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Best Picture Predictions - 2019

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37 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

does the film's production country affect anything? Inglourious Basterds got a golden globe best film in drama instead of foreign 

 

I know Angelina Jolie's In the Land of Milk and Honey was nominated for foreign at the Globes despite being a United States production.

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46 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

does the film's production country affect anything? Inglourious Basterds got a golden globe best film in drama instead of foreign 

Nope. There's no affect. I remember The Diving Bell and the Butterfly getting nominated and it was produced by Kathleen Kennedy's company. Letters from Iwo Jima was produced by DreamWorks and Amblin and also got nominated.

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The former Foreign Language Film category at the Oscars is tied to the country that a movie is from, which is why American movies don't compete in it. At the Globes, it's just about what percentage of the dialogue is not in English, even if the movie is American in origin. At the Globes, a Foreign Film can't compete in Drama, Animated can't also be in Comedy, etc., there's no "double dipping" like at the Oscars, where a movie can be eligible for Best Animated/Documentary/Foreign Film and Best Picture, too. It looks like the team pushing The Farewell feels the Best Foreign Film category is its likeliest chance for a film nomination at the Globes (it will probably lose to Parasite, but is much closer to a win there than in Drama or Comedy). 

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Best Picture

Marriage Story

The Irishman

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Jojo Rabbit

Parasite

Joker

Little Women

1917

**

The Farewell

Bombshell

────────

Best Director

Martin Scorsese - The Irishman

Sam Mendes - 1917

Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Bong Joon-ho – Parasite

Noah Baumbach - Marriage Story

**

Greta Gerwig – Little Women

Todd Phillips - Joker

────────

Actor

Joaquin Phoenix - Joker

Adam Driver - Marriage Story

Leo DiCaprio - OUATIH

Antonio Banderas - Pain & Glory

Robert De Niro - The Irishman

**

Jonathan Pryce - The Two Popes

────────

Actress

Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story

Renée Zellweger - Judy

Saoirse Ronan - Little Women

Awkwafina - The Farewell

Charlize Theron - Bombshell

**

Cynthia Erivo - Harriet

────────

Supporting Actor

Brad Pitt - OUATIH

Al Pacino - The Irishman

Tom Hanks - A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Joe Pesci - The Irishman

John Lithgow - Bombshell

**

Anthony Hopkins - The Two Popes

────────

Supporting Actress

Laura Dern - Marriage Story

Florence Pugh - Little Women

Margot Robbie - OUATIH or Bombshell

Jennifer Lopez - Hustlers

Zhao Shuzhen - The Farewell

**

Annette Benning - The Report

────────

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Irishman

Jojo Rabbit

Little Women

Joker

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

**

Two Popes

────────

Best Original Screenplay

Marriage Story

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

The Farewell

Parasite

Knives Out

**

Richard Jewell

────────

Best Animated Feature

Frozen II

Toy Story 4

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

Weathering With You

Klaus

**

Missing Link

Mirai

────────

Best International Feature Film

Parasite (South Korea)

Pain and Glory (Spain)

Les Miserables (France)

Monos (Colombia)

Atlantics (Senegal)

────────

Best Cinematography

1917

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

The Irishman

Joker

Parasite

**

Waves

────────

Best Film Editing

The Irishman

Jojo Rabbit

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Marriage Story

Joker

**

1917

────────

Best Costume Design

Little Women

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

The Irishman

Jojo Rabbit

Portrait of a Lady on Fire

**

Downtown Abbey

────────

Best Production Design

1917

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Little Women

Jojo Rabbit

The Irishman

**

Joker

────────

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Bombshell

Little Women

The Irishman

Judy

Joker

**

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

────────

Best Sound Editing

1917

Ford v. Ferrari

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Ad Astra

Avengers Endgame

**

The Lighthouse

────────

Best Sound Mixing

1917

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Ford v. Ferrari

Ad Astra

Avengers Endgame

**

The Lighthouse

────────

Best Visual Effects

The Irishman

Avengers: Endgame

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

The Lion King

The Aeronauts

**

Ad Astra

────────

Best Original Score

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Jojo Rabbit

Little Women

Marriage Story

Joker

**

Waves

────────

Best Original Song

Frozen II – Into the Unknown

Toy Story 4 – The Ballad of the Lonesome Cowboy

Motherless Brooklyn – Daily Battles

Harriet - Stand Up

Cats - Untitled Taylor Swift and Andrew Lloyd Webber song

**

Lion King - Spirited

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november update... in main categories.

