Weekend Thread | Avengers 2nd Weekend - 114.774 only a 21.5% drop on Sunday

[edmkh]

7 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Unless they do something to bring Luke back or get some major marketing gimmick to the film, the next SW won't do anywhere near TFA.  I think it can beat TLJ but not close to TFA.

I am thinking they will (He is the only one of the trio left sadly) plus dart vader plus Yoda, Plus another big bad, plus a shocking revelation about rey or Kylo, plus maybe they convince Ford back for a flashback now that my beloved Fisher is so sadly dead.

[NoLegMan]

The only way IW Makes it to 700 million domestic is if DP 2 isn't as good as people think it will be, or it just straight up sucks.

[Thrylos 7]

7 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

There's nothing wrong with someone not wanting a film to pass another film.  We do it with sports all the time too.  We don't want (insert team here) to win another championship because that would give them more than (insert team here).  I'd suggest to lay off this narrative that Jimbo and Grace are the same people.  They aren't.  Period.  End of story.

Honestly mentioning avatar and titanic 1 billion times in every thread is boring. I wish Cameron actually made films and hadn’t basically abandoned cinema after titanic, with one movie in the last one million years, so at least these guys could discuss about more than freakin titanic with a bit of avatar . Why not bring gone with the wind 10000000 times in every thread while we are at it.

[Boxofficerules]

3 hours ago, That One Guy said:

lol Truth or Dare is at a 2.04x and HDD ended with a 2.13x.  @Mockingjay Raphael Thoughts?

I don’t get this?

[baumer]

3 hours ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

7/8M for me

 

Why?  

 

Are you thinking the Sunday number comes in lower?

[MovieMan89]

8 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

Honestly mentioning avatar and titanic 1 billion times in every thread is boring. I wish Cameron actually made films and hadn’t basically abandoned cinema after titanic, with one movie in the last one million years, so at least these guys could discuss about more than freakin titanic with a bit of avatar . Why not bring gone with the wind 10000000 times in every thread while we are at it.

I honestly hope for Jimbo's sake that A2 does beat the first WW. Imagine spending 11 years talking nonstop about how it's gonna do it and then it misses. That would be too sad to even be funny. 

[fabiopazzo2]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

 

Why?  

 

Are you thinking the Sunday number comes in lower?

The school are in session? 

[GraceRandolph]

1 hour ago, meriodejaneiro said:

Don't try to come to reason with that profile ... it's a "one person-two profiles" case.

 

The original profile is IronJimbo who gets worried whenever a real threat to Cameron's Avatar comes out and floods the threads with tears and whines and bizarre arguments.

 

When that threat is gone and the threaten one is the other Cameron big movie, Titanic, then uses the second profile, GraceRandolph, to try to discredit the menace with posts like the ones we are seeing today. 

 

I just hope IW makes it past Titanic ww, so the existence of GraceRandolph in these forums will be no longer required. #markmywords

If this statement is true infinity war will gross 2 billion. 

[LonePirate]

17 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

Tully is so fucking good.  Before you see IW a second time please see Tully because it deserves to make a lot more money, thanks

Agreed. Tully is a much better film than IW and it has a much more emotionally powerful ending.

[SLAM!]

Here's what I think about this weekend.

 

Avengers: Infinity War is doing phenomenally, to no one's surprise. Once again, we have a profitable blockbuster that isn't worth repeating things that have already been expressed in words about such a record-breaking. Though I am overjoyed for all of the excellent actors whose careers are getting sustained because of this film.

 

Overboard did more than I expected in a fairly small wide release. Eugenio Derbez clearly has a fanbase that is willing to support him.

 

It's a pleasure to see A Quiet Place sustaining itself in its fifth week. Whoever planned its release schedule deserves a raise, because this excellent film basically has the horror market all to itself until Hereditary. I can't wait to keep examining how well it continues to hold.

 

I Feel Pretty is doing... okay, for what it is. Being able to hold its place at the top in the wake of two new comedies is a positive sign for engagement, and I'm sure it'll have a small Mother's Day boost next week -- I'm sure that not all of the people seeing movies on Mother's Day want to see Life of the Party.

 

For Rampage, this dry period until Deadpool 2 and Solo has proven to be a fairly beneficial for the film's longevity. $100M seems to still be on the table, especially if it's still in the top five during fourth week.

 

I feel like Focus Features made the right choice releasing Tully semi-wide instead of vying in the platform market. It's a shame that it's not doing as well as it could be but the smaller amount of theaters is a relief. And the film still has Mother's Day. I still think it's a shame that this debuted softly. Reitman just can't catch a break, can he?

 

Meanwhile, Black Panther is still holding incredibly well after its rereleasing into more theaters. This is its 12th weekend... crazy!

 

And I really don't understand how Truth or Dare hasn't fallen out of the top ten yet. Again, it was incredibly cheap to make, so everything it makes now is icing on the cake.

 

Super Troopers 2 is still a success stort, and it can undoubtedly still obtain the small amount needed to have its budget doubled in America alone. I'm really happy for them and their fans!

