Monday Numbers: Shazam $3.05M | Pet Sematary $1.59M | US $969K | Dumbo $937K

[Harley]

Could the drop be due to not having a big name in the movie? I really wasn’t overly impressed with its opening weekend numbers but whatever, it already has a sequel greenlit. 

[cdsacken]

Just now, Harley said:

Could the drop be due to not having a big name in the movie? I really wasn’t overly impressed with its opening weekend numbers but whatever, it already has a sequel greenlit. 

Family movies drop hard. Will jump big time tomorrow. 65% or more.

[Harley]

All movies go up on Tuesday. 

[Legion Again]

7 minutes ago, LordNox said:

Has any Superhero movie that recieved an A cinemascore ever dropped this much the first monday?

 

These numbers are simply mindboggling.

The Incredibles dropped a whopping 81.4%. Didn’t have an A though — but an A+! 3.7 legs.

[cdsacken]

Just now, Harley said:

All movies go up on Tuesday. 

Many go up only 40%. Family films plummet from Sunday to Monday and pop harder on Tuesday. They also fall harder again on Wednesday/Thursday and jump 140% or more on Friday versus jumps of 115-120%.

[ZeeSoh]

9 minutes ago, LordNox said:

Has any Superhero movie that recieved an A cinemascore ever dropped this much the first monday?

 

These numbers are simply mindboggling.

Guardians of the Galaxy 2 - 74.8%

Thor Ragnarok - 74.3%

Iron Man 3 - 73.8%

Age of Ultron - 73.7%

Captain America 2 - 73.5%

 

So not exactly the same but 3-4% hardly makes much of a difference to call Shazam's numbers "mindboggling". As others have mentioned,it is playing like a family film (as we all expected it to) and generally family movies fall harder on weekdays. It should perform well tomorrow and especially on the weekends. 

 

If it drops hard on the weekend then you can blow the concern trumpet all you want but doing it now is very premature

[cdsacken]

Spiderverse had a decent drop on first Monday with monster legs. Granted Shazam isn't going to have legs anywhere near that. 3.0-3.3 legs would be great.

[reddevil19]

I can barely claim to understand box office patterns as most of the true experts on this board. But still, that's why I read the board, so I can get insight. As such... How in the holy fuck are some people so puzzled at the Monday numbers? It's so far displaying a family movie behaviour. If the Tue drop is small, then sure, we can start being worried. But for now... What's so shocking? 

Edited April 9, 2019 by reddevil19

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Guardians of the Galaxy 2 - 74.8%

 

3 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

So not exactly the same but 3-4% hardly makes much of a difference

To be fair, Shazam’s Mon is 22.4% of Sun (per this estimate) vs 25.2% for GotG2. So, that 3% drop difference is worth a more than 10% bigger Monday.     

 

However, Shazam is basically the most kid targeted live action SH movie we’ve ever had release on a school week. I agree the drop is completely normal and no cause for alarm.

[ZeeSoh]

3 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

 

To be fair, Shazam’s Mon is 22.4% of Sun (per this estimate) vs 25.2% for GotG2. So, that 3% drop difference is worth a more than 10% bigger Monday.     

 

However, Shazam is basically the most kid targeted live action SH movie we’ve ever had release on a school week. I agree the drop is completely normal and no cause for alarm.

Well of course the difference will be higher since GoTG2's actual numbers are higher. But Shazam isnt aiming for GoTG2's numbers, we are more interested in the legs and in that regards a mere 3-4% difference on a single Monday hardly indicates anything. It is also not a like for like comparison. GoTG2 would have at least some school (if not schools then many colleges out) helping the weekdays a little. 

 

Anyways It's the weekend numbers that will be far more indicative. 

[Kalo]

1 hour ago, Matthew said:

There is not even a solid proof yet that Shazam is kid friendly. I will wait for second weekend to decide. 🤔🤔🤔

I saw it, great film, there are scary, intense and emotional scenes in the film, it definitely earns it's PG-13 rating. 

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

I'll just wait for the YouTube videos analyzing the drop. Hopefully that gives us clearer picture. 

