INFINITY WAR WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals ~ 257.698M OW (RECORD) | 106.334M Friday, 82.131M Saturday (RECORD), 69.231M Sunday (RECORD) | 640.9M Worldwide Opening (RECORD) | Read the Rules on the First Post | SALE NOW LIVE

[MattW]

 

1 minute ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

Deadline predicting 225-233.

 

http://deadline.com/2018/04/avengers-infinity-war-weekend-box-office-opening-records-1202378032/

 $95M-$102M today

 

So in the neighborhood of 56-63 for Friday.

[IronJimbo]

Going to watch this in 2 hours, sorry in advance to those who actually want to see it and don't get to yet.

[Biggestgeekever]

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/box-office-avengers-infinity-war-scores-superhero-best-39m-previews-1106358?utm_source=twitter&utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral

 

Quote

Disney and Marvel's Avengers: Infinity War earned $39 million in Thursday previews at the North American box office, putting the film on course for a domestic debut of $225 million-$235 million, the second-best showing of all time behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($248 million), according to early returns.

 

Friday's gross is expected to come in at $95 million-$105 million, including the preview earnings.

 

[IronJimbo]

Just now, Biggestgeekever said:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/box-office-avengers-infinity-war-scores-superhero-best-39m-previews-1106358?utm_source=twitter&utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral

 

 

These numbers keep dropping, a damn shame.

[Nova]

$95-$102M Friday? 

 

#CRUMBLING 

[Daxtreme]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

102

82

70

252M OW

 

The record is still in play but a bit shaky. Hopefully that estimate goes up a lot later

 

The biggest Saturday ever is $69M, I can't see AIW breaking that to a level that it reaches 82M

 

Same for Sunday, all-time record is $60.5M, 70 is too far-fetched I think

[Barnack]

3 hours ago, RandomCat said:

TLJ had like the worst presales on Amazon, it isn't making any records on home video.

 

Not sure I would call anything with pre-sales in the word a relevant record.

 

do you think it will beat Frozen bluray in the US sales record ? Or any relevant record ? Force Awaken didn't came close, not sure why TLJ would sales more than Awaken.

[WrathOfHan]

105 would be even better:

 

105M

84M

71M

260M OW

 

I wouldn't be surprised if they're being conservative after how big of a range TFA had at noon.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Not a cultural event 

[tawasal]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

105 would be even better:

 

105M

84M

71M

260M OW

 

I wouldn't be surprised if they're being conservative after how big of a range TFA had at noon.

What happened to 300m?

[redfirebird2008]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

102

82 (+30% from true Friday)

70 (-14.6% from Saturday)

252M OW

 

The record is still in play but a bit shaky. Hopefully that estimate goes up a lot later

 

Hollywood Reporter says potentially 105 Friday, so I'll go with that and use more conservative percentages on Saturday/Sunday

 

PRE - $39m

FRI - $66m

SAT - $77m (+17%)

SUN - $63m (-18%)

 

$245m for the weekend would be amazing.

[Dementeleus]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

105 would be even better:

 

105M

84M

71M

260M OW

 

I wouldn't be surprised if they're being conservative after how big of a range TFA had at noon.

 

Have you gone insane?

[a2k]

previews + true ow for 190+ openers :

TFA 57 + 191.0

JW 18.5 + 190.3

TA 18.7 + 188.7

TLJ 45.0 + 175.0*

BP 25.2 + 174.8

AOU 27.6 + 163.7*

 

*sequel

 

TFA's 191 is the highers but JW and TA are damn close to it.

Gives AIW 39+191 = 230

 

EDIT: Looks like I missed Deadline's Fri update while typing this precious little post. To hit 191 true ow, has to be close to the higher side of 95-105 full Friday range.

Edited April 27, 2018 by a2knet

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

4 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

 

The biggest Saturday ever is $69M, I can't see AIW breaking that to a level that it reaches 82M

 

Same for Sunday, all-time record is $60.5M, 70 is too far-fetched I think

Thank you, I feel like my thoughts on this have been lonely...there are ceilings on those days given our current market 

[IronJimbo]

Guys I've branched out from here and it's not going too well, they hit me with downvotes and called me a shill! How do I make reddit box office like me?

 

 

 

Edited April 27, 2018 by IronJimbo

[Dementeleus]

Just now, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Hollywood Reporter says potentially 105 Friday, so I'll go with that and use more conservative percentages on Saturday/Sunday

 

PRE - $39m

FRI - $66m

SAT - $77m (+17%)

SUN - $63m (-18%)

 

$245m for the weekend would be amazing.

 

Those aren't conservative at all for a movie with massive presales!  

[Nova]

Just now, Trolltastic Tele said:

 

Have you gone insane?

Have you gone insane? 

 

Its Han. Why ask such a question. 

[RandomCat]

4 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Not sure I would call anything with pre-sales in the word a relevant record.

 

do you think it will beat Frozen bluray in the US sales record ? Or any relevant record ? Force Awaken didn't came close, not sure why TLJ would sales more than Awaken.

I was making a joke. Because TLJ wasn't available to pre-order on Amazon.

[redfirebird2008]

Just now, Trolltastic Tele said:

 

Those aren't conservative at all for a movie with massive presales!  

 

Compared to his 30% Saturday increase and sub-15% Sunday drop, they are more conservative than what he posted. That's all I said in the post.

[Thrylos 7]

2 hours ago, ChipMunky said:

Preview to OD Multipliers:
Avengers - 4.322
Iron Man 3 - 4.414
Age of Ultron - 3.059
Civil War - 3.020
Black Panther - 3.014

Marvel films have become far more frontloaded than they used to be. I'd be SHOCKED if this got a 3.0 multi for the previews. $117 is the absolute max it will do today. Probably closer to $110 mil OD.

Now for the Preview to OW Multipliers:
Avengers - 11.09
Iron Man 3 - 11.163
Age of Ultron - 6.93
Civil War - 7.166
Black Panther - 8.016

If it matched AOU, that would put it at $270 mil OW. But it will probably go lower, I'd say closer to 6.5, but that would put it at $253.5 mil OW.

Gonna be close.

It won’t do anywhere near 117 million first day (and yeah I know this includes Thursday previews) . It will be lower than 110 million, 

possibly close to 100 . If it actually did 117 million , then it would demolish the ow record but it simply won’t happen.