Weekend Thread: Weekend estimates pg 38...BP 41.14....WIT 33.31

[sfran43]

 

[raniE]

1 hour ago, baumer said:

 

Nothing is perfect.  There's no way to figure anything out down to the last ticket.  It's just an approximation.

The Swedish film institute has numbers down to the last ticket up through 2016 for Swedish cinemas (from then on the cinema owners association decided to not give them access to the stats any longer, which is crap for me). So it can be done, but if the records don't exist, or are too decentralized, it won't happen.

[misterchief81]

If anyone has the actual attendance numbers domestically, it's Rentrak (comScore), but I'm not sure they report data from 100% of theatres.

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

This is the 1st weekend where BP actual is below the estimated number

Edited March 12, 2018 by sfran43

[a2k]

1 minute ago, sfran43 said:

 

guessing 2.75-2.85x and 91-94 dom. mixed wom but genre favors legs and is a non-sequel.

[a2k]

1 minute ago, sfran43 said:

 

DP trend (which BP is beating) takes it to ~688.

[a2k]

Most have come in. Waiting for Rabbit and Jumanji.

		Movie	Distributor	Gross	Change	Thtrs.	Per Thtr.	Total Gross	Week
1	(1)	Black Panther	Walt Disney	$40,817,579	-38%	3,942	$10,355	$561,697,180	4
2	new	A Wrinkle in Time	Walt Disney	$33,123,609		3,980	$8,323	$33,123,609	1
3	new	The Strangers: Prey at Night	Aviron Pictures	$10,402,271		2,464	$4,222	$10,402,271	1
4	(2)	Red Sparrow	20th Century Fox	$8,502,263	-50%	3,064	$2,775	$31,471,006	2
5	(4)	Game Night	Warner Bros.	$7,863,391	-24%	3,061	$2,569	$45,004,023	3
6	(5)	Peter Rabbit	Sony Pictures	$6,800,000	-32%	3,112	$2,185	$93,457,806	5
7	(3)	Death Wish	MGM	$6,581,130	-49%	2,882	$2,284	$23,856,431	2
8	(6)	Annihilation	Paramount Pictures	$3,302,319	-41%	1,709	$1,932	$26,246,833	3
9	new	The Hurricane Heist	Entertainment Studi…	$3,024,399		2,402	$1,259	$3,024,399	1
10	(7)	Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle	Sony Pictures	$2,750,000	-38%	2,157	$1,275	$397,258,021	12
11	new	Gringo	STX Entertainment	$2,722,420		2,404	$1,132	$2,722,420	1
12	(11)	The Shape of Water	Fox Searchlight	$2,347,664	+59%	1,552	$1,513	$60,940,802	15
13	(9)	The Greatest Showman	20th Century Fox	$1,914,157	-29%	952	$2,011	$167,614,558	12
14	(8)	Fifty Shades Freed	Universal	$1,368,020	-60%	1,357	$1,008	$98,382,615	5
15	new	Thoroughbreds	Focus Features	$1,224,430		549	$2,230	$1,224,430	1
16	(13)	Three Billboards Outside Eb…	Fox Searchlight	$694,643	-46%	552	$1,258	$53,339,205	18
17	(14)	The Post	20th Century Fox	$328,610	-69%	278	$1,182	$81,159,866	12
18	(16)	Darkest Hour	Focus Features	$265,545	-62%	245	$1,084	$56,088,295	16
19	(26)	Star Wars Ep. VIII: The Las…	Walt Disney	$265,513	+5%	246	$1,079	$619,483,244	13
20	(12)	The 15:17 to Paris	Warner Bros.	$264,490	-81%	420	$630	$35,772,875	5
21	(18)	I, Tonya	Neon	$263,031	-52%	243	$1,082	$29,509,368	14
22	(24)	Coco	Walt Disney	$258,951	-19%	194	$1,335	$208,845,284	16
23	(15)	Phantom Thread	Focus Features	$235,490	-69%	184	$1,280	$20,713,025	11
24	(29)	Ferdinand	20th Century Fox	$192,103	-9%	201	$956	$83,362,967	13
25	new	The Death of Stalin	IFC Films	$184,805		4	$46,201	$184,805	1
26	(21)	Maze Runner: The Death Cure	20th Century Fox	$181,633	-61%	214	$849	$57,448,833	7
27	(17)	Lady Bird	A24	$173,634	-69%	156	$1,113	$48,701,472	19

[ban1o]

so WOM really is still a thing. Like BP had an inflated OW due to holiday and it's going to end up with like a 3.4 multiplier on a huge opening weekend. 

