it moved from $2/night to $5/night so rapidly)...

 

For now, though, it's gonna help BO for movies...and that is what we discuss here...so look for better-than-expected BO til this all changes:)...the surprises will be to the downside, not the upside for movie BO...

Edited January 7, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[Amadeus]

quite enrmous weekend. Jan 8-10 2015 grossed a total of $148m (TFA and revenant). This weekends at $147m (est.)

 

 

[Jonwo]

Has a director ever had two films hitting number 1 in the same year? Spielberg will achieve it with The Post and Ready Player One, I'd like to say Zemeckis has done it but I'm not certain. 

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Amadeus said:

quite enrmous weekend. Jan 8-10 2015 grossed a total of $148m (TFA and revenant). This weekends at $147m (est.)

 

 

The biggest January weekend on record I believe is January 16-19, 2015 ($250M). It's unlikely we'll see that topped this year but the month (and year) is already off to a great start.

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Has a director ever had two films hitting number 1 in the same year? Spielberg will achieve it with The Post and Ready Player One, I'd like to say Zemeckis has done it but I'm not certain. 

Phil Lord and Chris Miller did it just four years ago (The LEGO Movie and 22 Jump Street).

[EmpireCity]

13 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

The theater chains (and probably studios, too) are banking on a Value America story and not an Amazon one...but you have to understand, many of these big companies now in 2018 ran enormous losses while they "grew"...again, IF you're growing and IF the market believes you have a solid idea, the spigot really never turns off...this company has a former Netflix head at the top - the market is gonna give him a lot of leeway and trust to know what he's doing...they may regret it, but they'll still probably do it...so it dying is not certain and if it does, but not VERY soon, it will have a domino effect on the industry...at some point, they themselves may need to help save it (thus, the thought that MoviePass will probably eventually get ticket price deals if it gets big enough)...

 

You are going to see nearly every theater roll out their own version this year and many will refuse to take MoviePass in the near future.   

 

It is coming and the theaters see the game going on.  They aren't going to allow MoviePass to drive a wedge between them and the data on their customers. 

 

This also isn't comparable to Amazon or Netflix in my opinion.  It wasn't like people were walking into Wal-Mart with an Amazon card and picking up a ton of items and swiping the card at the register and when Netflix gets a subscription they aren't having to turn around and pay out sometimes 10x the amount to a studio if someone watches a bunch of movies.  It is pennies and not on the same level.