Thanksgiving Weekend Thread: ESTIMATES (Page 40) | Ralph 55.7M (84.5M Total) | Creed II 35.3M (55.8M Total) | The Grinch 30.2M | Grindelwald 29.7M | Robin Hood 9.1M (14.2M Total) | AMAZING BLACK FRIDAY SALE

[dxmatrixdt]

given the Ralph 2 #, it's possible everything overperformed relative to general expectations.... well, my expectations.

[a2k]

5 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Ralph Breaks The Internet reported gross $17,842,432 from 4017 locations. The official numbers will be $18.25-18.5mn Approx.

18.25-18.50 will be 4.80-4.87x it's previews. Front-loading due to being a sequel and annual use of previews is visible.

Coco did 5.73x (13.19/2.3)

Moana did 5.97x (15.52/2.6)

 

3 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald $6,685,730 from 3906 locs. Official numbers will be $6.85mn. Total $81mn 6 days so far.

drop of 1.6% from Tue. Tue and Wed has been worse than JL.

 

Movie  Tue    Wed

FB1   +38%   +18%

JL      +41%   -1%

FB2   +37%   -1.6%

[ThomasNicole]

$ 18.5M for Ralph?

 

Yeah, probably $ 95-100M for the 5 day, huge overperformance

 

[KP1025]

4 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

$ 18.5M for Ralph?

 

Yeah, probably $ 95-100M for the 5 day, huge overperformance

 

 

I knew $65 million 5-Day was way too low when tracking first came out.

Edited November 22, 2018 by KP1025

[el sid]

Nice results for Ralph 2 and Creed II. So a pure 7.8M Wednesday for Creed II (the first one had 4.6M) and ca. 14.5M for Ralph 2.

It's true, from fandango it looked closer between Ralph 2 and Creed II but probably Ralph 2 also had impressive walk ups and maybe the tickets for Creed II were bought for today or the weekend and not Wednesday. Remember that the first Creed had a great hold on Thursday (1.4 Tuesday + 4.6M Wednesday +6.4M Thursday). The sequel could be more frontloaded but who knows.

On Tuesday Ralph 2 and Creed II were neck and neck from fandango ticket sales. But yesterday Creed II sold „only“ around 2/3 of the amount of the tickets of Ralph 2 during the day. In the evening (probably due to the genres of the films) both were doing pretty much the same business (more than 200 tickets in 3 minutes, very good).
Let's see if Creed II can come closer to Ralph 2 today at MT. Yesterday Creed II stayed around 13% most of the day; before the last update it were 27.9% for Ralph 2 and 14.6% for Creed II and now it's 28.1% to 15.9% (for the first time Creed II is in front of The Grinch).

[a2k]

36 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Feel bad to see Fantastic Beasts underperform like that.

Hopefully, Japan doesn't see a big drop like China and South Korea, will be awful if it misses $650mn even. The USA seems certain to be in the range of $150-165mn, that will be less than the weekend of Harry Potter and Deathly Hallows 2.

FB2 dom below DH2 ow (169.2) is possible even with a much better run than JL.

 

81 after Wed

+ 6 Thu (-12.4%) // JL was -19%

+ 30 weekend (-51.7%) // JL was -56%

+ 51 (30*1.70x) more. // JL added only 1.39x more it's 2nd wekend

= 168

 

Edited November 22, 2018 by a2k

[dxmatrixdt]

good OD # for WiR2, but the first 2 days won't get past FB2's first Friday and Saturday 25.5 and 21.3.  

[ThomasNicole]

2 minutes ago, funny skunk said:

good OD # for WiR2, but the first 2 days won't get past FB2's first Friday and Saturday 25.5 and 21.3.  

Why they would?

[a2k]

12 minutes ago, funny skunk said:

good OD # for WiR2, but the first 2 days won't get past FB2's first Friday and Saturday 25.5 and 21.3.  

i don't get the comparison cause thanksgiving wed thu don't have the same potential as a normal fri sat.

wir2 dom could beat fb2 dom by 60-80 (wir2: 230-240, fb2: 160-170) or more after lower 1st 2 days.

[XO21]

Considering FB has 3 movies left that's plain awful.

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

Above FB2 using @Charlie Jatinder's 6.85. This despite WIR2 being direct competition. Grinch will recover from that over the weekend and surely go over FB2's weekend?

[Zakiyyah6]

I don't usually root against movies because that is admittedly silly but Fantastic Beasts 2 potentially under performing does not displease me. 

[dxmatrixdt]

5 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

got Green Book at 93 tickets/day at $9.14 avg. price

 

excel day to day predix here, Green Book could soar past 5 million 3-day if it more then doubles OD.

 

Green Book

1063

93

100

200

200

100

4879170

6733063

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, a2k said:

Above FB2 using @Charlie Jatinder's 6.85. This despite WIR2 being direct competition. Grinch will recover from that over the weekend and surely go over FB2's weekend?

That would be embarrassing for WB.

[a2k]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

That would be embarrassing for WB.

They need the jolt. To first use the mojo of Potter and divert it into an always flimsy looking FB franchise, and then announce 5 of them was absurd. Reminds me of ASM1's bo making everyone happy and ASM2 kicking Sony in the backside. But if Sony can comeback from that with Venom and Spider-verse, surely WB will do right by the Potter goldmine soon.

[Valonqar]

FB2 blew it. They had a chance to improve on meh characters thanks to goodwill from FB but no. They had to add 3000 new characters that didn't add up to the whole all that much, make a movie that's one big set up for the future movies rather than an actual movie, and have the most convoluted story since POTC:AWE (which I love due to creativity, Zimmer's magnificent score and compelling characters but have to admit story was convoluted af with 1000 sub plots). SO I don't feel sorry either. They wasted 200M. 

Edited November 22, 2018 by Valonqar

[RealLyre]

7 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

I don't usually root against movies because that is admittedly silly but Fantastic Beasts 2 potentially under performing does not displease me. 

it's not even potentially anymore IT IS underperforming, it will struggle to beat DH2 opening weekend.

 

[WrathOfHan]

17 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

Yikes. Will this even do 4M for the 3 day?