CAPTAIN MARVEL WEEKEND THREAD l $153M DOM (3rd-biggest March opening), $455M WW (6th biggest WW opening) l Other weekend #s: Dragon 14.7, Madea 12, Lego 3.8, Alita 3.2

[YM!]

12 minutes ago, jedijake said:

What about Hunger Games: Catching Fire domestic numbers?

I think he meant Worldwide but that’s a good target.

[YM!]

Again this is pretty good for Captain Marvel, it should open anywhere from $140M-$170M depending on how frontloaded it is. Either way hopefully it leads to more diversity in blockbusters.

 

I’ll be seeing it tomorrow with friends, pretty excited and as long as I gets me some cute kitty screentime and Mendelskrull delivering, I’ll be happy. A Detective Pikachu trailer in front would be the cherry on top.

Edited March 8, 2019 by YourMother the Edgelord

[Porthos]

12 minutes ago, Nova said:

Your data has actually been really spot on for these movies. Its crazy how you were able to build up an archive like the one you have and use it to compare current movies being released. The great part is that the data you provide is really really close to what the Thursday numbers end up being. Your range for CM has been in the $19-21M range and that's where it opened for Thursday previews. So thanks for all the work that you do as I am sure it's not easy. 

 

But I think we both know what the next logical step is. Start asking Deadline to pay you for your estimates. Your estimates are closer to actuals than what they typically provide 

You're too kind here, Nova, but thanks anyway for the compliment.  

 

My problem is I need to get better at figuring out which comps to use and how to figure out how the local release pattern is affecting my data when it comes to projecting a Thr range.  The number of showtimes locally is still the biggest nut I have to crack and it's something I want to keep thinking about how to best solve.

Still, thank you very much for the kind words. Much appreciated.

[Celedhring]

2 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Again this is pretty good for Captain Marvel, it should open anywhere from $140M-$170M depending on how frontloaded it is. Either way hopefully it leads to more diversity in blockbusters.

 

I’ll be seeing it tomorrow with friends, pretty excited and as long as I gets me some cute kitty screentime and Mendelskrull delivering, I’ll be happy. A Detective Pikachu trailer in front would be the cherry on top.

Mendelskrull is one of the best parts of the movie. Can't get enough of him, really.

[Valonqar]

1 hour ago, Brainbug said:

 

Woundt be so sure. Black Panther barely outgrossed TLJ and that was only because of its 700M DOM take and a rather surprisingly strong 626M OS run. Even with a 180M OW, it will be hard for CM to touch 550M+, let alone 600M. But even if it passes that, 700M+ OS is also not easy at all.

 

Im not saying it has 0 chance of passing Last Jedi but 1,32B is not a small amount of money.

I agree it isn't easy. But legs should be strong no? I remember that JW had worse Thursday and then blew up like nobody's business. 

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

RT does need to do something at this point about their audience score. It's clearly way too easy to manipulate. It's ironic too, because for all the flack IMDB gets around here, you never see scores as easily trolled there after a movie starts getting a decent amount of votes (case and point, CM's IMDB score of 6.6 isn't bad enough to say its being drastically affected by trolls, opposed to RT's 33% which is being majorly trolled). 

 

The score on 10 make spotting trolls more obvious to them I imagine and make it more possible to weight people rating according to the chance they are not serious (people that vote movie only 10/10 or only 1/10 are more easily remove).

 

 

[a2k]

1 hour ago, Brainbug said:

 

Woundt be so sure. Black Panther barely outgrossed TLJ and that was only because of its 700M DOM take and a rather surprisingly strong 626M OS run. Even with a 180M OW, it will be hard for CM to touch 550M+, let alone 600M. But even if it passes that, 700M+ OS is also not easy at all.

 

Im not saying it has 0 chance of passing Last Jedi but 1,32B is not a small amount of money.

agree. find it tough to see higher than 450 dom + 175 china + 575 os-ch = 1200 ww, 125+ below TLJ.

1125-1150 is a realistic goal.

Edited March 8, 2019 by a2k

[Valonqar]

14 minutes ago, Celedhring said:

_________ is one of the best parts of the movie. Can't get enough of him, really.

are we allowed to say that? 

Edited March 8, 2019 by Valonqar

[Celedhring]

Does that count as a spoiler? Just praising his performance. And I don't think the fact he plays that character is a spoiler either.

[rishijoesanu]

12 minutes ago, a2k said:

agree. find it tough to see higher than 450 dom + 175 china + 575 os-ch = 1200 ww, 125+ below TLJ.

1125-1150 is a realistic goal.

Odds on it finishing above Aquaman?

[Napoleon]

41 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

 

Poor Napoleon took a beating ^^"

I don't get it. I'm actually rooting for the movie to do well.

[Fullbuster]

40 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Thursday skewing 60/40 male likely bodes well for a good multiplier off that 20.7 for the opening weekend.

 

But...but...they said males would boycott this to show them who's the boss?

[Ent]

It will be interesting to see how CM will be portrayed and marketted in the next Endgame trailer and how it will boost her solo movie BO once that trailer is released.

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, rishijoesanu said:

Odds on it finishing above Aquaman?

too early to say imo. next weekend drops globally will make things clearer.

[Wrath]

30 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Again this is pretty good for Captain Marvel, it should open anywhere from $140M-$170M depending on how frontloaded it is. Either way hopefully it leads to more diversity in blockbusters.

 

I’ll be seeing it tomorrow with friends, pretty excited and as long as I gets me some cute kitty screentime and Mendelskrull delivering, I’ll be happy. A Detective Pikachu trailer in front would be the cherry on top.

Kitty and Mendohlson this film has in spades.

 

After giving it some thought, I've actually revised my (non-spoiler) thought that Mendohlson *isn't* the best part of the movie. He's absolutely terrific, but the *real* star of the show are the FX people who did the de-aging on SMJ. The CGI elsewhere in the movie is fine, but the work done making Fury 20+ years younger was mind-blowing for me.

Edited March 8, 2019 by Wrath

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, rishijoesanu said:

Odds on it finishing above Aquaman?

 

Nearly impossible to say right now because we dont even have the full Friday number and we dont know if the legs will be solid, good or great. But like @a2k said, a finish between 1,1B and 1,2B seems likely going by Marvel/SH comps. So id say it definetly has a shot at catching Aquaman but its too early to make more than a wide range atm.

[MyMovieCanBeatUpYourMovie]

10 minutes ago, Wrath said:

After giving it some thought, I've actually revised my (non-spoiler) thought that Mendohlson *isn't* the best part of the movie. He's absolutely terrific, but the *real* star of the show are the FX people who did the de-aging on SMJ. The CGI elsewhere in the movie is fine, but the work done making Fury 20+ years younger was mind-blowing for me.

 

I agree the work was good. 

 

I think the problem is for me that I saw SLJ in movies in the '90s, and so the... rest of SLJ does not match what I remember.  He doesn't really move like he used to (understandably) and he's not as... svelte. 

 

Not sure how you could really fix that other than getting a double to play him, but that seems impractical.  

Edited March 8, 2019 by MyMovieCanBeatUpYourMovie

[Fullbuster]

12 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

I don't get it. I'm actually rooting for the movie to do well.

 

I don't read many posts here but the few ones I saw from you didn't give me that feeling...But hey if that's true then all power to you

[KJsooner]

Gonna watch Fifth Element in honor of Luke Perry today!

[IronJimbo]

7 minutes ago, KJsooner said:

Gonna watch Fifth Element in honor of Luke Perry today!

great idea KJ