AVENGERS ENDGAME | 1939.4 M overseas ● 2797.8 M worldwide

[Permanent Magnet]

4 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

China if it does amazing might hit 1 billion and HUGE doubt that it will. Legs are super short and I doubt it beats wolf warrior 2.

 

Personally I think it will do less in dom, insanely less in Latin America, about 3x in China (750m) . I loved Avatar and still think it hits 2B but again according to all Avatar fans 2.75B or less is underperforming. Hence the huge chance of underperforming.

 

1.5b in China is as likely as 300m

i am sure Avatar 2 will make tons of money and it has high chance to make 2B+( mainly due to china), and i wish it beat Avatar record as i really liked the first , but to say that the floor is Avatar 2.78B is stupid, there are no metrics, trailers or even huge buzz to prove that, that is like me saying EG will make 2.7B back in 2014 when phase 3 was announced, cause i am sure people would have laughed at me then and they will have the right to do so.

[cdsacken]

China is also bigger because of local. Films have a month to run and screen count plummets hard after the 2 weeks. 

 

The fact that avatar fans think 750m (world record for Hollywood film and way above EG) is somehow easy is hard to believe. 750m is not a bad outcome. Europe will still carry of course. 

 

Of course if Avatar 2 hits 1B in China it's likely to do amazing in DOM and hit 3b. We shall see.

Edited June 30, 2019 by cdsacken

[cdsacken]

3 minutes ago, Permanent Magnet said:

i am sure Avatar 2 will make tons of money and it has high chance to make 2B+( mainly due to china), and i wish it beat Avatar record as i really liked the first , but to say that the floor is Avatar 2.78B is stupid, there are no metrics, trailers or even huge buzz to prove that, that is like me saying EG will make 2.7B back in 2014 when phase 3 was announced, cause i am sure people would have laughed at me then and they will have the right to do so.

Floor is 1.5b imo. Absolute ceiling if it everything is perfect with the current currency rates is 3.5. That would be legendary and amazing to see.

[Pure Spirit]

15 minutes ago, Permanent Magnet said:

 

will disney and JC release that 4K re-render only when EG beat Avatar???

 i mean i want that 4k version too, but it doesn't require EG to defeat Avatar in order to happen.

The 4k re-release will happen either way, but EG beating Avatar puts pressure on Jimmy to make it happen sooner instead of later. It's not guarantee or anything, I don't know the internals of Disney, but that's common sense. 

[Doctor Stark]

3 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

China is also bigger because of local. Films have a month to run and screen count plummets hard after the 2 weeks. 

 

The fact that avatar fans think 750m (world record for Hollywood film and way above EG) is somehow easy is hard to believe. 750m is not a bad outcome. Europe will still carry of course. 

 

Of course if Avatar 2 hits 1B in China it's likely to do amazing in DOM and hit 3b. We shall see.

It’s so easy to throw out big numbers for a worldwide total. It’s when you break it down that it gets insane. $4 billion doesn’t sound impossible until you realize $1.1 billion or greater are required in China and the domestic market to even have a chance.

[Cooper Legion]

Just think, if Endgame had done 3% higher this thread would be 100 pages shorter.

[Ozymandias]

[cdsacken]

44 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Just think, if Endgame had done 3% higher this thread would be 100 pages shorter.

Like if literally one damn week early on wasn't a big drop this would be over.

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, Thanos Legion said:

Just think, if Endgame had done 3% higher this thread would be 100 pages shorter.

