Weekend Thread | Wknd #'s A:IW 61.8, LOTP 18.5, BI 16.5, OB 10.1, AQP 6.4, IFP 3.7, R 3.4, T 2.2

[Valonqar]

20 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

Expected a bigger increase , basically the same as the estimates.

Increase is increase, could have been decrease, I'll take a mini one over none. 

[MovieMan89]

Just now, filmlover said:

I will never stop laughing if Disney keeps A Wrinkle in Time in theaters until it has passed $100M and then disappears from ever being talked about again.

I guarantee it will stay in theaters/keep being tracked at least as long as Tomorrowland. So that gives it another 2 months minimum. 

[HouseOfTheSun]

Empire - 18.5m

Rth - 19.5m

Actuals 19m

perfectly balanced as all things should be 

[John Marston]

 

59 minutes ago, Quigley said:

A bit like Alice in Wonderland, in a way. I'm not implying that the drop will be as catastrophic as Alice 2's drop but it feels like the buzz has been completely absent.

 

It depends what you mean by buzz 

 

 

stuff like Deadpool, MCU, Incredibles, and Solo are a bit more “geek” oriented than JP so they likely will get more chatter online 

[terrestrial]

24 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Well that was a bigly jump from the $800K weekend estimate. It clearly had a great boost yesterday (not surprised since it was sold out at my theater).

 

23 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

It feels like there is something fishy going on with A Wrinkle In Time.

 

20 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

 

- -

see above.

 

I guess Mother's Day went better than some might have guessed (personally I have no interest to see that movie, book summary was not for my liking, but I seem not to have the typical 'mom's' taste)

[Taruseth]

21 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

So the gap between IW and TFA through their third weekends is 194m. As I've mentioned prior, TFA didn't have that exceptional of a run after weekend 3. It's not entirely impossible IW could have a similar run from this point and avoid the gap widening by much. If that happened, it could go as high as 720. 

Nah, I doubt that, TFA did 28,172,101 over the next set of Weekdays and 42,353,785.

I gutes $18M to $20M and $28M to $32M are more likely for IW, which would mean IW loses $18M to $24M over the next seven days. Which would widen the gap to $212M to $218M and mean IW would need to match TFA from there on exactly to get to $720M and Solo opens on Memorial Day, while at Martin Luther King no big movie opened against TFA.

[Barnack]

9 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I'm saying it's going to take another 2 month slow crawl or so from here before WiT gets to the 100m that was the whole reason behind this gigantic expansion in the first place. 

And I was saying that making a lot of money during the mother day weekend is also a good enough reason to do with, they already won that expansion.

[Rthmessiah]

AIW

 

F 15,986,612    -49    
S 26,938,937    -42    
S 19,152,498    -48    
WE 62,078,047    -46    
Cume 548,090,150

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, Barnack said:

And I was saying that making a lot of money during the mother day weekend is also a good enough reason to do with, they already won that expansion.

There's no way Disney did such a ridiculously massive expansion for any other reason than to get it to 100. 

[Rthmessiah]

BI

 

F 4,578,710    -    
S 5,718,755    -    
S 7,332,820    -    
WE 17,630,285    -

[Johnny Tran]

1 hour ago, Barnack said:

I did not follow that much and I could take your word for it (But I knew, Batman&Superman and the same one would be in this one).

 

Regardless marketing, the ending of BvS is a direct start of Justice League the movie and how much of the JL potential audience didn't saw BvS ?

I watched BvS,  SS and WW in theaters but I didn't watch JL until months after it's release. My decision to not bother with it had nothing to do with BvS,  SS or WW.  I didn't see Superman in the marketing,  I couldn't tell where it was going to pick up or when the movie was even supposed to be happening.  It was jarring to see heroes on screen that we hadn't really seen in previous movies.  That's not the fault of BvS,  that's the fault of WB.

 

Between WB rushing the shit out of it,  knowing nothing of Flash or Aquaman, knowing everything surrounding Snyder/Whedon, etc..   all of that kept us home. 

 

[MovieMan89]

10 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

Nah, I doubt that, TFA did 28,172,101 over the next set of Weekdays and 42,353,785.

I gutes $18M to $20M and $28M to $32M are more likely for IW, which would mean IW loses $18M to $24M over the next seven days. Which would widen the gap to $212M to $218M and mean IW would need to match TFA from there on exactly to get to $720M and Solo opens on Memorial Day, while at Martin Luther King no big movie opened against TFA.

IW could match TFA pretty closely after next weekend. I think the MD drop is going to be way lighter than people are thinking because it's not only a holiday but it could also be course correcting a bit from the harsher drop in weekend 4 from losing the IMAX screens. Also, will IW get double features with Solo at drive ins from Disney? That would make sense. The 720 number is a ceiling though, I agree it probably won't get that far. I'm just hoping for 705 for the obvious reason. 

Edited May 14, 2018 by MovieMan89

[TwoMisfits]

48 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

I finally won a Casino bet again - yeah!:)

[ChipDerby]

Weird.

 

It fell inline almost on the dot with Ultron, minus Saturday. This is because last Saturday was severely deflated.

[Barnack]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

There's no way Disney did such a ridiculously massive expansion for any other reason than to get it to 100. 

Even if theater wanted something to show and didn't ask for a minimal marketing budget or needed to 4wall it ? There is no need to ship prints to theater and have inherent cost into expending now a day.

 

Why not do it if there is an market of over 1m movie to be made and the movie is not out of home ent yet ? Is there any reason not to do it ? Regardless of the motivation, it already paid off and brought them money.

 

Look at Cars 3 giant expansion on Labor day weekend:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=cars3.htm

 

Making 2 millions was a good enough reason to do it, didn't need to reach any TV contract number to justify making that much money profiting on an holiday weekend.

 

Look at many holidays weekend of the last few year (labor day, 4 july, etc...) it seem common to have at least one movie getting a 1,000%, 1,500% giant type expansion.

[Barnack]

6 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

Between WB rushing the shit out of it,  knowing nothing of Flash or Aquaman, knowing everything surrounding Snyder/Whedon, etc..   all of that kept us home. 

 

People knowing everything behind the scene like that must have known about Superman in the movie, they probably even knew about the CGI mustache saga.

[ChipDerby]

11 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

There's no way Disney did such a ridiculously massive expansion for any other reason than to get it to 100. 

 

Maybe Oprah asked for it. That'd be a reasonable reason.

[ChipDerby]

On 5/11/2018 at 11:25 AM, ChipMunky said:

My daily guess for IW is probably:

 

Friday - $15.4 mil

Saturday - $23.34 mil

Sunday - $20.15 mil

 

$58.89 mil

 

(obviously since I do week to week that Saturday number will probably be higher, and Sunday probably lower due to the bad Saturday last week)

 

This post was pretty spot on.

[a2k]

548.1+62.1*1.85 = 663 (CW legs)

548.1+62.1*2.0 = 672

548.1+62.1*2.1 = 678.5

548.1+62.1*2.2 = 685

548.1+62.1*2.3 = 691

548.1+62.1*2.45 = 700

[Lordmandeep]

26 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

Empire - 18.5m

Rth - 19.5m

Actuals 19m

perfectly balanced as all things should be 

 

 

Dread it, fear from it, run from it, these guys are always right.