Weekend Thread | Wknd #'s A:IW 61.8, LOTP 18.5, BI 16.5, OB 10.1, AQP 6.4, IFP 3.7, R 3.4, T 2.2

[Legion Again]

13 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

7

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M

 

D

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C

8x 13th weekend multiplier is a little ambitious. Maybe if they shift all those WiT screens over for a MD reexpansion 

[That One Girl]

3 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

8x 13th weekend multiplier is a little ambitious. Maybe if they shift all those WiT screens over for a MD reexpansion 

 

So it's ambitious but not impossible?  THERE'S A CHANCE GUYS

[MovieMan89]

No, BP needs to stop at 705 or so. Any further and it's too shaky for IW winning, and that messes with the balance of everything. Thanos does not approve. 

Edited May 14, 2018 by MovieMan89

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, Boxofficerules said:

It feels like there is something fishy going on with A Wrinkle In Time.

Disney heard about @CoolEric258 threatening to self-ban himself and stepped in to try to save him.

 

Such a big hearted fella, that Mouse is. 

[RRA]

4 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

Very sad news

 

 

She and Reeve set the template for every spandex movie romantic pairing to come. RIP

[sfran43]

1	1	-	Avengers: Infinity War	BV	$61,817,000	$62,078,047	$+261,047	+0.4%	4,474	$547,829,103	$548,090,150	3
2	2	-	Life of the Party	WB (NL)	$18,500,000	$17,886,075	$-613,925	-3.3%	3,656	$18,500,000	$17,886,075	1
3	3	-	Breaking In (2018)	Uni.	$16,500,000	$17,630,285	$+1,130,285	+6.9%	2,537	$16,500,000	$17,630,285	1
4	4	-	Overboard (2018)	PNT	$10,100,000	$9,864,415	$-235,585	-2.3%	2,006	$29,593,977	$29,358,392	2
5	5	-	A Quiet Place	Par.	$6,400,000	$6,455,396	$+55,396	+0.9%	3,144	$169,552,634	$169,608,030	6
6	6	-	I Feel Pretty	STX	$3,710,000	$3,805,437	$+95,437	+2.6%	2,858	$43,856,576	$43,952,013	4
7	7	-	Rampage (2018)	WB (NL)	$3,380,000	$3,462,442	$+82,442	+2.4%	2,548	$89,744,663	$89,827,105	5
8	8	-	Tully (2018)	Focus	$2,240,000	$2,248,945	$+8,945	+0.4%	1,356	$6,980,060	$6,992,005	2
9	9	-	Black Panther	BV	$1,932,000	$2,077,207	$+145,207	+7.5%	1,370	$696,186,611	$696,331,818	13
10	10	-	RBG	Magn.	$1,165,000	$1,188,186	$+23,186	+2.0%	179	$2,002,767	$2,025,954	2
11	12	+1	Blockers	Uni.	$1,130,000	$1,115,025	$-14,975	-1.3%	1,111	$58,140,635	$58,126,660	6
12	13	+1	Isle Of Dogs	FoxS	$1,050,000	$1,072,567	$+22,567	+2.1%	1,046	$29,929,374	$29,951,941	8
13	14	+1	Super Troopers 2	Fox	$1,025,000	$982,594	$-42,406	-4.1%	1,379	$27,425,577	$27,383,171	4
14	15	+1	Truth or Dare	Uni.	$900,000	$916,100	$+16,100	+1.8%	1,269	$39,709,900	$39,727,000	5
15	16	+1	Ready Player One	WB	$900,000	$892,682	$-7,318	-0.8%	804	$134,570,919	$134,5

[sfran43]

