HAN SOLO MEMORIAL (day weekend) THREAD | Solo Flops Domestically with 83M/101M weekend. Spectacularly Bombs Overseas with 65M weekend.

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

2 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

Rogue One seems like the best comparison, as the only other Star Wars "spinoff" movie to which we can compare Solo. Rogue One felt more akin to your typical Star Wars movie (the main franchise) than Solo does (from my perspective, at least), so my guess/expectation is that Solo will not be as frontloaded as Rogue One. It is also opening with far less in preview grosses, too, suggesting perhaps it won't be as frontloaded. Thus, my guess would be that the percentage of opening day from previews will be lower - but how much lower? If I'm wrong and it essentially follows Rogue One (~40% of opening day from previews), then Solo is looking at a ~$32-37M total Friday gross. But right now I'm pegging that as the minimum.

 

If previews instead make up say ~35% of the opening day gross, then Solo is looking at ~$37-43M opening day. Then the rest depends on how the long weekend pans out.

 

But I'm just thinking out loud. Watch me be totally wrong and the film is pretty frontloaded. I'm not confident in pegging how it will pan out. We'll find out!  

 

For comparison - preview gross (and share of opening day from previews in brackets):

 

Solo: A Star Wars Story — 13.0 to 15.0 million (TBD%)

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story — 29.0 million (40.8%)

Other films in the $13-15M preview gross area for comparison:

Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith — 16.9 million (33.8%)
Transformers : Revenge of the Fallen — 16.8 million (27.1%)
Beauty and the Beast — 16.3 million (25.5%)
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 — 16 million (35.1%)
Furious 7 — 15.8 million (23.4%)
Iron Man 3 — 15.6 million (22.7%)
Spider-Man: Homecoming — 15.4 million (30.5%)
Thor: Ragnarok — 14.5 million (31.0%)
Transformers: Dark of the Moon — 13.5 million (35.8%)
The Hobbit: Un Unexpected Journey — 13 million (35.0%)
Deadpool — 12.7 million (26.8%)
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix — 12 million (27.1%)

 

Peace,

Mike

Yeah ive been looking at this chart http://www.boxofficereport.com/previewgrosses.html. Hard to be uber frontloaded in the teen preview range. Mockingjay2 was the most frontloaded at 6.4ish. Solo has a inflated Sunday to work with at the very least

[Mojoguy]

13-15m?

Solo is the next Justice League.

[YLF]

NBA western conference finals are affecting solos previews sales. lol

[Zakiyyah6]

And so the excuses start. "No Solo is really going to reach 200mil 4 days guyz!"

[LOGAN'sLuckyRun]

2 minutes ago, YLF said:

NBA western conference finals are affecting solos previews sales. lol

Current level of denial

Nah, I hope you're right

Edited May 25, 2018 by LOGAN'sLuckyRun

[YLF]

1 minute ago, LOGAN'sLuckyRun said:

Current level of denial

Nah, I hope you're right

Its a joke lol im not being serious.

[TwoMisfits]

So, continuing the uncanny similarities between JL and Solo...does anyone think Rotten Tomatoes skewered Solo as badly as JL, but in a different way...

 

For JL, they held the ratings and made a big show of unveiling mediocre critical reviews as a major "event" 48 hours before open...and presales fell off a cliff...

 

For Solo, they posted their "consensus" a week out that "Solo: A Star Wars Story should satisfy...longtime fans who check their expectations at the theater door."  I mean, that's the most passive aggressive message you could give to fans...if you're a fan, check your fandom at the door or don't come...I mean, this base, like Marvel, practically is the GA domestically, so you pretty much told all of the GA that if they love things about Star Wars, they probably won't love them in this movie...and presales fell off a cliff the last few days, ala JL...

 

Now, it could be said the presales were going to be this way anyway, but for 2 movies that many posters have now said are "good, fun, but nothing uber-special"...well, it couldn't have helped either film...

[John Marston]

So the main hope is that it plays like a Pixar film over the weekend. Lol

[Chewy]

6 minutes ago, YLF said:

NBA western conference finals are affecting solos previews sales. lol

Harden and CP3 got everyone flopping @MrPink

[Zakiyyah6]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, continuing the uncanny similarities between JL and Solo...does anyone think Rotten Tomatoes skewered Solo as badly as JL, but in a different way...

 

For JL, they held the ratings and made a big show of unveiling mediocre critical reviews as a major "event" 48 hours before open...and presales fell off a cliff...

 

For Solo, they posted their "consensus" a week out that "Solo: A Star Wars Story should satisfy...longtime fans who check their expectations at the theater door."  I mean, that's the most passive aggressive message you could give to fans...if you're a fan, check your fandom at the door or don't come...I mean, this base, like Marvel, practically is the GA domestically, so you pretty much told all of the GA that if they love things about Star Wars, they probably won't love them in this movie...and presales fell off a cliff the last few days, ala JL...

 

Now, it could be said the presales were going to be this way anyway, but for 2 movies that many posters have now said are "good, fun, but nothing uber-special"...well, it couldn't have helped either film...

The answer to your question is no. The "record ticket sales in 24 hours" came from hardcore fans and nothing more. 

[Ryan Reynolds]

Justice League and BvS writer is co-writing Episode IX

[Jay Beezy]

2 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

The answer to your question is no. The "record ticket sales in 24 hours" came from hardcore fans and nothing more. 

Yup. Not a peep about presales after that.

