Weekend Thread: Estimates ~ CRA 25.235M, The Meg 21.15M, M22 13.62M, M:I-F 10.5M, Alpha 10.5M, DCR 8.862M, BK 7M, SM 4.965M, HT3:SV 3.675M, MM!HWGA 3.385M

[TwoMisfits]

26 minutes ago, DAJK said:

3.5/10 seems like an Overperformance for Alpha. But ya know what, it can take any win it can get, since apparently it's a pretty good movie. Will be seeing it in 2 and a half hours

With a production budget estimated at the high $50s (or possibly higher), it's a shame Alpha does seem like it will be the financial misfire a lot of us thought (without a big overseas pick up)...it's even more a shame b/c if it is actually way better than the previews sold it, it probably deserved better than to be marketed to a Teen Titans Go movie audience with a subpar trailer...the movie is probably tailor-made for an adult art-focused audience, and I don't think it ever tried to find that group, nor to find a good date to reach that group (b/c right now, there's an overabundance of new material for adults to savor, and it's just become one more premier work in an August stuffed with them)...

[baumer]

30 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

Did most think it'd open under ~19?

 

Yep.

[a2k]

Don't think Meg can reach CRA this weekend. CRA should do 21+ if that Fri from Deadline holds...

6.5

8.8 (+35%)

6.2 (-30%)

= 21.5

[DAJK]

42 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

With a production budget estimated at the high $50s (or possibly higher), it's a shame Alpha does seem like it will be the financial misfire a lot of us thought (without a big overseas pick up)...it's even more a shame b/c if it is actually way better than the previews sold it, it probably deserved better than to be marketed to a Teen Titans Go movie audience with a subpar trailer...the movie is probably tailor-made for an adult art-focused audience, and I don't think it ever tried to find that group, nor to find a good date to reach that group (b/c right now, there's an overabundance of new material for adults to savor, and it's just become one more premier work in an August stuffed with them)...

wikipedia says the budget is 80M 

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, DAJK said:

wikipedia says the budget is 80M 

Yeah, it's more likely that, but Deadline was spinning high $50s, so I went for the more optimistic number:)...

[Wrath]

1 hour ago, Barnack said:

The pre-sales on fandango were really west-coast heavy.

Iirc, 1/3 of Americans of Asian descent live in CA.

[grim22]

Just now, Wrath said:

Iirc, 1/3 of Americans of Asian descent live in CA.

The West coast is closer to the Asians depicted in the movie as well.

[LonePirate]

Just got back from seeing Crazy Rich Asians. Who do I need to speak to about acquiring my Movie Diversity Card? To prove my credentials, I have seen:

• Black Panther
• Love, Simon
• Overboard
• Book Club
• Ocean's 8
• BlacKkKlansman
• Crazy Rich Asians

Did I miss any? If I have to see Death of a Nation in order to check off the box for movies about/for the mentally deficient, then you can keep your damn card!

Edited August 17, 2018 by LonePirate

[JB33]

With all this time off I'm seeing a bunch of movies, some probably not necessary to see. Heading in to see ALPHA now. I'm encouraged that it seems to be better than everyone gave it credit for because from the first time I heard about it, whenever that was, i was intrigued. I like these kinds of movies.

[Boxofficerules]

Everyone is waiting for A.X.L, that’s going to explode like Billy Brooks over a white woman.

[Ezen Baklattan]

Also @POTUS please do not use the r-word or any of its variants. 

[Jonwo]

At $30m,  CRA is going to be profitable from just the US alone. 

[filmlover]

Crazy Rich Asians, if it does take #1, should easily do so until The Nun opens. Literally nothing coming out between now and then.

[POTUS 2020]

33 minutes ago, Spagheditary said:

Also @POTUS please do not use the r-word or any of its variants. 

I see used here all the time

[a2k]

THR

Quote

Crazy Rich Asians looks to gross $6.3 million or more on Friday for a projected three-day weekend of $20 million-plus for a five-day debut of $28 million or more. That would be a strong showing for a rom-com considering the ongoing comedy slump at the box office. Meanwhile, now in its second weekend, Warner Bros.' The Meg looks to earn as much as $6 million on Friday for a three-day haul of $18.5 million-$20.5 million

If Meg indeed does 6 on Friday then it will be at CRA's heels, and we are in for a fun weekend.

6

9 (+50%)

6 (-33%)

= 21

[LonePirate]

9 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Crazy Rich Asians, if it does take #1, should easily do so until The Nun opens. Literally nothing coming out between now and then.

Don't discount the filthy puppets next week.

 

 

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

Don't discount the filthy puppets next week.

 

 

I'll be surprised if The Happytime Murders does well at this point tbh. There's literally zero buzz, R-rated puppet movies are a hard sell (Team America did meh in 2004 and that had a lot more going for it), and I doubt McCarthy's audience of middle-aged to older women want to see her in a film like this (plus, is she even doing any promo for it? As far as I can tell, no). It's more likely to do sub-$20M total than see any kind of breakout.

Edited August 17, 2018 by filmlover

[Barnack]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I doubt McCarthy's audience of middle-aged to older women want to see her in a film like this

That a really good point there.

[Jonwo]

24 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Crazy Rich Asians, if it does take #1, should easily do so until The Nun opens. Literally nothing coming out between now and then.

I wouldn't be shocked if CRA if it doesn't open at number 1, gets the top spot the week after. It's really a win win for WB.

[dudalb]

3 hours ago, JB33 said:

With all this time off I'm seeing a bunch of movies, some probably not necessary to see. Heading in to see ALPHA now. I'm encouraged that it seems to be better than everyone gave it credit for because from the first time I heard about it, whenever that was, i was intrigued. I like these kinds of movies.

Alpha looks like it's a good movie tripped up by a horrible marketing campaign. You can't blame people for thinking it's not very good  given the trailers.  Sony strikes again and keeps it reputation as the worst ran of the major studios.