1	AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR Buena Vista 4,474	$15,986,612 +131.8% / $3,573 $501,998,715 / 15	$26,938,937 +68.5% / $6,021 $528,937,652 / 16	$19,152,498 -28.9% / $4,281 $548,090,150 / 17	N/A
2	BREAKING IN (2018) Universal 2,537	$4,578,710 -- / $1,805 $4,578,710 / 1	$5,718,755 +24.9% / $2,254 $10,297,465 / 2	$7,332,820 +28.2% / $2,890 $17,630,285 / 3	N/A
3	LIFE OF THE PARTY Warner Bros. (New Line) 3,656	$4,935,225 -- / $1,350 $4,935,225 / 1	$6,070,432 +23% / $1,660 $11,005,657 / 2	$6,880,418 +13.3% / $1,882 $17,886,075 / 3	N/A
4	OVERBOARD (2018) Pantelion 2,006	$2,177,107 +106.4% / $1,085 $21,671,084 / 8	$3,529,440 +62.1% / $1,759 $25,200,524 / 9	$4,157,868 +17.8% / $2,073 $29,358,392 / 10	N/A
5	A QUIET PLACE Paramount 3,144	$1,816,601 +152.3% / $578 $164,969,235 / 36	$2,761,154 +52% / $878 $167,730,389 / 37	$1,877,641 -32% / $597 $169,608,030 / 38	N/A
6	I FEEL PRETTY STX Entertainment 2,858	$971,427 +107.4% / $340 $41,118,003 / 22	$1,427,167 +46.9% / $499 $42,545,170 / 23	$1,406,843 -1.4% / $492 $43,952,013 / 24	N/A
7	RAMPAGE (2018) Warner Bros. (New Line) 2,548	$820,911 +155.4% / $322 $87,185,574 / 29	$1,464,010 +78.3% / $575 $88,649,584 / 30	$1,177,521 -19.6% / $462 $89,827,105 / 31	N/A
8	TULLY (2018) Focus Features 1,356	$567,940 +74.5% / $419 $5,311,000 / 8	$878,875 +54.7% / $648 $6,189,875 / 9	$802,130 -8.7% / $592 $6,992,005 / 10	N/A
9	BLACK PANTHER Buena Vista 1,370	$556,249 +138.3% / $406 $694,810,860 / 85	$900,185 +61.8% / $657 $695,711,045 / 86	$620,773 -31% / $453 $696,331,818 / 87	N/A
10	A WRINKLE IN TIME Buena Vista 1,984	$192,095 +441.4% / $97 $95,847,971 / 64	$426,760 +122.2% / $215 $96,274,731 / 65	$537,925 +26% / $271 $96,812,656 / 66	N/A

[Barnack]

Really a good weekend for Breaking in after all.

[Jonwo]

1 hour ago, Mekanos said:

Solo should break it no problem.

 

Aladdin is a wild card next year though. I have no idea what to think about that movie. 

I wouldn't be shocked if Aladdin is the lowest grossing of the three Disney live action films. 

 

 

[baumer]

44 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Really a good weekend for Breaking in after all.

 

I'm still a little disappointed in it.  I thought it would get closer to 25million, with Packer's history.  But the Sat and Sun increases are nice.

[baumer]

55 minutes ago, RRA said:

She and Reeve set the template for every spandex movie romantic pairing to come. RIP

 

Well, RIP to the original super hero girl.  She lead a full life.  May she rest in peace.

[Jonwo]

Just now, baumer said:

 

I'm still a little disappointed in it.  I thought it would get closer to 25million, with Packer's history.  But the Sat and Sun increases are nice.

The film is already in profit thanks to the low budget so Universal will be pleased either way

[baumer]

1 minute ago, Jonwo said:

The film is already in profit thanks to the low budget so Universal will be pleased either way

 

Sure.  I get that.  But I'm just comparing it to other Will Packer films.  It opened on the low side.  

[Johnny Tran]

2 hours ago, Barnack said:

People knowing everything behind the scene like that must have known about Superman in the movie, they probably even knew about the CGI mustache saga.

I believe the Snyder/Whedon story was bigger than mustache gate,  I didn't hear about that until way after the fact. As far as Superman goes,  you'd have to spend time looking for spoilers..

[Mojoguy]

A Wrinkle in Time expansion flopped as expected.

Just a $583 PTA.

[Barnack]

8 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

The film is already in profit thanks to the low budget so Universal will be pleased either way

 

I wonder were the break even point happen for those micro budget but with a Studio release. With a say a small studio $25-30M release with a just small $6 million budget now a day. But it would not surprise me if it is now a bit higher than 18m (for a domestic only title like that).

 

American Hustle was really cheap, just 12m in budget, financing cost and  for the studio's after international pre-sales (a bit like Logan Lucky did), but had an estimated break even point around 40.6m because of it's 42.4m domestic planned release.

 

Think like a Man for example had a very small 13.5m budget but a high 30m domestic break even point because of a 32m domestic release. A much higher ratio than for a mid/high budget movie.

 

In very low budget with a giant studio wide release a la blumhouse title, the budget being 4m, 6m or 10m would not matter that much in the final movie total cost and not that much of a useful metric to estimate profit, being such a small percentage of the cost, the total cost/net production budget metric will have a lot of noise and vary a lot from title to title here.

