Wed #s IW - 16.8m

[Taruseth]

18 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

If IW can stay within 125-130m or so of TFA through weekend 3, 800 can happen. TFA's post weekend 3 holds weren't all that extraordinary. Hoping it's only around 70-75m behind after this weekend. 

Is at 323M right now, so with 15M tomorrow and a 130M weekend (for a drop just a bit below 50%) (and would be behind by 72M so exactly in your range ) and weekdays of 49M (13 15 11 10) and a third weekend of 75M (a drop of 42%) it would be at 592M and TFA was at 742M so it would be 150m behind. And IW also needs to deal with Deadpool in it's fourth weekend and Solo in it's fifth, which might hurt those holds and mean they won't be better than TFA's one (though it's possible that they are far better)

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

Is at 323M right now, so with 15M tomorrow and a 130M weekend (for a drop just a bit below 50%) (and would be behind by 72M so exactly in your range ) and weekdays of 49M (13 15 11 10) and a third weekend of 75M (a drop of 42%) it would be at 592M and TFA was at 742M so it would be 150m behind. And IW also needs to deal with Deadpool in it's fourth weekend and Solo in it's fifth, which might hurt those holds and mean they won't be better than TFA's one (though it's possible that they are far better)

150m behind by weekend 3 would probably be a bit too much to hit 800. Probably needs to be no more than 140m behind to have a shot.

 

4th and 5th holds will likely be very similar to TFA's. TFA had the holiday honeymoon is over effect in its 4th and dropped big like IW likely will with DP2 and then dropped light in its 5th bc of a holiday weekend like IW likely will as well. 

Edited May 3, 2018 by MovieMan89

[Daxtreme]

30 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I still remember being so disappointed by what happened once Jan hit for TFA. Granted I knew of course big drops were coming, but the holiday performance was so otherworldly I thought WOM was great enough to carry it to 1b for sure once we were at that 3rd weekend gross. And considering I was one of the only ones to predict 1b DOM for it weeks before release, that would have been pretty awesome bragging rights. 

 

I still remember your post saying a 200M 2nd week-end for TFA would be bonkers.

 

good times!

[KP1025]

Theater changes this weekend. Quite a few films staying mostly flat.

 

> NEW RELEASES
6	-	Bad Samaritan	Electric Entertainment	2,007	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
10	-	Overboard (2018)	Pantelion	1,623	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
12	-	Tully (2018)	Focus Features	1,353	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
25	-	102 Not Out	Sony / Columbia	102	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
31	-	RBG	Magnolia	34	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
> EXPANDING
20	21	Peter Rabbit	Sony / Columbia	232	+3	+1.3%	-	-	-	-	13
21	27	Lean on Pete	A24	187	+20	+12.0%	-	-	-	-	5
22	28	Tomb Raider	Warner Bros.	187	+25	+15.4%	-	-	-	-	8
27	42	The Rider	Sony Classics	47	+10	+27.0%	-	-	-	-	4
30	43	Pandas	Warner Bros.	35	+2	+6.1%	-	-	-	-	5
> NO CHANGE
1	1	Avengers: Infinity War	Buena Vista	4,474	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
> DECLINING
2	2	A Quiet Place	Paramount	3,413	-152	-4.3%	-	-	-	-	5
3	4	I Feel Pretty	STX Entertainment	3,232	-208	-6.0%	-	-	-	-	3
4	3	Rampage (2018)	Warner Bros. (New Line)	3,151	-357	-10.2%	-	-	-	-	4
5	8	Super Troopers 2	Fox	2,118	-7	-0.3%	-	-	-	-	3
7	5	Truth or Dare	Universal	1,900	-520	-21.5%	-	-	-	-	4
8	7	Blockers	Universal	1,672	-652	-28.1%	-	-	-	-	5
9	9	Black Panther	Buena Vista	1,641	-9	-0.5%	-	-	-	-	12
11	6	Ready Player One	Warner Bros.	1,405	-960	-40.6%	-	-	-	-	6
13	10	Traffik	Lionsgate	747	-299	-28.6%	-	-	-	-	3
14	11	Isle Of Dogs	Fox Searchlight	698	-303	-30.3%	-	-	-	-	7
15	14	Sherlock Gnomes	Paramount	636	-95	-13.0%	-	-	-	-	7
16	15	Chappaquiddick	Entertainment Studios	516	-188	-26.7%	-	-	-	-	5
17	16	Tyler Perry's Acrimony	Lionsgate	398	-142	-26.3%	-	-	-	-	6
18	17	The Miracle Season	Mirror/LD	330	-100	-23.3%	-	-	-	-	5
19	18	A Wrinkle in Time	Buena Vista	294	-77	-20.8%	-	-	-	-	9
23	24	Game Night	Warner Bros. (New Line)	183	-25	-12.0%	-	-	-	-	11
24	22	Pacific Rim Uprising	Universal	161	-63	-28.1%	-	-	-	-	7
26	34	The Leisure Seeker	Sony Classics	76	-41	-35.0%	-	-	-	-	18
28	37	Final Portrait	Sony Classics	40	-29	-42.0%	-	-	-	-	7
29	39	Strangers: Prey at Night	Aviron	40	-22	-35.5%	-	-	-	-	9
32	40	Death Wish (2018)	MGM	29	-13	-31.0%	-	-	-	-	10
33	44	Foxtrot	Sony Classics	22	-10	-31.3%	-	-	-	-	10

