charlie Jatinder Posted May 29, 2019 Author Share Posted May 29, 2019 13 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said: Pirates and Indy were in the age before Discount Tues, so the Tues:wknd multiplier is way off modern times. Not only Tuesday, 131% jump on Friday is huge as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xiazhi Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 1 hour ago, TMP said: People didn't go back to see Avatar or Titanic to make it the "highest grossing film of all time". That's not why they had such strong legs, normal people don't care about box office figures. I know Endgame's your favorite movie ever, but you don't have to make up false statements to defend it. Which part of his statement is false? Personal attack is not welcome here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 6 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said: Aladdin 11.75 A drop of 53.6% and a cume of 128.5m. Probably will have a somewhat steep Wednesday drop (maybe 40%) but that would still be a 7m Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anti-Pedantic Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Taruseth said: A drop of 53.6% and a cume of 128.5m. Probably will have a somewhat steep Wednesday drop (maybe 40%) but that would still be a 7m Wednesday. The highest Wednesday drop was 37.4% for PoTC: Deadmen tell no tales which opened on MDW in recent times. The average drop on Wed is 30% and many recent movies: Solo (-33%) Alice(-29%) X-Men TLS (-20%) X-Men DoFP (-30%) and Furious 6 (-28%). Aladdin has best WoM among them. I think with 25% drop 8.5m+ is doable. Edited May 29, 2019 by anti-Pedantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
picores Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 Tuesday drop is slighty better for Aladdin than Pirates 5...and that is great considering how awesome the drops have been so far. If Tuesday hits 11.75, the same multiplier than Pirates 5 from there gives Aladdin a 278m finish. 300m DOM will happen, fellas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexMA Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said: Damn. Indy made good ground from just 7.6 Tuesday. If somehow Aladdin mange 100% jump on 2nd Friday, 50 could be done. You have to remember Indy 4 also opened on a Thursday, so that was an additional $25 million before the weekend which further exhausted demand. Plus no cheap Tuesday at the time. So it starts to add up. That Tuesday also marked the middle point of Skull Crystal's box office adventure as it had made up to that point half of what it would go on to make over the rest of its run. That was day 6. Day 5 is that for Endgame, to give you an example from today. Dead Men Tell No Tales was day 6, Stranger Tides was day 8 (opened a week before Memorial Day weekend) and day 5 for At World's End. For other live-action remakes of classic Disney animations it was Day 10 in Maleficent's case (but came after MDW), day 8 for Beauty and the Beast, day 10 for The Jungle Book, day 9 for Alice in Wonderland, day 9 for Cinderella, day 7 for Alice Through the Looking Glass and day 7 also for Dumbo. So with that in mind Aladdin will have $128 million on Tuesday and probably an additional $14-15 million Wednesday+Thursday for $143 million on day 7 and possibly up to $155 million on day 8, which means I'm about ready to jump on the $300+ million train for this film. Nope, seems like I already have a ticket in my hand so I guess I'm riding the train already. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GOATPeterJackson Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 (edited) I love Godzilla and want it to succeed but I think the Venom comparison I've seen a few times now is ill advised. A Star Is Born and Halloween are nothing compared to what KOTM has to deal with in the next few weeks. Edited May 29, 2019 by GOATPeterJackson 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 End Game is not getting an expansion in June, or July or August. As Keyser said, the most logical place is Labour Day. There are too many fresh movies coming out for theatres to pack them in for, EG is going to continue shedding screens. It had a great run, but 850 is the max I can see it hitting now. And it might fall just short of Avatar too. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 16 minutes ago, baumer said: End Game is not getting an expansion in June, or July or August. As Keyser said, the most logical place is Labour Day. There are too many fresh movies coming out for theatres to pack them in for, EG is going to continue shedding screens. It had a great run, but 850 is the max I can see it hitting now. And it might fall just short of Avatar too. Avatar is looking very unlikely now Baumer. Godzilla plus slop2 next weekend 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexMA Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 (edited) 19 minutes ago, IronJimbo said: Avatar is looking very unlikely now Baumer. Godzilla plus slop2 next weekend And X-Men, everyone keeps forgetting X-Men. I know it's going to perform worse than the last two, but even so at $40-50 million it will be felt, especially by another fellow superhero movie. That's Endgame repeat views that won't happen that weekend because they'll see Dark Phoenix instead, talking about the most hardcore comic book fans here, of course, the kind that have seen Endgame upwards of 3 times in theaters, the kind that keep demand going even a month later. In the next couple of weeks we'll learn a lot about the effects of competition on legs. Because IW and Endgame are so close together right now it gives us an incredible opportunity to study those effects in a way that's never been possible before. Up to this point we were generally making educated guess as far as how much a movie could lose because of competition, but thanks to these two we'll finally have something much more concrete to