 

On 3/24/2019 at 11:54 PM, Thanos Legion said:

By the way, now that we’re only a month away, here’s a check in on ER’s in IW’s 10 biggest markets (+Japan and Indonesia):  

China — ER has fallen from 6.4 to 6.7, IW’s 376 would be worth 359 today  (-17M)

UK — ER has fallen from ~.72 to .76, IW’s 96.6 would be about 91.5 today (-5M)

SK — ER from around 1070 to 1130, IW’s 93.1 would be about 88.1 today (-5M)  

Brazil — from ~3.5 to 3.9, IW’s 66.6 would be about 59.6 (-7M)

Mexico — ~19 to 19, 60M->60M (-0)

France, Germany — both on the euro, ~.83 to .88, combined gross of 93 would today be ~88 (-5M)  

AUS — ~1.33->1.41, ~47->44 (-3M)  

India — ~67 to 69, 44-> 43 (-1M)  

Russia — ~62 to 65, 35-> 32 (-3M)

Japan — ~110 to 110, -0M

Indonesia — ~13900 to 14200, 25M->24.5M (-.5M)   

 

Combined, these 12 territories were worth about 970 for IW (71% of its OS gross) and today the same local grosses would be about 923M, roughly -5%.       

 

Things could always change in the next 4 weeks (in particular Brazil’s ER is pretty volatile for political reasons, and the U.K. could have a big political event in the next 4 weeks) but at these rates an increase of 20% lc in every market would only be +14% or so in USD.

To think  there was the prevalent thought the drop in exchange rates would be why it didn't match AIW and now that +5 or so percent is the reason it's not at $2.9B already. 😛

[Pure Spirit]

Nice to see MCU fans finally coming around.

 

If only BoT was around when Titanic was doing its insane run. I hope I see another phenomenon like that in my lifetime.

[Doctor Stark]

15 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

To think  there was the prevalent thought the drop in exchange rates would be why it didn't match AIW and now that +5 or so percent is the reason it's not at $2.9B already. 😛

This is why people who say exchange rates don’t matter and Avatar is the bigger movie because it came out ten years ago are wrong. Some of the worst exchange rates ever versus some of the best ever.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

14 minutes ago, Pure Spirit said:

I hope I see another phenomenon like that in my lifetime.

 

Yes, seeing a 500 million admission film in the next decade would be a cool thing to witness. 

[Doctor Stark]

42 minutes ago, Pure Spirit said:

Nice to see MCU fans finally coming around.

 

If only BoT was around when Titanic was doing its insane run. I hope I see another phenomenon like that in my lifetime.

I’d love to see a run like that too.

[titanic2187]

Honestly, I don't buy the idea of re-releasing Avatar just to reclaim all time grosser title back from EG.

Once EG hit 2.788b and above, that is it, 9years old record of Avatar is down, whatever extra gross after EG beating it is useless. 

 

unless avatar managed to re-release before EG claim the spot. 

[Doctor Stark]

41 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Honestly, I don't buy the idea of re-releasing Avatar just to reclaim all time grosser title back from EG.

Once EG hit 2.788b and above, that is it, 9years old record of Avatar is down, whatever extra gross after EG beating it is useless. 

 

unless avatar managed to re-release before EG claim the spot. 

I think I get what you are saying. Basically that even if Avatar takes it back, it will have lost the luster of the number one spot. Endgame would now be the movie people think of as number one. There would not be enough time to really make people realize or care that Avatar was number one again, so it may not be worth it in the first place. Interesting idea.

[Nero]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

Honestly, I don't buy the idea of re-releasing Avatar just to reclaim all time grosser title back from EG.

Once EG hit 2.788b and above, that is it, 9years old record of Avatar is down, whatever extra gross after EG beating it is useless. 

 

unless avatar managed to re-release before EG claim the spot. 

This and also I don't think Disney will let it re release Avatar. Disney doesn't re release their most successful movies and also the only movies they re released was when 3D fad was going on. Just look at Incredible 2 or Toy Story 4 it's been more than 10 years for sequels to come out and there was no re release for Incredible or Toy Story 3. Disney is not known for re releases. If it was Fox they would have definitely done it. 

[Hemo memo]

5 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

Honestly, I don't buy the idea of re-releasing Avatar just to reclaim all time grosser title back from EG.

Once EG hit 2.788b and above, that is it, 9years old record of Avatar is down, whatever extra gross after EG beating it is useless. 

 

unless avatar managed to re-release before EG claim the spot. 

Let us worry about EG getting the record first.

