Weekend Thread: Weekend estimates pg 38...BP 41.14....WIT 33.31

[seduh]

great number for BP, a $42 is coming.

[fabiopazzo2]

Very good for BP!! 

[Zakiyyah6]

Honestly Black Panther is so great and deserves every penny that it is making. Seeing a great film with a majority black cast do this well makes me a bit emotional. I always like when minority led films, especially black led, do well but I care more when they are actually good/great like Get Out and Black Panther. I WILL root on the bad and mediocre films but I find that so difficult to do. 

Edited March 10, 2018 by Zakiyyah6

[DeeCee]

Really bad for Disney not opening at #1. Oh, wait...

[George Parr]

45 minutes ago, vc2002 said:

It seems in today's movie business, 4 #1 wknds is the limit of what any movie can do. Avatar is the only post-2000 movie that did better than that, but Avatar is some kind of an outcast.

 

And out of total 32 movies in the history that had 5 and more #1 wknds, only 10 were from post-1990. It's clear to see the pattern here. Movies business has been getting more & more frontloaded.

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/bestranked.htm?page=WKNDSAT1&p=.htm

I think that also has quite a bit to do with the studios focusing only on a limited number of months to release their biggest movies. If you have a pretty big movie every three or four weeks, you are bound to only get a limited number of weeks at no.1 for every one of them. At the same time, a small movie can reach the same number of no.1 weekends when facing hardly any competition at all, see The Hitman's Bodyguard staying no.1 for three weekends in a row last year.

 

With big releases now being spread out a bit more again, it could be easier for a big movie to stay longer at no.1 if released in what is normally a pretty weak time of the year. At least until studios try to pounce on those months as well. In the end, no matter how big a movie is, if there is a decent competition nearby, the run at no.1 will be short-lived. The exact number of weeks depends more on the luck of having very little in the path, and not so much on the performance of the movie itself.

 

[sfran43]

1 hour ago, Julian1410 said:

http://variety.com/2018/film/news/wrinkle-in-time-black-panther-friday-box-office-1202722840/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

 

Variety is now reporting 13 million opening day for WIT

41 for the weekend

No they're not! That article is from yesterday afternoon. They haven't updated their Friday estimates yet.

[Fullbuster]

So BP reached $1B WW this friday?

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, Fullbuster said:

So BP reached $1B WW this friday?

already??? $1.5b in no time

[Fullbuster]

Just now, IronJimbo said:

already??? $1.5b in no time

 

It was at $980m this Thursday so that's likely. Or maybe it was a dream lol

[TwoMisfits]

So, WiT (if it follows Peter Rabbit)...

$1.2

$10.1

$19.8

$14.2

Total $45.3M

 

Is it likely it follows Peter Rabbit, knowing it has a built in Disney rush fan base and knowing it burned off some demand by having a Thursday?  Probably not, but this is probably the top we can expect for the weekend.

 

I am expecting a stronger Saturday than Deadline is off the opening Friday number, unless my area theaters are way off (and they can be)...today is already much more sold than yesterday across every show but the 7pms (which are even, since they were also well sold yesterday)...Sunday is also better sold than all the early shows, although not like today...

 

So, I think $35.3M is likely low, but we'll see how the weekend plays out (and if my area is an outlier, which it could be:)...

 

PS - BP has started to claw back some MT.com this morning, so we'll see if it can get back to the top by the end of today:)...

[Zakiyyah6]

1 hour ago, aabattery said:

It's these fields, man. Bomb city over here.

 

Whenever I see these fields I think a film is trying too hard to be epic. Maybe that's unfair but that's what I think.

[Rumpot]

This movie is skewing much younger than expected and Saturday will reflect that I think.  On Google trends WiT began to drop from its daily peak by 750pm EST/ 450pm PST compared to black Panther which didn't drop off its daily peak until after 1am EST.  

 

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now 1-d&geo=US&q=%2Fg%2F11c5h3v9j3,%2Fm%2F0126b7rc

 

With such a young/early skew I'm surprised WIT even got to 10m...but I think Saturday will be strong - per the deadline link the younger crowd gave significantly higher cinema scores to the movie anyway

[AniNate]

Nah, it's fair. Shooting in amber waves of grain is about as cheap as you can get in pandering to rural Americans.

[AniNate]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Also, Peter Rabbit looking to drop less than 25% in the wake of new competition is extremely impressive. Goes to show that A Wrinkle in Time didn't really connect as a must-see option for families despite the Disney brand.

 

It also has better reviews, which is kind of depressing

[YM!]

Looks like I’m seeing either Peter Rabbit or Winkle today, depending on what the kids want.

[Valonqar]

@aabattery The bomb fields is genius! 

[HouseOfTheSun]

1 hour ago, Rth Wakanda said:

BP WIT Fri neck & neck WIT come down closer to BP, probably no more than 100k or so between them 

Empire and Rth with the 1/2 punch 

[Zakiyyah6]

Assuming there isn't some Saturday anomaly, AWIT opening weekend will be fairly predictable. 

[rockNrollaDIM]

So BP will end up higher than WIT yes?

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, rockNrollaDIM said:

So BP will end up higher than WIT yes?

Unless A Wrinkle in Time has the multiplier of an animated film (it won't), that's pretty much a given.