HAN SOLO MEMORIAL (day weekend) THREAD | Solo Flops Domestically with 83M/101M weekend. Spectacularly Bombs Overseas with 65M weekend.

[FantasticBeasts]

5 minutes ago, harrycaul said:

Is the animated Dumbo that popular today? Do kids still watch it?  I don't remember caring about it even when I was a kid, but maybe I'm alone on that.

I didn't care for it too. It won't do well. It doesn't have the nostalgic factor for young adults and it is not as popular as other animation films. Not to mention that it's audience will be limited to U-12 and the parents that will be dragged in the cinema.

[Chewy]

It's not plot, almost every blockbuster follows the same plot template. It's setting, tone, characters, theme, etc

[terrestrial]

1 hour ago, Litio said:

It is implied that he said that it would be a success u...... because success depends on the budget. He tried to lessen the responsibility of how much Solo should to do at the box office with posts like this: "Lol at the "rumors" of a $300m budget on Solo.     I guess if "rumors" are defined as shit on this site posters completely made up."

...

*Budgets Deadline releases usually are after the tax rebates, not the gross budget. 

.....

Yes, merchandising is great, but remember that not all revenue goes to Disney.....

he reacted to a lot of posts in the sum and again the quote you use was about the UNKNOWN to us for NOW budget real costs for the studio. Yes the budget and the additional costs will be obviously the main starting point for calculating the final sum and more. But not the only ones.

But if the 'budget' - in this case the costs plus this, minus that, are in question for reasons e.g. like he stated, then it is too early (btw around 1-2 years too early see later) to be sure about anything and as such way too early to use them as 'proof' for anything as well

 

DHD does release way later in time (like e.g. in their ~ years end summaries) and uses for that the 'agreed on' official budget as far as even released, plus the changes they learned per statements, articles of other media and so on. Sometimes they use guesses out of the industry they get their hands on. Or something like the Sony leak happens or the papers they did in preparation for the stockholder something some years back at Disney's
But not at this time-span in release because at this time DHD (nor anyone outside of the involved ppl, and even them only to a degree)

Spoiler

 

will not have any hard numbers about real production costs as e.g. the rebate process/audit tends to be finished a looooong time after a movie gets released.

And as such all 'proof', knowledge, is simply nothing more than estimates based on comparisons or simple guesses

That includes also e.g. other companies' work they bill to the production, especially if overtime was included. There are and will be a lot of discussions about to be billed hours... between the accounting departments till all of those bills are even get paid. As those bills are included into the rebate process, alone that detail slows it down, but there are many others.

A production sometimes runs even long after the release (e.g. ~ neutral example, watch the extended version of LotR, they show possible situations for that), including decommission of sets and whatever.

 

 

Are you earnestly think anyone here would assume all of the merchandise revenue go to Disney? I guess even the freshest newbie will know better.

Yes, there are fees beforehand and %.
But there is also a lot like

Spoiler

 

'their ' own produced things, see articles they sell at their stores, like in Disneyland and so on. What is with the internal fees for using e.g. Star Tours, what is with future use for their streaming service they prepare?

No own production costs is not correct either, incl that their highest paid ppl have to sign up on the designs, other ppl have to pre-select them and so on (btw, those are in my POV way to old and far away from what in especial female fans / interested might like, including for MCU articles). Depending on the details not only in the US.

What is with HV digital details we do not know that much about? What is with the little push even a small release gives to the average sales for the other titles as well or the e.g. generic 'Star Wars' (without a specific subtitle), the games, the audience counts for the TV-series or books or whatever

A lot of that is internal accounting

What is with MAYBE less than usual advertising for the movie, as I read repeatedly about no advertising encountered outside of cinemas in at least a few OS countries (that includes myself, I saw exactly once a Solo Trailer in a cinema, no Solo advertising at the ticket sellers headline-bar like usually and so on)

I read about it here (hence why I am at BOT in general), how would DHD know about that per country? As far as I know they do not have internationally correspondents.

I hope you see, there are possible differences to average productions that get released ww

 

 

Again, me personally are not in doubt about Solo not good  final BO number, but I doubt the necessity to be so over the top about it (btw, even if they wouldn't have sold one ticket ww there would not be a need for a lot of the behaviour here).