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

These numbers are not right!😂😂😂

Edited March 12, 2018 by sfran43

[IronJimbo]

1 hour ago, Thomas Beck said:

What's the draw for A2 now that 3D has become common and mundane?

 

Does Cameron have some new breakthrough/gimmick lined up?

Hey Tommy, welcome! Just as sound and colour were are gimmicks, neither is 3D. When Hollywood uses 6 week post processed 3D for the sole purpose of grabbing, maybe then you could call it gimmick. Avatar though, that's a different story as it was filmed in native 3D for the purpose of delivering something truly beautiful and 2.78 billion dollars says it succeeded in doing so.Avatar had many more draws than 3D, it has a compelling love story and is character driven, the beautiful Pandora that took so many people's breath away (in 2D aswell!), action and science fiction.

Cameron doesn't do gimmicks, he's an artisan who works to improve the craft, however if I were to name the new breakthroughs for Avatar 2 this will be my predictions. Dynamic frame rate, Jim (James Cameron) calls frame rate a tool rather than a format, he will play action scenes in higher fps. Underwater motion capture, this has never been done before and in Cameron fashion he has created a new technology to bring his vision to life, except the best underwater visuals of all time (step aside Blue Planet 2 (they used Jim's cameras anyway)).

Edited March 12, 2018 by IronJimbo

[straggler]

So Red Sparrow came in 450K above estimates and had a sub-50 percent drop. Imagine what could have been if the critics would let Jlaw's films breathe. 

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, straggler said:

So Red Sparrow came in 450K above estimates and had a sub-50 percent drop. Imagine what could have been if the critics would let Jlaw's films breathe. 

 

JLaw the new Adam Sandler.  It's obvious the critics have it in for her.

 

 

 

 

[straggler]

8 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

JLaw the new Adam Sandler.  It's obvious the critics have it in for her.

 

 

 

 

To be honest, I think the critics are having issues with her stardom.They act like they own her and own her creative choices, and they bash every film she does lately for some offense or another. Even Sasha Stone, no Jlaw fan, noted this. They bashed Joy because she worked with a director three times (apparently there is a little known codicil in the Hollywood rule book and Dicaprio and Deniro are exempt), called Passengers a pro-rape film, and smeared RS as exploitative. It has been extra, and her stardom/status is the heart of it.  

Edited March 12, 2018 by straggler

[Plain Old Tele]

4 minutes ago, straggler said:

To be honest, I think the critics are having issues with her stardom.They act like they own her and own her creative choices, and they bash every film she does lately for some offense or another. Even Sasha Stone, no Jlaw fan, noted this. They bashed Joy because she worked with a director three times (apparently there is a little known codicil in the Hollywood rule book and Dicaprio and Deniro are exempt), called Passengers a pro-rape film, and smeared RS as exploitative. It has been extra, and her stardom/status is the heart of it.  

 

I don't really buy any of this.

[straggler]

1 minute ago, HerediTele said:

 

I don't really buy any of this.

You don't have to. The truth is out there. Hollywood is a neurotic place. What happened to Passengers was a hit job. And RS is not a 48 RT score film, whether it is masterpiece or not. 

[Plain Old Tele]

2 minutes ago, straggler said:

You don't have to. The truth is out there. Hollywood is a neurotic place. What happened to Passengers was a hit job. And RS is not a 48 RT score film, whether it is masterpiece or not. 

 

You're pitching your opinion (which is highly subjective, as is all of ours) as fact. PASSENGERS was god-awful. Not JLaw's fault, but it's a lousy movie in almost every regard. 48% RT just means half the critics liked it and half didn't.

 

No one went after JL for doing multiple movies with DOR -- some just pointed out that she was usually miscast in significantly older roles. Again, that's not her fault, that's DOR's. She did a fine job in those movies.

 

There's no witch-hunt here. No one is out to get her.

[CoolioD1]

i didn't see the other two movies so i can't speak to that but Joy was really a confused mess that felt like half a real movie. she's really good in it though, and i think the reviews reflected that.

[dxmatrixdt]

it appears that by tomorrow, Monday numbers should be finalized.