 

Picture:

1. Parasite

2. Jojo Rabbit

3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

4. Marriage Story

5. The Irishman

6. Little Women

7. Joker

8. 1917

9. The Farewell

 

Director:

1. Bong Joon ho, Parasite

2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

3. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman

4. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story

5. Sam Mendes, 1917

 

Actor:

1. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

2. Adam Driver, Marriage Story

3. Antonio Banderas, Pain & Glory

4. Robert De Niro, The Irishman

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

 

Actress:

1. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story

2. Renee Zellweger, Judy

3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell

4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women

5. Awkwafina, The Farewell

 

Supp. Actor:

1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

2. Al Pacino, The Irishman

3. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

4. Joe Pesci, The Irishman

5. Song Kang ho, Parasite

 

Supp. Actress:

1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story

2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers

3. Florence Pugh, Little Women

4. Margot Robbie, Bombshell

5. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit

 

Original Screenplay:

1. Parasite

2. Marriage Story

3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

4. The Farewell

5. Pain & Glory

 

Adapted Screenplay:

1. Jojo Rabbit

2. Little Women

3. The Irishman

4. The Two Popes

5. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

 

Animation:

1. Toy Story 4

2. Frozen 2

3. Weathering with You

4. I Lost My Body

5. How To Train Your Dragon 3

 

International: 

1. Parasite

2. Pain and Glory

3. Les Miserables

4. Atlantics

5. Invisible Life

 

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16 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

hmm, interesting choice for original screenplay. I heard most of the praise was for the acting tho (and Dern's monologue). 

I don't know if Tarantino takes #3 home, and Parasite might have some bias against it due to it being a foreign film. I could be wrong on both counts though

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Baumbach's a great writer (with an almost 25-year career, most of which he's gone unappreciated by awards bodies; both will work in his favor this time) and this seems like a case where strong performances, not being biopic impersonations or other sorts of look-at-me "transformations", must mean equally strong material. I think he's pretty comfortably #1.

 

Parasite is surely too cool to win Best Picture.

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23 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

parasite wins because all of the top options don't seem like typical choices there's a decent arugment against any of them and everyone likes parasite. it plays to all the brows from low to high.

This make me wonder how Amelie and Pan Labyrinth was snubbed for BP nomination despite doing 30m+ here domestically. I guess that has something to do with 5 slots nominees. 

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On 11/4/2019 at 5:35 PM, CoolioD1 said:

parasite wins because all of the top options don't seem like typical choices there's a decent arugment against any of them and everyone likes parasite. it plays to all the brows from low to high.

 

I wanna believe that it's gonna be the Spotlight/Moonlight in this race. But I feel there will be a decent chunk of the old academy that would rank this low just because it's too genre-y or not "important" enough. Haven't seen the movie yet just speculating based on Bong's other films.

 

 

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27 minutes ago, Joel M said:

 

I wanna believe that it's gonna be the Spotlight/Moonlight in this race. But I feel there will be a decent chunk of the old academy that would rank this low just because it's too genre-y or not "important" enough. Haven't seen the movie yet just speculating based on Bong's other films.

 

 

parasite win will be so monumental for South korean as their film never even got nominated for even best foreign film but when they do, they win best picture. 

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Time for a full set of new predictions:


 

Spoiler

 

Picture:

 

1. Parasite

2. The Irishman

3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

4. Jojo Rabbit

5. Marriage Story

6. Joker

7. Little Women

8. 1917

------------------------------

9. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

10. Ford v. Ferrari

Alt: Bombshell

 

Director:

 

1. Bong Joon-ho, Parasite

2. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman

3. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit

4. Sam Mendes, 1917

5. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Alt: Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story

 

Actor:

 

1. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

2. Adam Driver, Marriage Story

3. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

5. Robert De Niro, The Irishman

Alt: Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems

 

Actress:

 

1. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story

2. Renee Zellweger, Judy

3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell

4. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet

5. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women

Alt: Awkwafina, The Farewell

 

Supporting Actor:

 

1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

2. Al Pacino, The Irishman

3. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse

4. Joe Pesci, The Irishman

5. Song Kang-ho, Parasite

Alt: Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

 

Supporting Actress:

 

1. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers

2. Laura Dern, Marriage Story

3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell

4. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit

5. Florence Pugh, Little Women

Alt: Nicole Kidman, Bombshell

 

Original Screenplay:

 

1. Parasite

2. Marriage Story

3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

4. Ford v. Ferrari

5. Bombshell
Alt: Knives Out

 

Adapted Screenplay:

 

