Best Picture Predictions - 2019

[RealLyre]

On 10/2/2019 at 8:00 PM, TMP said:

idk if Joker makes it anymore tbh

the last time a best actor win that didn't get a picture nom was Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart in 2009. Phoenix will def get support from the globes (he's a previous globe winner and has 5 nominations) he's the popular frontrunner as of now. his performance is universally loved by audiences (except some critics ) in a showy transformative role about a pop culture icon, and is in a box office hit (Bohemian Rhapsody).  now of course the best performance of the year doesn't always guarantee an Oscar and nothing is locked pre-globes but if Phoenix hopes to win this race, Joker will find its way into a picture nom. 

[lorddemaxus]

Joker will get a lot of support from the HFPA the same way Rhapsody did last year. Guilds should also like it (the industry seems to be liking the movie more than critics). And considering that its doing well on critics choice, critics choice award noms seem likely too. Even without critics support, I think it will have enough support from the industry to do well in the oscar race.

[Halba]

my picks in order

 

1. 1917. WWI done right for the first time in modern times. Looks like dunkirk but this time coming during awards season.

 

and then the rest imho

 

2. Marriage story. The RT ave rating is over 9 and it looks like an amazing film.

3. The Irishman. The RT ave rating is just under 9

4. Parasite - korean film over 9 RT ave rating.

5. The Farewell 8.58 RT ave rating

6.  once upon a time in hollywood. 7.81 ave rating but over 500 reviews.

7. Jojo Rabbit - WWII Satire flick from Watiti. 7.42 ave rating decent with 78% likely certified fresh. because of its setting - WWII/Hitler parody it definitely gets in there.

8. Just mercy - B jordan and foxx in Law drama. think A Time to kill but done way better. 85% RT.

 

This above 8 will be the likely nominations.

 

Joker-  looks simply terrible.

 

 

Edited October 7, 2019 by Halba

[The Panda]

13 minutes ago, Halba said:

my picks in order

 

1. 1917. WWI done right for the first time in modern times. Looks like dunkirk but this time coming during awards season.

 

and then the rest imho

 

2. Marriage story. The RT ave rating is over 9 and it looks like an amazing film.

3. The Irishman. The RT ave rating is just under 9

4. Parasite - korean film over 9 RT ave rating.

5. The Farewell 8.58 RT ave rating

6.  once upon a time in hollywood. 7.81 ave rating but over 500 reviews.

7. Jojo Rabbit - WWII Satire flick from Watiti. 7.42 ave rating decent with 78% likely certified fresh. because of its setting - WWII/Hitler parody it definitely gets in there.

8. Just mercy - B jordan and foxx in Law drama. think A Time to kill but done way better. 85% RT.

 

This above 8 will be the likely nominations.

 

Joker-  looks simply terrible.

 

 

Irishman should be number 1 for the runtime alone, right?

[titanic2187]

1 hour ago, Halba said:

my picks in order

 

1. 1917. WWI done right for the first time in modern times. Looks like dunkirk but this time coming during awards season.

 

and then the rest imho

 

2. Marriage story. The RT ave rating is over 9 and it looks like an amazing film.

3. The Irishman. The RT ave rating is just under 9

4. Parasite - korean film over 9 RT ave rating.

5. The Farewell 8.58 RT ave rating

6.  once upon a time in hollywood. 7.81 ave rating but over 500 reviews.

7. Jojo Rabbit - WWII Satire flick from Watiti. 7.42 ave rating decent with 78% likely certified fresh. because of its setting - WWII/Hitler parody it definitely gets in there.

8. Just mercy - B jordan and foxx in Law drama. think A Time to kill but done way better. 85% RT.

 

This above 8 will be the likely nominations.

 

Joker-  looks simply terrible.

 

 

This is Oscar , not RT awards.

 

Art is subjective, not some final exam or racing sports, 

 

Oscar founded back in 1927, in what hell they should listen to critics who many of them , doesn't even know how to operate a camera? 

[Chucky]

On 10/2/2019 at 5:24 PM, Jonwo said:

WWI movies never do as well as WWII movies for some reason, the only exception is Wonder Woman and that's a superhero film

Because WW2 was just the better war overall. My favourite of the 2 wars, it had everything, bigger tanks, better planes, holocaust and nukes. Had a good villain too

Edited October 7, 2019 by Chucky

[TMP]

2 hours ago, Halba said:

8. Just mercy - B jordan and foxx in Law drama. think A Time to kill but done way better. 85% RT.

 

Not happening

[Joel M]

 

ICON!

[RealLyre]

Bong's right. The Oscars are biased to American films as much as the BAFTAS are biased to British films.

[Valonqar]

Bong is right. They are American awards so I don't get demands for foreign movie winning best Picture when there's Foreign category for them. Nobody is asking for Bollywood awards to reward Hollywood movies or Chinese movies, etc. same goes for other local awards. festivals are places were movies from different countries compete as equals but Oscars are American and they awarded a lot of people who aren't Americans. What else they want?

