Weekend Thread (1/25-1/27): Weekend Estimates: Glass 19M l Upside 12.2M l Aquaman 7.3M l Kid WWB King 7.2M l Spider-Verse: 5.5M l Green Book 5.2M l Serenity 4.8M

[filmlover]

7 minutes ago, kitik said:

What the hell happened to the box office? I guess this is the first January in a while with no uber-giant holdovers from December.

That and the early year options are even weaker than usual this year.

[grim22]

14 minutes ago, kitik said:

What the hell happened to the box office? I guess this is the first January in a while with no uber-giant holdovers from December.

Nothing backed up Aquaman in December, and the pre-holiday movies were pretty weak as well. Add to that the awards movies not doing well and there being no biggish movies in January thanks to Glass hugely underperforming and we have a perfect recipe for the death of the box office. 

[kitik]

Utterly ridiculous. I just took a look and Lego has Thursday showtimes starting at 4:00pm!

 

By this summer, when school is out of session, there will be preview Thursday showtimes starting before 4. Get ready for your noon Thursday preview of The Lion King. Don't worry, it will still count as part of Friday numbers though. Because counting it as Thursday would be silly.

[filmlover]

$200M+ opening honestly doesn't even sound that insane for Captain Marvel considering the state the box office will be in by then. As is I'm expecting it to match Beauty and the Beast's opening two years ago.

[Cooper Legion]

Don’t know if I really buy the pent up demand theory in the first place. But to whatever degree it’s real, Captain Marvel should be the main beneficiary.

[Ryan Reynolds]

13 minutes ago, filmlover said:

$200M+ opening honestly doesn't even sound that insane for Captain Marvel considering the state the box office will be in by then. As is I'm expecting it to match Beauty and the Beast's opening two years ago.

Black Panther barely did 200m on OW with church groups going and also being a Holiday weekend with way more buzz

[aabattery]

21 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Black Panther barely did 200m on OW with church groups going and also being a Holiday weekend with way more buzz

 

I don't think it's a big stretch to imagine that BP's 3-day might have been a bit higher if it was on a traditional 3-day weekend without a holiday Monday to soak up the extra demand.

 

edit: just to be clear, I'm not on the Captain Marvel = 200m OW train at this point. Ragnarok numbers sound about right to me, but it'll probably have better legs.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Black Panther barely did 200m on OW with church groups going and also being a Holiday weekend with way more buzz

Not sure we're how we're measuring buzz here. It's unquestionably the movie with by far the loudest buzz of any that's opening in the first quarter of 2019.

[John Marston]

no suprise Glass is dropping hard. It was boring and the ending was laughable. A big disappointment 

[Zakiyyah6]

Wow people are going to be really disappointed if Captain Marvel doesn't do 700 million domestic. I can already see the 250mil opening weekend predictions coming. I guess such expectations aren't a bad problem for Disney to have. 

Edited January 27, 2019 by Zakiyyah6

[Cooper Legion]

3 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Wow people are going to be really disappointed if Captain Marvel doesn't do 700 million domestic. I can already see the 250mil opening weekend predictions coming. I guess such expectations aren't a bad problem for Disney to have. 

Come now, no one will really have such silly expectations. It’s only if it falls below The Avengers DOM that I’ll be disappointed 

[Ryan Reynolds]

18 minutes ago, aabattery said:

 

I don't think it's a big stretch to imagine that BP's 3-day might have been a bit higher if it was on a traditional 3-day weekend without a holiday Monday to soak up the extra demand.

i don't see how Captain Marvel will be a cultural event, but End Game hype could push it to 175m ow range

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Wow people are going to be really disappointed if Captain Marvel doesn't do 700 million domestic. I can already see the 250mil opening weekend predictions coming. I guess such expectations aren't a bad problem for Disney to have. 

lol no one but the looniest of fans thinks it's going that high (and even then...).

[DAJK]

You know, this is a pretty disappointing start to a year that I had pegged as "the next 2015". By now already, 2015 had a Liam Neeson movie open to nearly 40M and a movie have a 100M+ MLK opening plus a 60M+ second weekend. 

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

7 hours ago, BoxOfficeChica said:

I love how DDL's win for Lincoln gets lumped in as biopic mimicry, what was he copying exactly, statues? It's not like he could just Youtube clips of Honest Abe for research. And McConaugheyheyhey wasn't playing a well known person, it was more about the weight loss transformation and playing someone who suffered.

McConaughey wasn't included in the list, I left him out for the same reason as Jeff Bridges: there is enough departure/fictionalisation from the original person there and, as you say, that wasn't a well known person with a lot of source material.

 

As for DDL: Ultimately there is a pile of Lincoln iconography, sources, descriptions, images and other people's performances to go from. There is no primary footage but there's still a pattern of behaviour and a detailed character shape in the public consciousness. Is it one of the lesser offenders on the list? Sure. I'd also concede it's also one of the better performances on the list, worthy at least of nomination (alongside Emma Thomson as PL Travers) in a way that I wouldn't grant to any of the others. But I would keep it there because quite simply it's still not operating anywhere near the level of difficulty as Phoenix was in The Master.

 

The list in full by the way: Adrian Brody as Wladislaw Szpillman, Jamie Foxx as Ray Charles, Philip Seymour Hoffman as Truman Capote, Forest Whitaker as Idi Amin, Sean Penn as Harvey Milk, Colin Firth as George VI, DDL as Lincoln, Eddie Redmayne as Stephen Hawking, Gary Oldman as Churchill, Malik or Bale this year (99% guaranteed at this point), Julia Roberts as Erin Brockovich, Nicole Kidman as Virginia Woolf, Charlize Theron as Aileen Wournos, Reese Witherspoon as Julie Carter Cash, Helen Mirren as Elizabeth II, Marion Cotillard as Edith Piaf, Sandra Bullock as LeAnne Tuohy and Meryl Streep as Margaret Thatcher.  And again, that's just Actor and Actress since 2000, not Supporting, where there are a bunch more. 

 

As for the weekend box office: Green Book and The Favourite seem to have done OK with their expansions. For a movie like The Favourite to make over 10m is pretty great, so over 25m is special. Green Book really looks set for a potential momentum win now, it's showing all the right patterns. Spiderverse still has dem legs and it will be interesting to see what an Oscar win might push it to: WW box office still isn't amazing for it so the additions that it can get to the Dom seem pretty important. Escape Room has played a blinder.  

 

 

[lorddemaxus]

Sad that The King Who Would Be King is flopping. I heard that it is really good to great from most people I have spoken to and that it is better than 90% of kids movies. I hope it has decent legs.

[AniNate]

January always looked pretty rough but the next few months should hopefully get us back on track

[a2k]

Thu previews should start 1 second after 23:59:59 Wed night. It's only fair.

[MrGlass2]

Good numbers for holdovers. Glass will get $100M and Dragon Ball will demolish its original target, $30M (Resurrection 'F' made $8M).

[JB33]

8 hours ago, kitik said:

 

 

What the hell happened to the box office? I guess this is the first January in a while with no uber-giant holdovers from December.

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah, there's definitely the chance for something to catch on. The worse everything else does, the better something will do. The only question is what that something is. Lego? Alita? Captain Marvel? Are people waiting for Avengers?

 

It's simple. The offerings just aren't great. That and the one "event" of January  - GLASS - has disappointed critically, slowing all momentum and hype.