Edited May 25, 2018 by Jay Beezy

[YLF]

3 minutes ago, Chewy said:

Harden and CP3 got everyone flopping @MrPink

LMAO omg thats hilarious

[Nova]

7 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, continuing the uncanny similarities between JL and Solo...does anyone think Rotten Tomatoes skewered Solo as badly as JL, but in a different way...

 

For JL, they held the ratings and made a big show of unveiling mediocre critical reviews as a major "event" 48 hours before open...and presales fell off a cliff...

 

For Solo, they posted their "consensus" a week out that "Solo: A Star Wars Story should satisfy...longtime fans who check their expectations at the theater door."  I mean, that's the most passive aggressive message you could give to fans...if you're a fan, check your fandom at the door or don't come...I mean, this base, like Marvel, practically is the GA domestically, so you pretty much told all of the GA that if they love things about Star Wars, they probably won't love them in this movie...and presales fell off a cliff the last few days, ala JL...

 

Now, it could be said the presales were going to be this way anyway, but for 2 movies that many posters have now said are "good, fun, but nothing uber-special"...well, it couldn't have helped either film...

It doesn't help that reviews for the movie were put out ten days beforehand and when they came out they weren't exactly enthusiastic. So there was no hype to build off of them for those ten days. Couple that with them being overshadowed by another blockbuster movie coming out the week before it which happened to get better reviews than folks were expecting. 

 

But this is all on Disney imo and has very little to do with Rotten Tomatoes. Sure that critics consensus is a backhanded compliment (if that) but it doesnt change the fact that the trailers for Solo just didnt hit it out of the park and the marketing was dull and in some markets outright nonexistent. It's almost as if Disney was anticipating this to underperform and thus stopped caring. 

Edited May 25, 2018 by Nova

[expensiveho]

3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, continuing the uncanny similarities between JL and Solo...does anyone think Rotten Tomatoes skewered Solo as badly as JL, but in a different way...

 

For JL, they held the ratings and made a big show of unveiling mediocre critical reviews as a major "event" 48 hours before open...and presales fell off a cliff...

 

For Solo, they posted their "consensus" a week out that "Solo: A Star Wars Story should satisfy...longtime fans who check their expectations at the theater door."  I mean, that's the most passive aggressive message you could give to fans...if you're a fan, check your fandom at the door or don't come...I mean, this base, like Marvel, practically is the GA domestically, so you pretty much told all of the GA that if they love things about Star Wars, they probably won't love them in this movie...and presales fell off a cliff the last few days, ala JL...

 

Now, it could be said the presales were going to be this way anyway, but for 2 movies that many posters have now said are "good, fun, but nothing uber-special"...well, it couldn't have helped either film...

What about not blaming anyone else except their own marketing? It doesn't need to be a good movie, I mean SS was 3x worse that JL but had a great marketing (and everyone that could've cared about RT knew the movie would be trash)

 

Solo marketing was a complete non-factor. 

 

[expensiveho]

1 minute ago, Nova said:

It doesn't help that reviews for the movie were put out ten days beforehand and when they came out they weren't exactly enthusiastic. So there was no hype to build off of them for those ten days. Couple that with them being overshadowed by another blockbuster movie coming out the week before it. 

 

But this is all on Disney imo and has very little to do with Rotten Tomatoes. Sure that critics consensus is a backhanded compliment (if that) but it doesnt change the fact that the trailers for Solo just didnt hit it out of the park and the marketing was dull and in some markets outright nonexistent. It's almost as if Disney was anticipating this to underperform and thus stopped caring. 

Disney marketing has been really bad lately with their mid-sized hits. Moana, Coco, AWiT & Solo suffered from this.

[SpiritComix]

A wise tweet from yesterday

 

 

If Boba Fett gets a movie before Leia, I’m going to burn it all down.

Leia was a political leader/spy/early member of the Rebel Alliance in her TEENS.

Boba Fett was accidentally bumped into a hole in the ground by a blind man as a setup for a burp joke.

— Rebecca Pahle (@RebeccaPahle) May 23, 2018

[Mekanos]

Just now, SpiritComix said:

A wise tweet from yesterday

 

 

To be fair, there's no way Lucasfilm would dare make a Leia movie without Carrie, at least for the forseeable future.

[Chewy]

I'm still trying to recover from 'prolefeed', send flowers

[Eastwood47]

7 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, continuing the uncanny similarities between JL and Solo...does anyone think Rotten Tomatoes skewered Solo as badly as JL, but in a different way...

 

For JL, they held the ratings and made a big show of unveiling mediocre critical reviews as a major "event" 48 hours before open...and presales fell off a cliff...

 

For Solo, they posted their "consensus" a week out that "Solo: A Star Wars Story should satisfy...longtime fans who check their expectations at the theater door."  I mean, that's the most passive aggressive message you could give to fans...if you're a fan, check your fandom at the door or don't come...I mean, this base, like Marvel, practically is the GA domestically, so you pretty much told all of the GA that if they love things about Star Wars, they probably won't love them in this movie...and presales fell off a cliff the last few days, ala JL...

 

Now, it could be said the presales were going to be this way anyway, but for 2 movies that many posters have now said are "good, fun, but nothing uber-special"...well, it couldn't have helped either film...

I was stunned that a film with so many issues in production lifted it's embargo so early. I have to believe someone high up in Lucasfilm felt the movie would review better, but that was a huge gamble that never came to pass. And now the mixed scores along with all of the leaks in the story pretty much removed all of it's momentum. Had they kept it under wraps until yesterday and let the marketing drive the message I think we would have had a very different weekend than what this is wrapping up to be.