DEADPOOL 2 WEEKEND THREAD | Spoilers = BANNED INTO OBLIVION | Dp2 125M and 300 WW debut...Asgard Sun update pg 123

[dudalb]

7 minutes ago, Nova said:

I had it around the OW of the first with the max being $150M. It won't even get to the OW of the first though 

 

DP2 matching the OW of the original was never a strong possibility.

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

And it could still easily do 130-140mil. I don't know why you think it's going to have a massive Saturday drop.

Dude, you realize 53m would give it a 36% preview share of OD right? That’s more preview frontlaoded than the DCEU movies, even BvS. Highly unlikely for a good Sat hold with that kind of front loading going on.

[Mekanos]

There is something to be said about the novelty of the first movie. It came out at a time the general public was familiar enough with superhero movies and their tropes that a hyper-aware parody would click super well. I'm seeing 2 Sunday though so I don't know if it has a novelty of its own.

[Zakiyyah6]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Dude, you realize 53m would give it a 36% preview share of OD right? That’s more preview frontlaoded than the DCEU movies, even BvS. Highly unlikely for a good Sat hold with that kind of front loading going on.

None of the DCEU films were R rated gross out comedies that headed so much towards teenage boys. I get what you are saying but I still think it will do better on Saturday than what you are projecting. I won't deny the facts if I am wrong though.

[langer]

21 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

115-120 isn't a trainwreck for DP2, but it's certainly not good under any circumstance. If you don't understand why then consider that the only superhero sequels this decade to decrease from their predecessor on OW are Age of Ultron, Apocalypse, and Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance. In AoU's case that's because it was following up the all time OW record. It either had to break the OW record or decrease, so it's not exactly a good comparison. So that simply leaves DP2 in the company of Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance and 

someone forgot about ASM2, The Wolverine, Kick Ass and TDKR

 

Edit : and this drunk guy just realized we are talking about OW... disregard ASM2 and TDKR!!! 

Edited May 19, 2018 by langer

[TwoMisfits]

So, since we have a few doom and gloom posters for legs off this Friday, I've posted a Deadpool 2 legs bet on the Casino board...open to all 4 doom and gloomers here for 100 pts each that DP2 will have total DOM BO legs of at least 2.1x+ off the OW (since you all keep throwing out the possibility of 2.0x or less off this Friday, I figured 2.1x was a bonus to you)...if you are this down on the movie and its chances, you can at least cheer yourself up with the shot at fake board money if your gloom comes true:).  

Edited May 19, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[John Marston]

7 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

There is something to be said about the novelty of the first movie. It came out at a time the general public was familiar enough with superhero movies and their tropes that a hyper-aware parody would click super well. I'm seeing 2 Sunday though so I don't know if it has a novelty of its own.

 

 

yeah, the first one was the first major parody of a superhero film and probably appealed to even some non superhero fans due to that. Kind of like Scary Movie and horror movies

[Webslinger]

1 minute ago, Mekanos said:

There is something to be said about the novelty of the first movie. It came out at a time the general public was familiar enough with superhero movies and their tropes that a hyper-aware parody would click super well. 

Agreed. 

 

I also think it's worth noting - as we did two years ago when it opened - that Deadpool basically played at a sequel level right away. The sense of novelty played a huge role in that breakout, and it's hard to replicate.

 

I'm tempted to bookmark this post for September 2019 if the It sequel "only" opens to something like $115 million.

[Jake Gittes]

Just now, Webslinger said:

Agreed. 

 

I also think it's worth noting - as we did two years ago when it opened - that Deadpool basically played at a sequel level right away. The sense of novelty played a huge role in that breakout, and it's hard to replicate.

 

I'm tempted to bookmark this post for September 2019 if the It sequel "only" opens to something like $115 million.

I feel like 115 would be a big accomplishment for that movie.

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, langer said:

someone forgot about ASM2, The Wolverine, Kick Ass and TDKR

TASM2 and TDKR increased. Wolverine pretty much severed all ties to Origins, so I’d hesitate to call it a sequel. You’re right, I did forget about Kick-ass 2 (but who the hell hasnt?).

[Mekanos]

I think It 2 will open bigger because not only is it a sequel, it's the finale. 140M OW/350M DOM.

Edited May 19, 2018 by Mekanos

[aabattery]

7 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

I think It 2 will open bigger because not only is it a sequel, it's the finale. 150M OW/350M DOM.

 

Sequels opening bigger is not a rule. IIRC someone did a big count a while back and it was something like a 50/50 split between increasing and decreasing. I think we've just been spoiled by the MCU sequels going up and up and up every time which has really warped a lot of peoples perspectives.

[Rebeccas]

I will say the late night shows of DP2 near me look super packed so maybe this just plays to a later crowd.