 

 

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, Daxtreme said:

 

I still remember your post saying a 200M 2nd week-end for TFA would be bonkers.

 

good times!

Haha, was I really on board with a 200m second weekend? Wow, I must have been drunk on all kinds of TFA hype. 

[JB33]

32 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Dem holiday / Mid-summer weekdays!

Exactly! 

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, KP1025 said:

Theater changes this weekend. Quite a few films staying mostly flat.

 

> NEW RELEASES
6	-	Bad Samaritan	Electric Entertainment	2,007	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
10	-	Overboard (2018)	Pantelion	1,623	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
12	-	Tully (2018)	Focus Features	1,353	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
25	-	102 Not Out	Sony / Columbia	102	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
31	-	RBG	Magnolia	34	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
> EXPANDING
20	21	Peter Rabbit	Sony / Columbia	232	+3	+1.3%	-	-	-	-	13
21	27	Lean on Pete	A24	187	+20	+12.0%	-	-	-	-	5
22	28	Tomb Raider	Warner Bros.	187	+25	+15.4%	-	-	-	-	8
27	42	The Rider	Sony Classics	47	+10	+27.0%	-	-	-	-	4
30	43	Pandas	Warner Bros.	35	+2	+6.1%	-	-	-	-	5
> NO CHANGE
1	1	Avengers: Infinity War	Buena Vista	4,474	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
> DECLINING
2	2	A Quiet Place	Paramount	3,413	-152	-4.3%	-	-	-	-	5
3	4	I Feel Pretty	STX Entertainment	3,232	-208	-6.0%	-	-	-	-	3
4	3	Rampage (2018)	Warner Bros. (New Line)	3,151	-357	-10.2%	-	-	-	-	4
5	8	Super Troopers 2	Fox	2,118	-7	-0.3%	-	-	-	-	3
7	5	Truth or Dare	Universal	1,900	-520	-21.5%	-	-	-	-	4
8	7	Blockers	Universal	1,672	-652	-28.1%	-	-	-	-	5
9	9	Black Panther	Buena Vista	1,641	-9	-0.5%	-	-	-	-	12
11	6	Ready Player One	Warner Bros.	1,405	-960	-40.6%	-	-	-	-	6
13	10	Traffik	Lionsgate	747	-299	-28.6%	-	-	-	-	3
14	11	Isle Of Dogs	Fox Searchlight	698	-303	-30.3%	-	-	-	-	7
15	14	Sherlock Gnomes	Paramount	636	-95	-13.0%	-	-	-	-	7
16	15	Chappaquiddick	Entertainment Studios	516	-188	-26.7%	-	-	-	-	5
17	16	Tyler Perry's Acrimony	Lionsgate	398	-142	-26.3%	-	-	-	-	6
18	17	The Miracle Season	Mirror/LD	330	-100	-23.3%	-	-	-	-	5
19	18	A Wrinkle in Time	Buena Vista	294	-77	-20.8%	-	-	-	-	9
23	24	Game Night	Warner Bros. (New Line)	183	-25	-12.0%	-	-	-	-	11
24	22	Pacific Rim Uprising	Universal	161	-63	-28.1%	-	-	-	-	7
26	34	The Leisure Seeker	Sony Classics	76	-41	-35.0%	-	-	-	-	18
28	37	Final Portrait	Sony Classics	40	-29	-42.0%	-	-	-	-	7
29	39	Strangers: Prey at Night	Aviron	40	-22	-35.5%	-	-	-	-	9
32	40	Death Wish (2018)	MGM	29	-13	-31.0%	-	-	-	-	10
33	44	Foxtrot	Sony Classics	22	-10	-31.3%	-	-	-	-	10

