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This is Not A Swan Song: Dark Phoenix Under Alita: Battle Angel DOM and WW

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This year, we see have the last X-Men movie before Disney/Marvel gets their grubby paws on it, and I think it’s going to underperform, so much so, Alita will outgross it and here’s why.

 

1.) Franchise Fatigue

People are arguably tired of the X-Men at this point and Logan in a way served as a finale for the X-Men series, not to mention tepid response from Apocalypse and as we’ve seen from the past years, franchise fatigue always catches up.

 

2.) Poor Buzz 

We have @ViewerAnon who has seen a cut and has said not good things, the trailers haven’t caught fire online and social media seems muted. Yes, superhero movies are the biggest right now but audiences will likely save for Far From Home over this.

 

3.) Competition 

Not only does it face Pets 2 on OW who will likely make a $90M-$100M OW taking away families, Godzilla and Aladdin will still be drawing in crowds and Endgame and Pikachu may drain wallets for everyone else. To top it off it faces Men In Black: International, on its second weekend, and although not direct Toy Story 4 on it’s third weekend which will draw in some of the older audience.

 

So are we IN or OUT?

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Despite the decent looking new trailer I do not really root for this one. 

 

But under "Alita" DOM and WW?

 

It depends on how the late legs of "Alita" turn out but even if she somehow manages to get to 100 mil. DP should be over that mark.

 

So I am OUT for dom.

 

WW is another topic. That could become a tough ride but I am also OUT. Even the abysmal "Apocalypse" managed to collect 543 mil. and with "Alita" finishing around 430 mil I don't see that DP drops so much from its predecessor.

 

US: 120 mil.

China: 130 mil.

 

That would only require another 180 mil. from the rest of the world. Should be doable.

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Out. Even if DP underperforms ..which I think it probably will..it will still do better then Alita because of the streght of the X men brand name. It might do a lot less then Apocalypse and Still do better then Alita.

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OUT, although I think it could be very close if Dark Phoenix performs to the low end of my predictions. Domestically, I can't see lower than $100 million for Dark Phoenix. Despite all its troubles, this is still a big budget CBM with iconic characters. China also likes the X-Men franchise (it has grown with each installment), so I think the WW gross should still exceed Alita even if other OS markets take a dive.

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I don't think anyone asked for this or realized it was being made. 

 

In fact, I was hyped for DOFP when it first was coming out, but couldn't care less when Apocalypse rolled around looking like generic trash. 

 

I must've seen it a year after it came out, and true to form it was terrible. I don't even remember if they set up a sequel or it was supposed to end.

 

And before the trailer descended, I didn't even remember this franchise was continuing and I can't be the only one. Was Sansa Stark always part of the cast? Haha that's how much this has going against it. I'd love for it to gross under Alita, so I'm in. 

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