[PenguinHyphy]

The NCAA Basketball Championship excuse is not a legitimate one because Captain America: The Winter Soldier’s first Monday also happened to be the same day as the championship, and that movie did not have as hard as a drop. That drop is giving Dumbo vibes to be honest. People might like the movie, but only 60% of adults actually recommend the movie, which is pretty low for a superhero movie. 

Edited April 9, 2019 by PenguinHyphy

[Legion Again]

8 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Well of course the difference will be higher since GoTG2's actual numbers are higher. But Shazam isnt aiming for GoTG2's numbers, we are more interested in the legs and in that regards a mere 3-4% difference on a single Monday hardly indicates anything. It is also not a like for like comparison. GoTG2 would have at least some school (if not schools then many colleges out) helping the weekdays a little. 

 

Anyways It's the weekend numbers that will be far more indicative. 

What I’m saying doesn’t have anything to do with absolute numbers. I’m just point out that mathematically, not all N% differences in drop are created equal, the higher the drop the bigger a difference it really is. For instance, say we’re dropping from 10M for a concrete, clean scenario.

 

50% drop vs 45% drop results in a 5M day vs 5.5M day, so the 5% better drop gives a 10% better day.    

 

75% drop vs 70% drop is 2.5M day vs 3M day, so the 5% drop is a 20% better day.     

 

An extreme case, 85% drop vs 80% drop is 1.5M day vs 2M day, so the 5% better drop is a fully 33% better day.      

 

The difference between 78 and 75% drop is actually way more than e.g. 50 vs 53% drop.     

 

Again, I agree with all the contextual reasons that Shazam should be expected to have a larger Monday drop and don’t view it as any cause for concern.

Edited April 9, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[LordNox]

2 minutes ago, PenguinHyphy said:

The NCAA Basketball Championship excuse is not a legitimate one because Captain America: The Winter Soldier’s first Monday also happened to be the same day as the championship, and that movie did not have as hard as a drop. That drop is giving Dumbo vibes to be honest. People appear might like the movie, but only 60% of adults actually recommend the movie, which is pretty low for a superhero movie. 

Then how could Shazam have recieved an A cinemascore rating? The only way you get an A cinemascore rating is if the audiences liked the movie. Its impossible to get an A if the consensus of the audiences wasn't positive.

[Valonqar]

Monday drop = flop

Tuesday jump = tick tock Avatar

 

[terrestrial]

5 minutes ago, PenguinHyphy said:

The NCAA Basketball Championship excuse is not a legitimate one because Captain America: The Winter Soldier’s first Monday also happened to be the same day as the championship, and that movie did not have as hard as a drop. That drop is giving Dumbo vibes to be honest. People appear might like the movie, but only 60% of adults actually recommend the movie, which is pretty low for a superhero movie. 

CA WS has overlap audience to Shazam!, but definitive not a 100% match.

Plus: that was 5 years back, since then cheap Tuesday becam far bigger, that alone changed pattern.

Plus other marker that changed since then

 

Btw, also how strong certain sport events got... even that has changed.

[Finnick]

5 minutes ago, PenguinHyphy said:

The NCAA Basketball Championship excuse is not a legitimate one because Captain America: The Winter Soldier’s first Monday also happened to be the same day as the championship, and that movie did not have as hard as a drop. That drop is giving Dumbo vibes to be honest. People appear might like the movie, but only 60% of adults actually recommend the movie, which is pretty low for a superhero movie. 

I hope you are joking, this movie is more of a Family/Kid movie. Do you realize some animated movies drop 86% on there first Monday. Shazam did well on FSS, with an awesome hold on Saturday and normal drop on Sunday. Plus most of schools and college are on. Shazam Monday box office is just normal. 

[The Panda]

2 hours ago, AJG said:

 

But college sports? Really?

March Madness is as big of a deal in the US as NBA

[cdsacken]

15 minutes ago, PenguinHyphy said:

The NCAA Basketball Championship excuse is not a legitimate one because Captain America: The Winter Soldier’s first Monday also happened to be the same day as the championship, and that movie did not have as hard as a drop. That drop is giving Dumbo vibes to be honest. People appear might like the movie, but only 60% of adults actually recommend the movie, which is pretty low for a superhero movie. 

Then it should tank this next weekend. Instead it will drop under 50% just watch.