Solo will have way less impact for Disney than at least some of you would love or like. That's all about in the end, and give some possibilities as examples

 

The main reason I started to post about Solo this time (and shortly before that at Chine/International about another movie that too got some ppl loosing their minds over) is that IMHO a few here seem to have earnestly a problem to stay friendly with/to members and staff that have another POV (I do not mean myself, I mean certain members that get out-of-line in their wording to others), especially if those dare to bring up points that are actually based on more than generalities - its about black and white spitting aggression ... posts vs ppl trying to show the shades of grey (who sometimes also loose their nerves a bit)

I do not get excited about anything numbers related one way or the other. I am not at BOT for predictions,

Spoiler

 

records broken or whatever like the most ppl are here seem to be.

I am into ww finals, the influencing details per country, region,... including sport events, scandals, seasons/weather, local traditions and local competing movies and whatever. The film is not even part of any of my usual 2 per years projects, I do not pick more than one franchise title per year.

I learned decades ago, that forums like then at BOM, later elsewhere, now here are a far better source for that than to search through mountains of articles ww with auto translate (I read a lot of those too, not this year)

 

used spoilers as it is so long (again)

[Sam]

DP2 Friday number is indeed a bit puzzling. But base on its weekdays performance, maybe it’ll pull a reversed MCU and be stronger on weekdays as opposed to weekends. That could be good for $300M goal as summer weekdays are coming.

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, harrycaul said:

Yeah, I get that. But is the movie itself still something people want to see?

Disney will likely mostly market it to small children (look at that cute baby elephant!) and families so yeah, it'll likely make a killing.

[SpiritComix]

7 minutes ago, Alli said:

Same thing with MCU tho. They have the same plot

 

 

[FantasticBeasts]

Also Disney needs to learn from Solo and reschedule all the live action remakes asap.

They will flop If they keep such a tight release schedule. What the heck are they thinking releasing TLK and Aladin within 3 months? There won't be any left too soon. lol

[Chewy]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Disney will likely mostly market it to small children (look at that cute baby elephant!) and families so yeah, it'll likely make a killing.

 

Interesting thing is it seems like Shazam will be targeted squarely at families too and it opens a week later

 

Honestly next year's schedule is entirely ridiculous, not just on the Disney end

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, Sam said:

DP2 Friday number is indeed a bit puzzling. But base on its weekdays performance, maybe it’ll pull a reversed MCU and be stronger on weekdays as opposed to weekends. That could be good for $300M goal as summer weekdays are coming.

It most likely had a very strong college age attendance.  72% of colleges were out as of last week.  Like the film targeting seniors (Book Club) a large part of it's base had open weekdays.

[franfar]

So deadline says Solo cost "well north" of $300m, minus advertising. RIP

[That One Girl]

2019 is gonna have like 3 Justice League/Solo's in the same year just because there's so much fucking shit coming out.  

[FilmBuff]

3 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Also Disney needs to learn from Solo and reschedule all the live action remakes asap.

They will flop If they keep such a tight release schedule. What the heck are they thinking releasing TLK and Aladin within 3 months? There won't be any left too soon. lol

 

TLK is going to make bank. No reason to postpone it

[Sam]

I love Aladdin but man, Guy Ritchie as Director is just unbearable. 

 

Considering how Memorial Day weekend has been treating Disney, that movie’s outlook is not so bright next year. 

 

[John Marston]

1 minute ago, franfar said:

So deadline says Solo cost "well north" of $300m, minus advertising. RIP

 

And wr had people here saying no way Solo could cost 250m lol

[Zakiyyah6]

Deadpool is R rated, it makes sense for the weekdays to be unusually strong.

[harrycaul]

4 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Also Disney needs to learn from Solo and reschedule all the live action remakes asap.

They will flop If they keep such a tight release schedule. What the heck are they thinking releasing TLK and Aladin within 3 months? There won't be any left too soon. lol

They may know Aladdin is going to be awful.

[Alli]

12 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

If that were true than the MCU wouldn't be as successful as it has been.

The formula works. Why change it..

[John Marston]

Aladdin might underperform domestically but should still do well enough overseas to not be a flop

[Sam]

2 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

2019 is gonna have like 3 Justice League/Solo's in the same year just because there's so much fucking shit coming out.  

How likely is it that A:IW part 2 gonna be one of those JL/Solo and finally achieve the 2.1x leg you yearned for? 

[Cmasterclay]

Just looked at the schedule and think that outside Jurassic World, there's maybe not a single non-Disney film that will make 200m domestically. So even with this fail, they're still our evil corporate overlords for the foreseeable future.