Weekend Thread | 3-day estimates (per BOM): J 27M, TP 18.6M, TC 13.45M, I:TLK 12.14M, TGS 11.8M, TLJ 11.28M, P2 10.62M, PM 10M

[JohnnyGossamer]

16 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

TLJ looks like will collapse soon with more and more released.

 

 Pretty much will be spent by President Day Weekend.

 

Now lets see if it fails to beat the TA

Pretty crazy that the FSS number could very well dip 50%+ even with a holiday Monday to boost up Sunday.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Just now, mikee11 said:

Showman passing Jedi isn't happening isn't it 

Not this weekend. Next weekend it almost definitely will though.

[Jonwo]

It wouldn’t be the first time a British film which did boffo business didn’t catch on in the US, see Bridget Jones, The BFG to Name but a few. It doesn’t matter because it’s done solid business already and a third film is all but locked 

 

The Post is doing fine, it’ll be leggy like Bridge of Spies, a 4 multi is possible which should bring it to $80-90m

[JohnnyGossamer]

Just now, Jonwo said:

It wouldn’t be the first time a British film which did boffo business didn’t catch on in the US, see Bridget Jones, The BFG to Name but a few. It doesn’t matter because it’s done solid business already and a third film is all but locked 

This.

[Blaze Heatnix]

It seems The Commuter might be making a profit for Lionsgate, once it hits 20 million...

 

http://deadline.com/2018/01/the-commuter-proud-mary-jumanji-paddington-2-mlk-weekend-box-office-1202241724/

 

 

Lionsgate is only on the hook for P&A for StudioCanal’s Liam Neeson action pic The Commuter which is coming in 4th with $14.7M over four-days. Sources peg those costs to be around $30M to get this film open on 2,892 theaters. One insider argues that if film gets to $20M, the pic will be profitable for Lionsgate. Other executives in the industry can’t figure out the math on that one: Plain and simple, Lionsgate is in the hole for an estimated $30M

[filmlover]

I, Tonya is expanding really nicely at least. Gonna be at over $10M by the end of the weekend and hasn't reached 600 theaters (aka "wide release") yet. This could become a very solid grosser in the end.

[WrathOfHan]

Holy fuck, WOM is spreading FAST on Proud Mary. That and The Commuter are going to drop like rocks.

Showman is going to be ahead of Paddington  

That's decent for I, Tonya.

Phantom Thread is proving to be frontloaded, but I think it'll fare ok when it expands over the next two weeks.

I'm not totally shocked by Insidious' drop. If there's any Oscar player expanding next week, I imagine midsize theaters wouldn't be opposed to putting it split screen with Paddington.

 

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Phantom Thread is proving to be frontloaded, but I think it'll fare ok when it expands over the next two weeks.

Ads for it say "Everywhere January 19." Probably gonna be in about 800 theaters or so. Personally I'll be surprised if it does much more than $10M total.

[MCKillswitch123]

Agreed, regarding Phantom Thread. I just don't think that's a movie that will appeal to audiences much, if at all. Daniel Day-Lewis' last hurrah as a hook can only do so much if the theme is not interesting enough to bring the GA in, and considering Paul Thomas Anderson's filmmaking style, this whole movie just seems like a GA turn-off. 10M total seems fair (that would be above what Inherent Vice did, so it would still be a step up for PTA).

 

I, Tonya did have a pretty good increase, though. Three Billboards also stepping to the spotlight really strongly as well. And Darkest Hour might be one of the most impressive limited runs of 2017; not a whole lot of people expected it to do as strongly as it did.

 

Btw, it would be TRAGIC if Paddington 2 didn't even make the top 5 for the 3-day. If that happens, I will adopt @CJohn's Trashmerica motto.

[EmpireCity]

You can blame the studios for the current mess at the box office.  They all did a terrible job of spreading out the release calendar.  

 

I said it weeks ago that this was going to get ugly on some level because they crammed way too much into the last 5 weeks and it hurts everyone including themselves because nothing has a chance to breathe.  

 

Something should have moved back to 1/19 and 1/26 and even 2/2.  Now there is a situation where everything is smoked this weekend and there are like 3 movies releasing between now and 2/8.  It's fucking ridiculous.  

[filmlover]

Just now, EmpireCity said:

You can blame the studios for the current mess at the box office.  They all did a terrible job of spreading out the release calendar.  

That's been happening every year at this time since box office charts were created. Business as usual.

[Boxofficerules]

Too many movies coming out

Edited January 13, 2018 by Boxofficerules

[JohnnyGossamer]

6 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

You can blame the studios for the current mess at the box office.  They all did a terrible job of spreading out the release calendar.  

 

I said it weeks ago that this was going to get ugly on some level because they crammed way too much into the last 5 weeks and it hurts everyone including themselves because nothing has a chance to breathe.  

 

Something should have moved back to 1/19 and 1/26 and even 2/2.  Now there is a situation where everything is smoked this weekend and there are like 3 movies releasing between now and 2/8.  It's fucking ridiculous.  

Thoughts on Deadpool 2's new release date?

 

Deadline's latest update pretty much accurate? Thanks!

Edited January 13, 2018 by JohnnyGossamer

[WrathOfHan]

The Post is shockingly down from yesterday at my theater, though I wager seniors don't want to deal with crowds. If it follows Darkest Hour, there are going to be monster weekdays.

Proud Mary is having a HUGE drop today.

The Commuter is roughly the same as yesterday.

Meanwhile, the first Paddington show only has 19 people, the second has 6, and the rest of the day is empty save for the Sensory Friendly show with 5. YIKES.

Edited January 13, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[EmpireCity]

20 minutes ago, filmlover said:

That's been happening every year at this time since box office charts were created. Business as usual.

 

This year is worse than most, especially last year. 

 

On the same weekend last year there were 3 wide releases and this year there are 4.

 

The weekend of 1/19 had 3 wide releases last year and 2 this year.

 

The weekend of 1/26 had 3 wide releases last year and 1 this year.

 

The weekend of 2/2 had 2 wide releases last year and 1 this year.  

 

From 1/19-2/2 there was 8 releases last year vs. 5 this year.  

 

They fucked up badly this year, but at least starting after next weekend the Oscar content will have a few weeks to get back into theaters and do some good business before 2/9 and Black Panther the following weekend.  

[titanic2187]

27 minutes ago, filmlover said:

That's been happening every year at this time since box office charts were created. Business as usual.

They are all paving the way for oscar players.....i guess the expansion plan and surge in box office will be significant due to moviepass+ lack of new release  

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

The weekend of 1/19 had 3 wide releases last year and 2 this year.

 

Is Hostiles going into 3k theaters like Deadline reported?

[grey ghost]

7 hours ago, Mulder said:

Yeah I know why they're bad but it's still pretty astronomical how bad they're ending up being.

Meh, it should've made 650 m based on the usual SW sequel drop.

 

Not too far off.

 

People overpredicted like crazy.

[Brainbug]

 

Trashmerica.

[Jonwo]

34 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

The Post is shockingly down from yesterday at my theater, though I wager seniors don't want to deal with crowds. If it follows Darkest Hour, there are going to be monster weekdays.

Proud Mary is having a HUGE drop today.

The Commuter is roughly the same as yesterday.

Meanwhile, the first Paddington show only has 19 people, the second has 6, and the rest of the day is empty save for the Sensory Friendly show with 5. YIKES.

I reckon whatever The Post doesn’t do weekend wise it’ll more than make up for it on weekdays