MovieMan89 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 1 minute ago, John Marston said: Dud you deservedly gloat in that club hat club you made about BP and IW? Lol, no. I'll wait for this weekend before definitively calling that a win. It's not like it would be impossible for it to miss TA yet (even though I'd be shocked with how it's performing so far), and I'd look pretty dumb for declaring victory and then failing lol. And the shoutouts will go to the few that had the guts to join me back in January and early Feb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bladels Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said: Even I didn't expect the non-China OS performance to be like this. It's insane. If China blows up and does something crazy like 500, it might beat AoU WW on just OS. It will beat TA WW with just OS if China hits $500M 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Girl Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 what are the chances that it passes $480M? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said: Lol, no. I'll wait for this weekend before definitively calling that a win. It's not like it would be impossible for it to miss TA yet (even though I'd be shocked with how it's performing so far), and I'd look pretty dumb for declaring victory and then failing lol. And the shoutouts will go to the few that had the guts to join me back in January and early Feb. Is there such thing as a “ban after effect”? Cause who are you and what have you done to our brazen, full of confidence MovieMan89? 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, That One Guy said: what are the chances that it passes $480M? Considering it’s not an event and has no hype, will likely finish just short of 480M (this Sunday). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Girl Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 Just now, Thanos Legion said: Considering it’s not an event and has no hype, will likely finish just short of 480M (this Sunday). thank you for your insight, my $480M prediction in the summer game lookin' good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, Chewy said: I take full credit for this! Yeah, let's go with that! Damn you Chewy and your last minute "I read the spoilers and now I'm dropping my game prediction by 100m!" 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said: Even I didn't expect the non-China OS performance to be like this. It's insane. If China blows up and does something crazy like 500, it might beat AoU WW on just OS. Tbh OS-China is looking at 1B + so it 'only' needs 400m from china to pass it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephemeris Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 1 hour ago, MCKillswitch123 said: Damn near identical Wednesday drop to Black Panther (a little smaller). Same Thursday drop gets it to 16.2M today; same drop as Avengers 1 gets it to 15.2M. Middle range puts it at 15.7. So that's the range to make, folks. Playing the BOT bipolarity game, below 15.2 and it's a FLOP Above 16.2 and IT'S GOING OVER AVATAR Interestingly, using the exact same day-to-day drops as BP or TA after their first Wednesdays gives us 2 nearly identical weekend numbers, even though they're 2 very different ways of getting there: BP: $126.95M(-50.7%) TA: $126.42M(-50.9%) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 8 hours ago, fmpro said: 52-53% drop on 2nd weekend and 2,8-2,9 OW multiplier Take that to the Mousebank Disney Sounds great to me! On the way to $750m!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belle Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 Guessing Thursday will drop around 7%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfb Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 Well, I said this yesterday in OS thread, so 32.2m$ is actually a really solid hold. But definitely expect it to drop tomorrow even with Russia OD. It's somewhat following A1's increase and drop patterns. But going over 31m and then 31.3m is a good, early and a small sign for OS legs. 17 hours ago, gfb said: A1 has the same dates in same days so it is the best comp imo. Some numbers based off that: Avengers AIW 33.1m$ Monday 55.2m$ Monday / %166 of A1 42.3m$ Tuesday (+%27.7) 64.5m$ Tuesday (+%16.8) / %152 of A1 20.6m$ Wednesday (-%51.3) ? Wednesday As @Quigley noted, A1's increase was %17.2 when erasing new releases' OD grosses. However, A1 had Egypt and Serbia opening on Wednesday as well as all those new releases' 2nd day doing probably much better than they would in their 6/7/8th days so I won't take that into account for Wednesday. Because of this, if AIW follows Tuesday's path, and if Wednesday number ends up being %152 of A1, it will be: 31.3m$. If AIW follows A1's Mon > Wed drop, AIW's Wed will be 34.3m$. So my range would be 30-35m$ with anything above as excellent and anything below as disappointing Wed numbers. I would lean closer to 31.3m$ because of A1 having ODs in Egypt and Serbia as well as 2nd day effects in Labour Day releases. If Egypt & Serbia caused a softer drop than I imagined, then below 31.3m is possible. 30m-31.3m still would be okay to good because of this. And above 31.3m$ would mean just beating those advantages for A1 and a solid Wed number for AIW. 34.3m$ would mean completely disregarding those advantages of A1 for a softer drop and a great number. Anything above 35m would simply be excellent imo. I'd go with 31m$ though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 15 minutes ago, Sam said: Is there such thing as a “ban after effect”? Cause who are you and what have you done to our brazen, full of confidence MovieMan89? IW is beating TFA's second weekend. Don't give me that "facts and patterns and box office history" nonsense, it's happening. The end. Better? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narniadis Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 @MovieMan89 I would love to see the OS total be more than AOU / MTA world wide totals - but not sure I want to pull that trigger myself yet. I just can't believe that we are discussing the possibility it's like 1b OS total would have been more than fine for IW (and an increase over both AOU/MTA) but dad-gum the domestic market exploding as well as the world have put this in a different category all together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daxtreme Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 Back then I thought 1.5b WW would be terrific for this and a big show of sustainability and stability for the MCU franchise. This is a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 27 minutes ago, That One Guy said: Btw, your gloating on Friday about the Thursday/Friday proper #'s without realizing what event MCU films do on Saturdays was priceless. Thank you for cheering me up amid the ban hammer blues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VGPOP Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 Does Infinity have enough muscles to gross $149,202,861 this second weekend? (-42.1% drop?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAJK Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 Marvel's just been fucking with us the whole time, turns out the movie's only at 400WW right now, and it actually opened to JL levels domestically. "you know what would be a really kick-ass joke would be to fuck it go BOT members!" - Kevin Feige Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rebeccas Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, VGPOP said: Does Infinity have enough muscles to gross $149,202,861 this second weekend? (-42.1% drop?) No, but I guess never say never. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, narniadis said: @MovieMan89 I would love to see the OS total be more than AOU / MTA world wide totals - but not sure I want to pull that trigger myself yet. I just can't believe that we are discussing the possibility it's like 1b OS total would have been more than fine for IW (and an increase over both AOU/MTA) but dad-gum the domestic market exploding as well as the world have put this in a different category all together. You know what this means right? Y'all gonna have to suffer through my TA4 300m+ OW and over TFA DOM predictions for a whole year. And who knows, maybe I'll even start making a case for >Avatar WW. @IronJimbo 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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