[Webslinger]

While Amazing Spider-Man 2 technically isn't an example of a superhero sequel dropping from its predecessor's opening weekend, that's primarily because the predecessor opened on a Tuesday. Had the first film opened on Friday, it likely would have bowed around $100 million, which is a little higher than the second film went.

[Zakiyyah6]

IT 2 has the advantage of not stupidly being placed in the Summer "just cause." Still, of course it will make less than the first but it will still be a huge hit.

 

Anyway, it's too soon to be talking about this because Deadpool 2 could still hit 60mil Friday for all we know.

Edited May 19, 2018 by Zakiyyah6

[Blaze Heatnix]

Why are people comparing a possible 125/130 million weekend ( 3 days ) for DP2 to DP1's opening weekend that was based on 4 days ( with 2 of them inflated by Valentine's and President's Day )?

 

Even if it's 115 million, it's still good. Movie will make a profit. I think some people really should relax. Friday isn't even over yet. Numbers can even change.

 

If anything, DP2's numbers are incredible and really good. This is a R rated violent, brutal movie. That's the only superhero R rated franchise where 2 movies managed to open with more than 100 million. It's crazy.

 

DP 1 opening weekend had 4 days and 2 of them had inflated numbers. Never ever forget that!

Edited May 19, 2018 by Blaze Heatnix

[Barnack]

51 minutes ago, REC said:

I'm not as certain as you.  Weren't there rumors that the production budget went over 300m?  Basically stemming from shooting the movie twice.  This doesn't seem like an entirely unreasonable estimate, given that RO had a production budget of 200m, and we know the reshot/scrunched JL cost WB a lot more than they wanted to admit to.

 

If that's true, their break even including marketing costs is what... 450m give or take?  Which means the movie needs BO gross something in the neighborhood of 750-800m to break even.

 

Rogue One would seem to be the target.  RO basically made 1bn WW, for Solo that might be a decent profit.  But if it can't do RO numbers I would think it would be at risk of being the first unprofitable SW movie.

Reshoot (and I suspect even if they are bigger than expected with that type of cast) does not necessarily add that much to the cost, a lot of the cost (lot of the above the line, post production, set construction, and so on) will not double even if you reshoot the movie from scrath, some will not even change.

 

The re-shoot on a movie like After Earth for example did cost 3.3 million.

 

MadMax giant massive reshoot + principal photography overrun together with the location issue apparently did cost a bit under 30m:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2018/04/17/box-office-a-sequel-to-mad-max-fury-road-is-a-huge-risk/#2ca544005f65

 

Has for a 450m production cost + P&A that would be possible I guess, if they go for a near 200m world giant release. I can imagine that revenues by box office dollar rules are a bit different for a Star Wars movies (and some SH movies as well), they have so many more ways of being moneytized than the rest of the field, but because they make them every year it must become hard to pin point the revenues added from a particular movie.

 

Some of the most expensive Sony movie in term of Production cost + World releasing cost we known about

 

Spider Man 3: 542.98m (656m in today $)

Amazing Spider Man: 460m (501.98m today $)

Amazing Spider Man 2: 455m (481.54 in today $)

Da Vinci Code: 398m (495m in today dollar)

2012: 397.2m (463m)

MIB 3 (426m)

 

So Amazing Spider Man 2 is really close to your estimate, but a bit of a bad comparable because Sony didn't had access to merchandising revenues like a Disney do, but if you are interested in the if you do not consider Merch revenues in your break even estimation a really good one.

 

Studio estimated a 9m profit would be made on ASM2 life time, 14m for them with a 5m lost for the other investor, with a 44.25m bonus.

 

If Solo is more a profit participation type of deal with people (and with a lot of people just happy to be in star wars not asking for points) and if Solo box office is near 0 in china (vs 94m for ASM 2) and much more domestic heavy it should break even with a significantly smaller box office total than 708m.

 

ASM 2 took almost 700m to break even because the net budget + talent bonus got over 305m and was 70% intl box office and a disliked movie that performed badly on home video, a Solo even at a 450m prod + WW P&A cost would probably be closer to s 600m GP break, like a 300/305, 605m or something. (well the usual doubling it's budget+creative share rules should easily apply for a SW movie, they are domestic heavy).

 

Edited May 19, 2018 by Barnack

[LOGAN'sLuckyRun]

This thread is so bad that I'm currently in the hospital!

 

i should be seeing the doc soon. I'll keep anyone who cares posted.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

MCU sequels generally get a boost from having an Avengers film in-between instalments or an addition of a major supporting character to raise the anticipation levels. Even Ant-Man and the Wasp will get a decent boost partly because of Ant-Man's Civil War appearance. Just makes GOTG Vol 2's Opening Weekend the more impressive.

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

My theater added another show at 11:15, but it's sold nothing  The next two shows are PACKED tho