 

 

 

[dxmatrixdt]

final weekday number predictions

carefully calculated numbers based on PTA % drops

 

I Can Only Imagine - 0.135 - 82.639

Sherlock Gnomes - 0.130 - 41.890

Chappaquiddick - 0.120 - 17.091

Traffik - 0.115 - 9.026

Acrimony - 0.068 - 43.310

Miracle Season - 0.052 - 9.980

Tomb Raider - 0.041 - 57.269

Game Night - 0.035 - 68.783

Paul, Apostle of Christ - 0.029 - 17.529

Peter Rabbit - 0.028 - 114.958

Pacific Rim - 0.024 - 59.188

 

Truth or Dare - 0.30  - 40.03

Bad Samaritan - 0.31 - 3.40

Wrinkle in Time - 0.31 - 97.12

Ready Player One - 0.34 - 134.90

Super Troopers - 0.41 - 27.79

Isle of Dogs - 0.44 - 30.39

Blockers - 0.46 - 58.59

Black Panther - 0.57 - 696.90

Tully - 0.92 - 7.91

Rampage - 1.06 - 90.89

I Feel Pretty - 1.35 - 45.30

A Quiet Place - 2.26 - 171.87

Overboard - 2.83 - 32.19

Breaking In - 4.43 - 22.06

Life of the Party - 5.27 - 23.16

Infinity War - 17.25 - 565.34

 

Edited May 14, 2018 by Thematrixfilm

[Jonwo]

Just now, Barnack said:

 

I wonder were the break even point happen for those micro budget but with a Studio release. With a say a small studio $25-30M release with a just small $6 million budget now a day. But it would not surprise me if it is now a bit higher than 18m (for a domestic only title like that).

 

American Hustle was really cheap, just 12m in budget, financing cost and  for the studio's after international pre-sales (a bit like Logan Lucky did), but had an estimated break even point around 40.6m because of it's 42.4m domestic planned release.

 

Think like a Man for example had a very small 13.5m budget but a high 30m domestic break even point because of a 32m domestic release. A much higher ratio than for a mid/high budget movie.

 

In very low budget with a giant studio wide release a la blumhouse title, the budget being 4m, 6m or 10m would not matter that much in the final movie total cost and not that much of a useful metric to estimate profit, being such a small percentage of the cost, the total cost/net production budget metric will have a lot of noise and vary a lot from title to title here.

 

 

 

I suspect Universal are banking on it doing most of its business domestic, the OS gross was $1m so clearly they're not expecting it to do well OS.

[meriodejaneiro]

2 hours ago, Mekanos said:

Solo should break it no problem.

 

Aladdin is a wild card next year though. I have no idea what to think about that movie. 

I think Solo will set records for this MD we, and I feel Aladdin will break them next year again. 

1 hour ago, Jonwo said:

I wouldn't be shocked if Aladdin is the lowest grossing of the three Disney live action films. 

 

 

Aladdin below TLK, ok. But below Dumbo? I have faith in the three of them for next year. Dumbo (300M+, ala TJB), Aladdin (500M++), TLK (700M). 

 

I don't know about other people, but for me, Aladdin was on par with TLK in importance and relevance. Like both of them impacted me so much on the same level (music, merchandise, re-watching the VHS again and again and again). Lot of people here are so sure about TLK winning by far, but I think Aladdin dom will be closer than we think). 

 

I'd say Aladdin will be 2019's BP and TLJ will be 2019's IW. (both big dom, but TLK way bigger ww)

[Jonwo]

Just now, meriodejaneiro said:

I think Solo will set records for this MD we, and I feel Aladdin will break them next year again. 

Aladdin below TLK, ok. But below Dumbo? I have faith in the three of them for next year. Dumbo (300M+, ala TJB), Aladdin (500M++), TLK (700M). 

 

I don't know about other people, but for me, Aladdin was on par with TLK in importance and relevance. Like both of them impacted me so much on the same level (music, merchandise, re-watching the VHS again and again and again). Lot of people here are so sure about TLK winning by far, but I think Aladdin dom will be closer than we think). 

 

I'd say Aladdin will be 2019's BP and TLJ will be 2019's IW. (both big dom, but TLK way bigger ww)

EmpireCity mentioned the footage of Aladdin wasn't great and Guy Ritchie is a bit of wildcard at this point.

 

I can see Dumbo doing well but not $300m well, it's not as beloved as TJB and it's essentially going to be an original story rather than a straight remake of Dumbo