CAPTAIN MARVEL WEEKEND THREAD l $153M DOM (3rd-biggest March opening), $455M WW (6th biggest WW opening) l Other weekend #s: Dragon 14.7, Madea 12, Lego 3.8, Alita 3.2

[YLF]

Did the fake grace Randolph get banned? lol

[terrestrial]

Its a vote thing, in case it is not to see (I do not)

 

 

 

Edited March 8, 2019 by terrestrial

[fmpro]

3 minutes ago, YLF said:

Did the fake grace Randolph get banned? lol

🤞

[terrestrial]

Aaron Couch‏Verified account @AaronCouch 12m12 minutes ago

More

Update: Rotten Tomatoes says a bug allowed thousands of audience reviews to hit #CaptainMarvel that shouldn't have been counted.

(retweet per THR staff)

 

 

[a2k]

1 minute ago, terrestrial said:

Aaron Couch‏Verified account @AaronCouch 12m12 minutes ago

More

Update: Rotten Tomatoes says a bug allowed thousands of audience reviews to hit #CaptainMarvel that shouldn't have been counted.

(retweet per THR staff)

 

 

how about RT remove all CM user reviews except 2 and 3 stars (not extreme) considering it's very early into the run and they won't loose much data, and just start fresh?

[RealLyre]

looks like deadline is using Iron Man 3 as comp to get to 160M OW..

 

63.5M Friday

57.1M Sat -10%

39.4 Sun -31%

160M total

 

this would be on the very optimistic side if that Friday number doesn't increase imo.

 

Edited March 8, 2019 by RealLyre
.

[a2k]

1 minute ago, RealLyre said:

looks like deadline is using Iron Man 3 as comp to get to 160M OW..

 

63.5M Friday

57.1M Sat -10%

39.4 Sun -31%

160M total

 

this would on the very optimistic side if that Friday number doesn't increase imo.

 

yeah even BP fell 13% on Sat from full Friday. don't think CM can better that.

[terrestrial]

1 minute ago, a2k said:

how about RT remove all CM user reviews except 2 and 3 stars (not extreme) considering it's very early into the run and they won't loose much data, and just start fresh?

A lot of the users there are ~ disappearing when you click in the name to ~ does not exists, there are 'reviews' with ratings without even a name, long review rants with 1/2 stars that even say not having seen, but also 3 star reviews clearly meant as fresh per text, but writer seemingly not aware about it has to be 3.5+ to count as fresh and so on.

I tried out a lot, many many (forgot the term for more than many) are only 1 review accounts, or have only also Alita as review, or have maybe 4 or 5 reviews, with an account only 1 day to 3 weeks old. Or did not use it to write a review since 8y and more.

To me it looks like someone actually tries to slow them down.

1 vs ?x maybe?

 

Its interesting for my long-run study of influencing the business details, things,...

[RealLyre]

7 minutes ago, a2k said:

yeah even BP fell 13% on Sat from full Friday. don't think CM can better that.

I agree, a more realistic/conservative Sat drop would be 17%-18% imo

 

63.5

52.1 -18%

35.9 -31%

151.5M total

 

right behind THG's 152.5M OW and can probably edge it out.

 

[AndyK]

1 hour ago, CoolEric258 said:

 

Dang, only about a million more than my estimates. Following that...

 

20.7

63.5

55.2

42.5M

161.2M

 

Alas, still #NotaRecord

 

 

Highest OW ever for a female led movie?

[AJG]

Yeeeeeah I just saw the movie....

 

Probably the second worse MCU origin film. It feels super cheap, ugly and fake, and any thing done to set it apart gets really muddled. The standardisation present in Marvel movies saves it, it’s the same character types and humour you come to expect. Brie Larson also CARRIES this movie.

 

I genuinely do not know what they’re gonna do with this one. The film’s not terrible but unlike something like Aquaman, Doctor Strange and AntMan 2 (all films I find to be quite mediocre) there’s not really anything to write home about.

