stripe Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 Nobody, and I mean NOBODY, thught American Sniper would gross much more than 100M DOM just a few days before its opening. Obviously, it's almost impossible a storm like that happens again with 1917, but... 1/ It's a war movie, and sometimes it's a genre that exceeds expectations if... 2/ it gets Oscars heat, 3/ it has great release date (same as American Sniper), 4/ and it's from an auteur very well respected Bonus point: the plot looks quite intense and easy to relate with It all depends on WOM once Christmas comes. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 17 minutes ago, stripe said: Nobody, and I mean NOBODY, thught American Sniper would gross much more than 100M DOM just a few days before its opening. Obviously, it's almost impossible a storm like that happens again with 1917, but... 1/ It's a war movie, and sometimes it's a genre that exceeds expectations if... 2/ it gets Oscars heat, 3/ it has great release date (same as American Sniper), 4/ and it's from an auteur very well respected Bonus point: the plot looks quite intense and easy to relate with It all depends on WOM once Christmas comes. It was a summer release but Dunkirk (a more comparable title than American Sniper) topped out at $188M with Nolan's name, a really aggressive marketing campaign, and promise of big screen spectacle. Depends on budget but if 1917 were to make half of that I imagine it would be a major win. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonwo Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 WWI movies never do as well as WWII movies for some reason, the only exception is Wonder Woman and that's a superhero film Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TMP Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 idk if Joker makes it anymore tbh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 14 minutes ago, TMP said: idk if Joker makes it anymore tbh Same. Won't declare it dead yet or anything but definitely feeling that the Gone Girl comparison (controversial first weekend of October box office hit that ends up completely shut out besides an acting nom) might end up being accurate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 16 minutes ago, TMP said: idk if Joker makes it anymore tbh Need to see how it perform in the critics circuit in the year end. Also, the backlash kicked off very early is a good thing to Joker, meaning people will soon or later get used to the backlash and start to ignore them or even annoyed by backlash, which in trun trigger passionate support. See Green Book. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 19 minutes ago, TMP said: idk if Joker makes it anymore tbh Probably won't get critics support but would be surprised if it doesn't get support from other precursors like the HFPA and the guilds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TMP Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 Just now, titanic2187 said: Need to see how it perform in the critics circuit in the year end. Also, the backlash kicked off very early is a good thing to Joker, meaning people will soon or later get used to the backlash and start to ignore them or even annoyed by backlash, which in trun trigger passionate support. See Green Book. People calling this movie dangerous will hurt its chances I think Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 1 hour ago, TMP said: People calling this movie dangerous will hurt its chances I think i don't think so. there's not going to be any actual joker inspired murders like some critics want are worried about. without that the nontroversy will probably fade in the next couple weeks. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM! Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 2 hours ago, filmlover said: Same. Won't declare it dead yet or anything but definitely feeling that the Gone Girl comparison (controversial first weekend of October box office hit that ends up completely shut out besides an acting nom) might end up being accurate. That might happen, but I still expect the original score by Hildur Guðnadóttir to remain in serious contention for a nomination. Not only has the score been highlighted by many Oscar prognosticators, but it'd be an opportunity for the Academy to nominate a woman again. She'd be the seventh woman ever nominated in the cateogry and the first since Mica Levi was nominated for Jackie. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 (edited) 5 minutes ago, SLAM! said: That might happen, but I still expect the original score by Hildur Guðnadóttir to remain in serious contention for a nomination. Not only has the score been highlighted by many Oscar prognosticators, but it'd be an opportunity for the Academy to nominate a woman again. She'd be the seventh woman ever nominated in the cateogry and the first since Mica Levi was nominated for Jackie. And the score is actually pretty damn good. Wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being the best part of the movie outside of Phoenix's performance. Edited October 2, 2019 by lorddemaxus 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RealLyre Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 more confident in Joker getting a picture nomination after seeing it, it's an important film. the violence controversy is so overblown that it would be ridiculous if it takes it out from awards season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RealLyre Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 4 hours ago, SLAM! said: That might happen, but I still expect the original score by Hildur Guðnadóttir to remain in serious contention for a nomination. Not only has the score been highlighted by many Oscar prognosticators, but it'd be an opportunity for the Academy to nominate a woman again. She'd be the seventh woman ever nominated in the cateogry and the first since Mica Levi was nominated for Jackie. her music elevated majority of the scenes, and after her Emmy win for Chernobyl I think she has a good shot with an Oscar nomination. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 I'm not dropping Joker down in my predicts for a bit after Green Book happened. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RealLyre Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 Disney's not pushing RDJ for a best actor (or supp) for EG yet 🤔, w/e they still have a shot at a picture nomination. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 Just now, RealLyre said: Disney's not pushing RDJ for a best actor (or supp) for EG yet 🤔 They know it would be a waste to even try. Endgame's best shot at anything above the line this whole season is possibly a SAG Ensemble nom given how utterly massive the cast is but even then they'll more likely go for something more accustomed to their tastes like the Downton Abbey movie or something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 After last year Oscar which prove that AMPAS member and award bodies can really ignore controversy and backlash against a film if they like the film, not only one but two controversial films they can recognize. Joker will be another example but from what shown so far, it is not looking great, especially you have a very talkactive director that isn't helping at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 They don't need Director nom to lock Phoenix win. Just Picture and Actor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 11 hours ago, filmlover said: They know it would be a waste to even try. Endgame's best shot at anything above the line this whole season is possibly a SAG Ensemble nom given how utterly massive the cast is but even then they'll more likely go for something more accustomed to their tastes like the Downton Abbey movie or something. I'm just gonna say I will riot HARD if Knives Out isn't up for the SAG award. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CloneWars Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 After seeing Joker, I feel it is a lock now for pic. The current controversy will fade by the time awards consideration matters. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
