INFINITY WAR WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals ~ 257.698M OW (RECORD) | 106.334M Friday, 82.131M Saturday (RECORD), 69.231M Sunday (RECORD) | 640.9M Worldwide Opening (RECORD) | Read the Rules on the First Post | SALE NOW LIVE

[Webslinger]

I know we got kinda carried away with considering how high the previews could go, but $39 million is still an astonishing number. It's more than 40% ahead of Age of Ultron's preview figure. The weekend record may not happen, but it's still in for a gargantuan start regardless of which side of Force Awakens's $248 million start it falls on. 

[jaybox]

I made a bet with a friend that Infinity won't gross more than Star Wars Force Awakens domestically (i think worldwide it has a shot). Do ya'll think it was a safe/shoebox bet?

[TwoMisfits]

Lost the free month by 1 person:(...dang - I needed a free month of unlimited likes!

 

So, maybe my realistic weekend will be dead on (since I had $38.69M for previews - yes, I know they usually send a whole number, but figured Disney might want to mention those tenths of a million...and how can you not have a 69 somewhere:)...

[eXtacy]

3 minutes ago, Cynosure said:

It's not getting a Civil War multi. Multis decrease as previews increase.

I just worked out the multi of several recent Marvel films which prove this is not true.

 

Anyway it still only needs a multi of 6.3 which is far lower than any recent superhero has got. So its not out of reach yet to get that OW

[IronJimbo]

Just now, jaybox said:

I made a bet with a friend that Infinity won't gross more than Star Wars Force Awakens domestically (i think worldwide it has a shot). Do ya'll think it was a safe/shoebox bet?

God I need to find some delusional people to take money from

 

(yes you're 100% safe)

 

Edited April 27, 2018 by IronJimbo

[Lordmandeep]

Using the range the min opening weekend is around 215 million as the base right now but TFA looks safe for now. 

[DMan7]

Just now, jaybox said:

I made a bet with a friend that Infinity won't gross more than Star Wars Force Awakens domestically (i think worldwide it has a shot). Do ya'll think it was a safe/shoebox bet?

IW 300M OW x4 = 1.2 DOM

 

Definitely bad bet.

[a2k]

Thinking 228-231 (229.5)

 

39

62.5 (101.5 Friday)

69.5 (+11%/-31.5%)

58.5 (-16%)

= 229.5

[XO21]

Not yall being disappointed..wtf 

[Brainbug]

Just now, jaybox said:

I made a bet with a friend that Infinity won't gross more than Star Wars Force Awakens domestically (i think worldwide it has a shot). Do ya'll think it was a safe/shoebox bet?

 

Youve won that bet before the first showing of IW started.

 

Even with an (impossible) 300M OW, IW would have never passed that ridiculous 936M total of TFA.

[KJsooner]

AIW was probably the only possibility of dethroning TFA in the next long while. This just shows how huge TFA is/was.

[Rebeccas]

1 minute ago, titanic2187 said:

under TLJ is understandabe, but even under DH2? dude! DH2 made 43.5m in pure midnight show era!!!

sure the movie the weekend will pick up, 225m is now the range, below my 232.5 

But Marvel movies consistently have lower previews.

[Samarus]

2 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Don't let this be another ultron thread don't let this be another ultron thread  don't let this be another ultron thread don't let this be another ultron thread don't let this be another ultron thread

The first Megablockbuster thread I actively followed on this forum. It was a sad day.

[The Panda]

11 minutes ago, MattW said:

All marvel movies did 7x previews or better.

 

BvS did 5.99x previews

But that was a semi holiday Friday so we should expect better Thursday attendance relative to the weekend.

 

Suicide squad 6.5x but that was August

 

Even justice league did over 7x

 

If IW does 40+ it seems like 240+ is a strong bet

I think we should be careful about using other Marvel IM as direct comparisons.

 

Internal Multipliers are smaller based off of how large previews are.  40m is much higher than any other Marvel preview.  Maybe that indicates more interest, which to be fair I think OW Interest is higher than any marvel movie besides TA, but it’s still much easier to have a larger IM when previews are smaller.

 

Theres plenty of reason to believe (based off perceived finale factor, big emphasis on not being spoiled, being the most fan oriented Marvel movie) that IW is going to be much more internally frontloaded than previous Marvel films.

 

I think the large previews could translate to IW matching around the BvS IM (as BvS may have had Good Friday and Bad WoM, but it also had smaller previews in compensation)

 

In an extreme case it may even match a Star Wars or Harry Potter IM, as its previews are at a SW or HP level.  But I’m still going to think it does a bit better there.

 

Maybe I’ll be wrong and it’ll pull a typical Marvel IM, but I don’t think the expectation should be 7x Previews when the previews are this big.

[DAJK]

Honestly, if IW doesn't beat it, TLK is the next bet to beat the OW record.

 

Avengers 4 - $200M

Episode 9 - $230M

Lion King - $260M

 

 

Historically speaking, movies seem to cross each 50M barrier every 5 years or so. Spider man was first to cross 100M in 2002, Spider Man 3 was first to cross 150M in 2007, Avengers first to cross 200M in 2002... TFA pretty much hit 250 but not quite, so we're overdue  which is why I wouldn't be surprised if something crosses it this or next year.

 

Either way, 300M is safe until 2022 or beyond 

[fabiopazzo2]

Outstanding performance OS! 

NOW I’M CONFIDENT I

wait THR reports  

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, KJsooner said:

AIW was probably the only possibility of dethroning TFA in the next long while. This just shows how huge TFA is/was.

If the WOM for IW is as good as everyone's making out then IW2 has a shot. (we're talking opening weekend right)

[DAJK]

1 minute ago, Samarus said:

The first Megablockbuster thread I actively followed on this forum. It was a sad day.

JW second weekend thread was fun because that gave us the infamous #crumbling

[Rebeccas]

Just now, KJsooner said:

AIW was probably the only possibility of dethroning TFA in the next long while. This just shows how huge TFA is/was.

I think just proves you need to either do something brand new (Avengers 1) or be gone for a long time (JW, TFA).

[narniadis]

I can't really see the "day" (#6extrahours) going under 100m now... just an amazing number when you stop and consider it.