 

 

Dat BP hold. TFA was down to 1k by this point. 

[Legion Again]

-10% theaters for Rampage and -0% for Panther?     

 

Top 5 should be IW, Overboard, AQP, IFP, but then an interesting fight between Rampage, Panther, and Tully to round out the top 5.

Edited May 3, 2018 by Thanos Legion

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

-10 theaters for Rampage and -0% for Panther?     

 

Top 5 should be IW, Overboard, AQP, IFP, but then an interesting fight between Rampage, Panther, and Tully to round out the top 5.

Hopefully BP gets it. Would give it second most weekends in the top 5 of any 21st century film.

Edited May 3, 2018 by MovieMan89

[narniadis]

We should be in for some good holds across the board this weekend. The films still playing need to make all they can this and next weekend because starting with Deadpool - all the films pre-IW are TOAST as far as their screen / theater counts are concerned.

[aabattery]

1 hour ago, sfran43 said:

It went up with actuals...

 

 

 

[Daxtreme]

This 2nd week-end is gonna be...

 

 

Worthy of Zod's snapped neck!

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, Daxtreme said:

This 2nd week-end is gonna be...

 

 

Worthy of Zod's snapped neck!

Over Suicide Squad's OW (133M) is the target.

 

[Mango]

$15.6M Thurs

$33M Fri

$48M Sat

$34M Sun

 

$115M second weekend.

 

-55% drop for the weekend.

[JB33]

1 minute ago, Mango said:

$15.6M Thurs

$33M Fri

$48M Sat

$34M Sun

 

$115M second weekend.

 

-55% drop for the weekend.

That's a very light Saturday jump. I'd be surprised at that.

[Daxtreme]

Stumbled on an old Ray Subers article on The Avengers that had him peg the OW at $172.5M

 

I miss Ray Subers

 

Interestingly enough, you could replace 'The Avengers' with 'Avengers: Infinity War' in this article and it would still be fairly accurate.

 

... even down to the under-prediction 

[Chewy]

46 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Btw, I'm gone for a week and we have this baby

 

Context of proper usage anyone? Much obliged. 

 

use this one

 

[IronJimbo]

59 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

Avatar can’t beat Gone with the Wind, and Gone with the Wind had 0% Asia

Huh, it already beat it though.

 

I mean you can adjust a 70 year old film for inflation which is from a time without home cinema which has spent over 12x as long in cinema and re-released over 8x but what would be the point of that?

[KeepItU25071906]

Tomorrow or on Saturday (in the last resort) Disney should reach 3 billion worldwide. 

[aabattery]

1 hour ago, That One Guy said:

 

The trailer for this is soooo bad and I wanna watch it.  When is this getting released in America?

 

 

I would post this in the CCT but i'm threadbanned sorry guys

 

I imagine the powers that be are actively trying to prevent this getting out of the country.