 

good luck to em.

[RealLyre]

1 minute ago, AndyK said:

Highest OW ever for a female led movie?

if you don't count Star Wars and Beauty and the Beast.

 

[Daxtreme]

1 minute ago, AndyK said:

Highest OW ever for a female led movie?

 

Unfortunately the record still belongs to Queen Ridley

 

 

[ZeeSoh]

	OD	Preview to OD multi	CM’s OD if it has the same multi
Iron Man 3	68.86	4.41	91.287
Avengers	80.81	4.32	89.424
Beauty & the Beast	63.78	3.91	80.937
Deadpool 1	47.335	3.73	77.211
Captain America 2	36.926	3.62	74.934
Ant Man 1	22.649	3.54	73.278
Wonder Woman	38.247	3.48	72.036
Logan	33.005	3.47	71.829
Doctor Strange	32.585	3.47	71.829
GotG1	37.84	3.38	69.966
GotG2	56.078	3.3	68.31
Spider-man	50.78	3.29	68.103
Xmen Apocalypse	26.302	3.21	66.447
Thor Ragnarok	46.47	3.2	66.24
Suicide Squad	64.893	3.16	65.412
Age of Ultron	84.42	3.06	63.342
Civil War	75.5	3.02	62.514
Black Panther	75.94	3.01	62.307
Justice League	38.471	2.96	61.272
Batman v Superman	81.558	2.944	60.9408
Ant Man 2	33.73	2.93	60.651
Deadpool 2	53.034	2.85	58.995
Infinity War	106.33	2.73	56.511
The Dark Knight Rises	75.754	2.48	51.336

 

I have highlighted the ones with the closest OD as per Deadline's update. If Captain Marvel has the same Preview to OW multi as those 3 movies then it gives a range of 143-149m as per the table I posted above. Black Panther is also close and its preview to OW multi will give a 166m OW but we know that BP had huge walk ups too due to tremendous walk ups which is why I am not using its numbers.

 

Based on this a 150m OW seems the most likely which is what I predicted at the beginning of the thread. Now it could be likely that OD was frontloaded due to Womens Day and that Sat and Sun wont be as frontloaded. If that is the case then we may see an OW in the high 150's or 160's but for now I am sticking with an OW around 150

[MCKillswitch123]

5 minutes ago, AndyK said:

Highest OW ever for a female led movie?

The Force Awakens says hi.

 

Good number, by the way. Really curious about the word of mouth (CinemaScore and that kind of shit - no, I'm not gonna pretend like I'm taking the RT debacle seriously).

Edited March 8, 2019 by MCKillswitch123

[Valonqar]

4 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

 

Unfortunately the record still belongs to Queen Ridley

 

 

would Queen Ridley open the movie that big without "Chewie we are home?"  

 

I voted Yes (over 155M). 

[RealLyre]

1 minute ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

The Force Awakens says hi.

 

Good number, by the way. Really curious about the word of mouth (CinemaScore and that kind of shit - no, I'm not gonna pretend like I'm taking the RT debacle seriously).

it'll most likely be A with a small chance of A-, the movie is a fun crowd pleaser that ends on a high note and the credit scene will get everyone more hype for EG.

 

 

[filmlover]

$150M+ is definitely in play. Brie and Marvel walking past the trolls like:

 

[LouisianaArkansasGeorgia]

4 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

would Queen Ridley open the movie that big without "Chewie we are home?"  

 

I voted Yes (over 155M). 

To be fair and honest, would Larson (or any other actress) open CM this big without the MCU brand and the Endgame connection?

Of course not.

 

[LouisianaArkansasGeorgia]

5 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

it'll most likely be A with a small chance of A-, the movie is a fun crowd pleaser that ends on a high note and the credit scene will get everyone more hype for EG.

 

 

I think that, in the same way that RT's user reviews are absurd, the CInemascore is absurd. People who go to these blockbusters opening days are certainly inclined to find them "The Best Ever!" and will most likely give them high scores.