1. The Irishman

2. Jojo Rabbit

3. Joker

4. Little Women

5. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Alt: Hustlers

 

International Film:

 

1. Parasite

2. Pain and Glory

3. Les Miserables

4. Honeyland

5. Weathering with You

Alt: Monos

 

Animated:

 

1. Frozen II

2. Toy Story 4

3. Weathering with You

4. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

5. I Lost My Body

Alt: Missing Link

 

Documentary:

 

1. Apollo 11

2. Honeyland

3. One Child Nation

4. For Sama

5. Toni Morrison: The Pieces I Am

Alt: The Biggest Little Farm

 

Cinematography:

 

1. 1917

2. The Irishman

3. The Lighthouse

4. Joker

5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Alt: Jojo Rabbit

 

Editing:

 

1. The Irishman

2. Parasite

3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

4. Jojo Rabbit

5. 1917

Alt: Marriage Story

 

Production Design:

 

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

2. Parasite

3. Little Women

4. Jojo Rabbit

5. The Irishman

Alt: Downton Abbey

 

Costume Design:

 

1. Little Women

2. Downton Abbey

3. Jojo Rabbit

4. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Alt: Rocketman

 

Makeup: 

 

1. Bombshell

2. Joker

3. The Irishman

Alt: The Lighthouse

 

Score:

 

1. Little Women

2. Joker

3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

4. Marriage Story

5. Jojo Rabbit

Alt: Us

 

Song:

 

1. Into the Unknown, Frozen II

2. Stand Up, Harriet

3. Beautiful Ghosts, Cats

4. Daily Battles, Motherless Brooklyn

5. I'm Gonna Love Me Again, Rocketman

Alt: I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away, Toy Story 4

 

Visual Effects:

 

1. The Irishman

2. The Lion King

3. 1917

4. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

5. Ad Astra

Alt: Gemini Man

 

Sound Editing:

 

1. 1917

2. Ford v. Ferrari

3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

4. Joker

5. Parasite

Alt: Ad Astra

 

Sound Mixing:

 

1. 1917

2. Ford v. Ferrari

3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

4. Cats

5. Rocketman

Alt: Joker

 

 

 

Nomination counts:

 

11:

The Irishman (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor x2, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Makeup, Visual Effects)

 

9:

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Costume Design)

 

8:

Parasite (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, International Film, Editing, Production Design, Sound Editing)

 

7:

1917 (Picture, Director, Cinematography, Editing, Visual Effects, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)

Jojo Rabbit (Picture, Director, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Costume Design, Score)

Joker (Picture, Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Makeup, Score, Sound Editing)

 

6:

Little Women (Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Production Design, Costume Design)

Marriage Story (Picture, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Score)

 

4:

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Score, Visual Effects, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)

 

3:

Bombshell (Actress, Supporting Actress, Makeup)

Ford v. Ferrari (Original Screenplay, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)

 

2:

Cats (Song, Sound Mixing)

Frozen II (Animated, Song)

Harriet (Actress, Song)

Honeyland (International Film, Documentary)

The Lighthouse (Supporting Actor, Cinematography)

Pain and Glory (Actor, International Film)

Rocketman (Song, Sound Mixing)

Weathering with You (International Film, Animated)

 

I'm slowly starting to think the major director snub will be Tarantino. I still have him in (and Hollywood getting two wins), but I feel like Baumbach or Phillips will have more passionate votes. The narrative to give Tarantino a directing win this year has passed imo.

I've dropped The Farewell from everything too. I think it's lost too much momentum, and Little Women and Bombshell are emerging in the acting categories.

There's always been discussion about one of the three Sony movies not making it, and Neighborhood is the likely casualty. Maybe my stance on it will change after it releases, but I'm not feeling much passion for it.

Edited by WrathOfHan
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56 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Time for a full set of new predictions:


 

  Reveal hidden contents

1917 (Editing)

What editing

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Fully ready for Jojo to win best picture and Mendes best director tbh. Y'all feel free to expect the Oscars to do better but after the last couple years especially I can't. Maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised. Likewise with Phoenix in best actor. (Still am on the Pacino train, at least, and original screenplay will be hard to mess up.)

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1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Yeah, The Farewell seems to have lost most of its momentum and will probably need a miracle to get it back unfortunately. I can see it being a lone Screenplay nominee at this point.

I'm not sure about that. It will end up being A24's biggest hit of the year and they are probably pushing it harder than any of their other films. Actress and Supporting Actress seem weak enough for Awkwafina and Shuzhen to get in.

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