[setna]

7 hours ago, Pure Spirit said:

Nice to see MCU fans finally coming around.

 

If only BoT was around when Titanic was doing its insane run. I hope I see another phenomenon like that in my lifetime.

 

I see very difficult to happen something like that again, my friend.

 

A movie that stays 15 weeks number 1, that it´s highest domestic day it´s number 58, a movie that still is number one in admissions in some countries in the world after 21 years, a movie that brought to theatres people from all ages, and finally way to go to movies changed a lot in the last years, with digital platforms, home cinema systems, new ways of entertaining…. i don´t think we Will see something like Titanic ever again, of course i really love to see an ultraleggy hit again, but….i almost see it imposible....

[efialtes76]

In Spain EG rerelease opened at seventh place on Friday and dropped to 10th on Saturday.

Edited June 30, 2019 by efialtes76

[terrestrial]

As the most will probably know, I did not like AEG, but the discussions about the whys and details to collect for both movies are great per the record nearness....

 

Reading through some pages here and there (I might have missed some posts or a lot already discussing this) I feel like some details seem not to get discussed or...

 

Why I think its not 100% the same:

then 3D was a way bigger thing, in especial for Avatar.

50% more additional material if I've read the the AEG details right

material actually being part of the movie vs credit scenes (if that detail is correct, please do not answer incl. spoiler)

Who actually also watched Avatar and why it might have been a reason for which kind of audience group to want to re-watch it (different groups) and why who will go to AEG (not me).

 

Only one example out of in my POV many differences:

MCU movies I'd not rate as romantic e.g., means if to list genres per ~ weight, romance might appear as #10 if at all and not #1 or #4 in general, like many movies will get.

Avatar too I'd not weight it as #1, but still way higher up than in/with all of the MCU movies.

I personally know women that did watch Avatar for that too, who do not watch MCU movies for that very reason alone, but I do not know a lot of that kind of movie goers, so I am not sure about % of the audience

 

Quote

that there would be an extended theatrical re-release of the film on August 27, 2010, exclusively in 3D theaters and IMAX 3D.^[278]Avatar: Special Edition includes an additional nine minutes of footage, all of which is CG,^[279] including an extension of the sex scene^[280] and various other scenes that were cut from the original theatrical film

 

Than: then the home cinema systems were way less sophisticated than nowadays, and way less wide spread, the speed to release in high quality to HV also less fast than the most distributors do it nowadays. Avatar got released in April, was for a lot of people the test version for equipment even. A lot of people already had the Blu-Ray, but at least some (like in my circle of friends) were a bit disappointed about the 3D at home possibilities for an affordable price range, then the prices for then high quality 3D was way higher in relation.

= on one side that will have satisfied the hunger earlier/already (I guess the majority), but for some even increase the wish to see it again in a cinema

 

Buzz about an hour+ cut material was way higher/more intense for Avatar than for AEG

 

Time span between release and release of the extended version differs, might also decrease / increase the wish for a cinematic re-watch for different kind of persons. I am one of those who might re-watch after a longer waiting time, but I am pretty sure there are people who prefer the time nearer release for it being more fresh in the mind/heart too

Dec-Aug vs April-June (dom)

 

3D buzz a GA must see vs AEG buzz with a broad GA appeal for other reasons.

Me, I watched Avatar very often for that, as it is the only movie I can see 3D a little bit, that includes outside of movie watching life, means I am generally / always only able to see 2D, no matter if I cook, drive a car or whatever. Then it was thought 3-4% of the world population are 2D sighted, per Avatar that got adjusted to probably 15% (varying degrees)

No other movie works for me personally till today, I still watch it in a cinema, if it gets shown at a really good 3D equipped room

 

Acc wiki Avatar had a 12 week long run, if I've understood the posts here at BOT correctly, AEG mostly gets a once per evening thing for a week only in at least some of the countries (I checked the 2 big/biggish cinemas I usually use, here that is correct with one exception: 1 cinema shows it additional once as a Sunday matinee)

 

= not matter the results, in my POV its again something not directly comparable