look back on. It's absolutely PERFECT as we're currently 1 to 1 and going into a weekend that had pretty much zero competition for IW and will have the opposite for Endgame. Edited May 29, 2019 by AlexMA 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted May 29, 2019 Author Share Posted May 29, 2019 Tuesday Actuals Aladdin: $11.9mn JW 3: $3.2mn Endgame: $1.85mn PDP: $1.76mn BB: $1.09mn 22 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said: Tuesday Actuals Aladdin: $11.9mn JW 3: $3.2mn Endgame: $1.85mn PDP: $1.76mn BB: $1.09mn Just a 53% drop for Aladdin, even better than your estimate, I kinda thought it would go the other way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYer4Life Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 19 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said: Tuesday Actuals Aladdin: $11.9mn JW 3: $3.2mn Endgame: $1.85mn PDP: $1.76mn BB: $1.09mn I remember the days of having to wait until 5 or 6 PM Eastern Time for boxofficemojo to update the daily numbers. To be getting them at 6 AM now is a dream come true!!! Thank you kind sir! 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ms Lady Hawk Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 24 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said: Tuesday Actuals Aladdin: $11.9mn JW 3: $3.2mn Endgame: $1.85mn PDP: $1.76mn BB: $1.09mn Really good holds all around. Looks like everything dropped less than 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted May 29, 2019 Author Share Posted May 29, 2019 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said: Really good holds all around. Looks like everything dropped less than 60%. everything but Endgame in Top 20. There are many in 20-50%. Smallest drop was a Punjabi film Muklawa at 12% as its majorly collecting from Canada. Edited May 29, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ms Lady Hawk Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 7 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said: everything but Endgame in Top 20. There are many in 20-50%. Smallest drop was a Punjabi film Muklawa at 12% as its majorly collecting from Canada. Thank you! Wonder why the drops were so good compared to last year. 🙁about Endgame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamblinRed Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 Not surprised by that Aladdin number. Went to take my son to see it - who is 16 and went from being on the fence to asking me to take him to see it, I checked the theater online before I left and we were going to see it in the large auditorium and it had alot of seats available. By the time i got to the theater they had 2 non together front row seats left. The show 45 min later had 6 non together seats left. It feels like it is doing huge walk up business. Will go see it with him this upcoming weekend. Expected but not great number for AE. Continues to track just below IW. The next 3 weekends IW had really small drops (39%, 31%, 24%) - hard to see AE coming close to those with more competition the next 2 weeks than IW faced and a strong MD holdover. Anything under 9.5 next weekend for AE and 850 DOM is extremely hard to see. This is a really big weekend for AE to see if it has stabilized at all. It's only sub 50% drop was on a Holiday Weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted May 29, 2019 Author Share Posted May 29, 2019 Could be a wishful thinking, but from a 11.9 Tuesday, a 37% and 10% drop will led to $143mn Week with $6.75mn Thursday. A 100% jump, being a family film, and word of mouth hype, will mean $13.5mn Friday. Another 55% jump and 25% Sunday drop will be $50mn photofinish (-45% drop Approx). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jedijake Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 Memorial day movies always make, in their second weekend, right around what they make Monday-Thursday. So if Aladdin's mid-week numbers (including Monday) are as follows: Monday: 25.3 Tuesday: 11.75 Wednesday: 7.0 Thursday: 6.0 That gives a mid-week number of $50 million. That means the weekend will at least be close and should be between $45-$50 million. The total will be at least $190 million by Sunday (already ahead of BOP's last projection). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 (edited) For Endgame's theater holds, it's looking very good to hold probably in the 3200-3400 range of theaters this weekend, the same range as I'm expecting for JW3 and Pika. Then, you get to the June 6-8 weekend with SLOP and Dark Phoenix. At this point, Pika would be the big loser b/c it is performing the lowest of the 3, so I'd expect that movie to see the big drop (along with last weekend's killer B movies - Brightburn and Booksmart). But for that weekend, I'd expect Endgame to still hold 2500+ theaters (I could even see 2800+, but that's assuming SLOP and Dark Phoenix continue to look weak). And then the following weekend is Father's Day. Now, theaters know that...and they know that supers are father's day catnip...so I can't imagine a lot of places looking to unload Endgame if they can keep it at all...depending how Ma does, it would be the perfect split partner to share the Father's Day love with... So, those looking for TLJ type theater drops (where it lost 1142 theaters in weekend #5 to drop to 3090 and then 634 in weekend #6 to drop to 2456 and then 711 in weekend #7 to drop to 1745), I don't see it right now. Endgame held 3810 in weekend #5. I'm expecting by weekend #8 (father's day), we might still see it in 2000+ theaters...I mean, it just posted its 1st sub 40% drop day yesterday without holidays (if Charlie's numbers are correct), and it's above everything but JW3 and Aladdin...give it a few more days, and it might pop above JW3, too...and when you are holding that well, you hang around and the later releases drop... Edited May 29, 2019 by TwoMisfits 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