 

Bad Samaritan is lucky to be in the top ten. Despite that, its debut is one of the worst wide openings in history. This is what happens when nobody knows that a film is even out. It's a shame because it's not like this film was truly awful or anything. It's exciting that Electric Entertainment is giving wide release a shot (they also distributed a similarly under-advertised film, LBJ (an Oscar-bait biopic starring Woody Harrelson), in over 600 theaters last year), but they still have some learning to do in the advertising department if they don't want to go bankrupt before they can make any sort of palpable impact.

 

It'd be a blessing if Isle of Dogs was able to at least surpass Rushmore's adjusted gross so it could assuredly become on of Anderson's highest grossers. Though the most necessary thing, grossing over Fantastic Mr. Fox so that another stop-motion can be made, has already been achieved - any more success is icing on the cake. I'm sure the film will continue to hold well in the weeks to come.

 

It seems like the documentary RBG has debuted fantastically in its amount of theaters (34). It's already announced to be coming to my town's historical theater where they play one art film per week. This is definitely a win for Magnolia pictures.

 

I'm still holding out hope that A Wrinkle in Time can somehow still leg its way to $100M, but it's like over $4M away and theaters have dwindled. Talk about getting tackled just before the touchdown.

 

I have a prediction. I'm willing to bet that the distributor Bleecker Street will try to give Disobedience more theaters. That's a fairly strong hold it just had, Bleecker Street is craxy enough to try it, they played the trailer in front of Unsane and Beirut, and for the next few weeks, the wide release slate is sort of dry. The film could definitely benefit from a bold release in more theaters, even if it's a release that isn't quite wide. In fact, if they released Captain Fantastic in a few more theaters than expected, they might give this one a try. So what I'm saying is, be prepared to come across Disobedience in the list of films playing in your town theaters in about two to four weeks.

 

Well, I think this would've been a weaker weekend than most if it weren't for Avengers. Most older releases are slowly running out of steam and the most of the newer ones didn't make much of an impact -- and in my opinion, their misfortune is undeserved and disappointing.

[WrathOfHan]

Overboard:

Remainder of this week: 3.6M (18.4M Total)

May 11: 7.6M (1.9M weekdays, 27.9M Total)

May 18: 3.1M (800k weekdays, 31.8M Total)

May 25: 1.4M (800k weekdays, 34M Total)

Jun 1: 600k (200k weekdays, 34.8M Total)

Final Total: 36M (2.43x)

 

Unless it behaves exactly like Latin Lover next weekend, it shouldn't have much trouble outgrossing it.

 

Tully:

Remainder of this week: 1.1M (4.3M Total)

May 11: 2.4M (600k weekdays, 7.3M Total)

May 18: 800k (300k weekdays, 8.4M Total)

Final Total: 10M (3.13x)

 

Well, at least it'll have good legs.

 

Bad Samaritan:

Remainder of this week: 500k (2.3M Total)

May 11: 900k (200k weekdays, 3.4M Total)

Final Total: 4M (2.22x)

 

lol

[Brainbug]

9 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I honestly hope for Jimbo's sake that A2 does beat the first WW. Imagine spending 11 years talking nonstop about how it's gonna do it and then it misses. That would be too sad to even be funny. 

 

I dont know id laugh anyway

[aabattery]

14 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I honestly hope for Jimbo's sake that A2 does beat the first WW. Imagine spending 11 years talking nonstop about how it's gonna do it and then it misses. That would be too sad to even be funny. 

 

When A2 drops from A1 in every market except China 

[baumer]

3 hours ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

The school are in session? 

 

But a 78% drop?

[fabiopazzo2]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

 

But a 78% drop?

The school are in session? 

Really I don’t know ... 

[The Mad Titan]

9 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

But a 78% drop?

BP, CW and AOU all dropped 76-77% so it's definitely possible. Hoping for something more along the lines of 70% though. 

[MCKillswitch123]

Wait wait wait...... @CJohn is it true that Avengers won the April 19-25 box office week here in Portugal IN A SINGLE DAY?

[Joyous Legion]

9 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Wait wait wait...... @CJohn is it true that Avengers won the April 19-25 box office week here in Portugal IN A SINGLE DAY?

Not so surprising, is it? IW’s Thursday preview gross domestically would win the 20th-26th box office week. I imagine this is true in many markets.

[Daxtreme]

edit: oops accidentally hit reply.

 

hmm, I have to find something to say...

 

hope actuals won't go down 

Edited May 6, 2018 by Daxtreme

[Jonwo]

21 hours ago, A2k Raptor said:

RPO's OS is 422 and more than half of that is China (212 + 210). It's looking to cross $220 in China eventually so China should stay >50% of OS. Could end up with:

222 China

137 Dom

216 OS-China

= 575

 

222*0.25 + 137*0.55 + 216*0.33 = 202.1

 

Even if the prod budget were 200 instead of 175, the global theatrical revenue matching the prod budget means the movie is well safe with non-theatrical taking care of marketing and release costs.

If Kong Skull Island was considered a success and cost $10m more than RPO, then RPO should be considered a success. 

 

I doubt it cost $200m, Spielberg is known to keep his budgets in check. It's had a great run and TBH it's likely matched or exceeded WB's expectations. 

 

It's interesting that while A Quiet Place has done great business in North America, the OS business has been decent at best. I'm guessing horror is a hard nut to crack internationally unless it's something like IT.

Edited May 6, 2018 by Jonwo