[Barnack]

The fact that there is a foreign category make it true / confirm it, but at the same time they have reached for a lot of intl voters and like to claim they have a giant world audience (even if it is false and that in reality it is only a tv events in the America's timezone), American call their baseball winning team in a local league the World Champion without letting non MLB team compete in it, they are strange like that, playing in that line.

 

14 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

same goes for other local awards.

Other local awards have it in their rules that the movie must be a local one to compete, not the Oscar, they want the illusion to award the best movie of the year.

 

Like you said until recently filmmaker from around the world could rack nomination working from their country (Fellini got 9 over the year's, Bergman 6, Truffaut 3), a little French movie like Le Balloon Rouge, could win one. They like to claim to be a global event (even if in reality it is only watched in the US-Canada-Mexico and a bit in the south america's where the time zone make it ok to do so) and let them compete in theory has long has they release in theater.

 

I feel like they are not far from a nice balance, it is paid by Hollywood to promote itself and they let some undeniable work get in from time to time, it could be a little bit more specially in the 8-10 BP pick and so many filler anyway, maybe a Memory of a Murder type to get in, but an award ceremony that would really try to cover all the world output with so many category would get overwhelm, 

[Jonwo]

I wouldn't surprised if Richard Jewell ends up being a contender in the awards season.

[CoolioD1]

the voting body are getting more international. i'd bet on a foreign language film winning best picture within the next ten years. got very close last year.

[filmlover]

18 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I wouldn't surprised if Richard Jewell ends up being a contender in the awards season.

It's sure to show up on NBR given their love for Eastwood/WB.

[CoolioD1]

the weirdest thing about clint eastwood's awards history is how much the Japanese academy loves him. He's won their foreign language film award six times. plus a bunch of other nominations for stuff like Jersey Boys and Invictus

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Academy_Film_Prize_for_Outstanding_Foreign_Language_Film

[RealLyre]

is it just me or is Picture looking predominantly white this year? out of the 10 frontrunners on GoldDerby the only films with minorities cast are Parasite & The Farewell (Taika is also Jewish) and even then those aren't sure noms, especially the Farewell. 

 

compared to last year where we had Roma,Black Panther,BlacKkKlansman, Spider-Verse and Green Book (Beale Street too but that missed out on picture iirc) and previous years with Get Out & Moonlight,Lion,Fences,Selma and Hidden Figures etc. 

 

I think some films with lower buzz could make a surprise appearance like 

Us,Dolemite Is My Name,Waves or even Just Mercy & Harriet.

 

 

 

 

[filmlover]

41 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

is it just me or is Picture looking predominantly white this year? out of the 10 frontrunners on GoldDerby the only films with minorities cast are Parasite & The Farewell (Taika is also Jewish) and even then those aren't sure noms, especially the Farewell. 

 

compared to last year where we had Roma,Black Panther,BlacKkKlansman, Spider-Verse and Green Book (Beale Street too but that missed out on picture iirc) and previous years with Get Out & Moonlight,Lion,Fences,Selma and Hidden Figures etc. 

 

I think some films with lower buzz could make a surprise appearance like 

Us,Dolemite Is My Name,Waves or even Just Mercy & Harriet.

 

 

 

 

Honestly none of those look to advance to the end. Universal would have to mount one heck of a campaign to revive Us from the dead (its buzz has been completely gone for 5-6 months) and none of the others have made the breakthrough necessary.

[SLAM!]

1 hour ago, RealLyre said:

is it just me or is Picture looking predominantly white this year? out of the 10 frontrunners on GoldDerby the only films with minorities cast are Parasite & The Farewell (Taika is also Jewish) and even then those aren't sure noms, especially the Farewell. 

 

compared to last year where we had Roma,Black Panther,BlacKkKlansman, Spider-Verse and Green Book (Beale Street too but that missed out on picture iirc) and previous years with Get Out & Moonlight,Lion,Fences,Selma and Hidden Figures etc. 

 

I think some films with lower buzz could make a surprise appearance like 

Us,Dolemite Is My Name,Waves or even Just Mercy & Harriet.

 

 

 

 

 

52 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Honestly none of those look to advance to the end. Universal would have to mount one heck of a campaign to revive Us from the dead (its buzz has been completely gone for 5-6 months) and none of the others have made the breakthrough necessary.

 

I wouldn't dismiss Queen & Slim just yet.

Edited October 9, 2019 by SLAM!

[filmlover]

19 minutes ago, SLAM! said:

 

 

I wouldn't dismiss Queen & Slim just yet.

Maybe but I'm getting the sense the best case scenario it ends up as another The Hate U Give (a great movie that everyone ignores).

[lorddemaxus]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Maybe but I'm getting the sense the best case scenario it ends up as another The Hate U Give (a great movie that everyone ignores).

Last year was pretty great for African American cinema though where we got a lot of really good movies from African Americans and about them. Better films like Beale Street, Blindspotting, and Widows weren't competing for any major awards because of this (the African American aspect is a part of the voting process). I like The Hate U Give but it was one of the more generic movies. Queen and Slim looks more unique and is releasing in a year where doesn't have to compete against so many other African American focused films. It's also Waithe's feature film directorial debut which could help if its great.