Tuesday (5/28) Numbers

[MovieMan89]

June is weaker overall this year compared to FK+I2 last year, so I wouldn't be surprised if EG makes up ground on IW after this weekend. FFH will also give a bigger boost than AMATW did. 

[fastclock]

Some significant number of children are already out of school, so I am not surprise Aladdin's hold is very good. That does not make the weekend number to be automatically big. Less than 50M is still very likely. School this year is out really early, like 2 weeks earlier than usual. Maybe @RtheEnd has the school out data.

[Krissykins]

52 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

Great drop, -37%

[Juby]

18 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

June is weaker overall this year compared to FK+I2 last year, so I wouldn't be surprised if EG makes up ground on IW after this weekend. FFH will also give a bigger boost than AMATW did. 

 

Yyyyy. . . . No, it isn't. There are much more titles people want to see, last June were just these two. Now almost every weekend there are two big openers, and Toy Story might explode almost as well as Incredibles 2.

[sfran43]

 

[keysersoze123]

This week we will see 120m from openers and 45m+ from Aladdin. Next week we will see 110m from openers. Week later is probably the weakest one but still openers should do 70m?(MIB + Shaft 2). TS4 should open to 130m and then Far from home. I am not convinced a Sony release movie helping Endgame. Endgame would benefit through Disney films like TS4 and TLK. Anyway by the time FFH opens, its weekend gross would be trivial enough to make boost irrelevant.

[LonePirate]

28 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

June is weaker overall this year compared to FK+I2 last year, so I wouldn't be surprised if EG makes up ground on IW after this weekend. FFH will also give a bigger boost than AMATW did. 

 

Here are IW’s grosses from late June and early July last year. FFH is not going to have any significant impact on Endgame.

 

6/29 - 7/1: $1.543M

7/6 -7/8: $.936M (AMATW opened this weekend)

[meriodejaneiro]

On Sunday 20th EG intl. was 1.844B and on Sunday 27th EG intl was 1.883B. It's a $39M bo from monday to sunday (Mon-Thu = 22M; FSS= 17M). 

 

EG added $39M internationally last week (monday-sunday)

EG added $27M domestically last week (monday to sunday).

EG added $66M worldwide last week (monday-sunday). 

 

EG it's merely 101M away from Avatar.

 

I can see half of that coming from dom. market ($50M). Question is if, out of a $66M $39M intl. week, EG can leg it up to $50M extra. 

 

I think it's gonna surpass Avatar, sharply, but EG still has a shot at ending #1 ww. 

Edited May 29, 2019 by meriodejaneiro

[Barnack]

4 minutes ago, meriodejaneiro said:

Question is if, out of a $66M intl. week, EG can leg it up to $50M extra.

Is it a type ? Did you meat out of a $39M  intl. week.

[MovieMan89]

38 minutes ago, Juby said:

 

Yyyyy. . . . No, it isn't. There are much more titles people want to see, last June were just these two. Now almost every weekend there are two big openers, and Toy Story might explode almost as well as Incredibles 2.

Godzilla is beginning to look lucky to do 150. DP will be lucky to do much more than 100. MIB is a big question mark and could go as low as 100 or as high as 200. SLOP is looking for a big drop, so maybe 200-250. TS4 is unlikely to go much above 400. So maybe $1b total from all of those, right around FK+I2. So I guess overall the competition is pretty similar in terms of cumulative gross, just spread out over several movies instead of 2. Either way, the argument that EG has much fiercer competition isn't really true.

[Royce]

4 hours ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

mediocrity wins

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, Royce said:

[AlexMA]

15 minutes ago, meriodejaneiro said:

On Sunday 20th EG intl. was 1.844B and on Sunday 27th EG intl was 1.883B. It's a $39M bo from monday to sunday (Mon-Thu = 22M; FSS= 17M). 

 

EG added $39M internationally last week (monday-sunday)

EG added $27M domestically last week (monday to sunday).

EG added $66M worldwide last week (monday-sunday). 

 

EG it's merely 101M away from Avatar.

 

I can see half of that coming from dom. market ($50M). Question is if, out of a $66M intl. week, EG can leg it up to $50M extra. 

 

I think it's gonna surpass Avatar, sharply, but EG still has a shot at ending #1 ww. 

That 1.883 includes 2.2 million on Monday internationally.

 

So your international number for the week, Monday to Sunday, is actually $35.8 million (international last week was $1,845,482,612, not $1.844 billion), not $39 million.

 

Domestic was $27.2 million. So worldwide is actually $63 million.

 

But here's the thing, week 1 (Wednesday to Sunday) was $1,223.6 million worldwide ($357,115,007 in NA and $866,526,407 internationally), week 2 (first true Monday-Sunday) was $970.1 million worldwide ($264,162,842 in NA and $705,936,703 internationally), week 3 was $295.9 million worldwide ($102,467,794 NA, $193,408,339 INT), week 4 was $127.2 million worldwide ($47,622,732 NA, $79,611,163 INT) and now week 5 was $63 million.

 

You see where I'm going with this? Week 2 was 79% of week 1 (which is not 1 to 1 as we're comparing Wednesday-Sunday with Monday-Sunday), week 3 was 31% of week 2 and 24% of week 1. Meanwhile week 4 was 43% of week 3, 13% of week 2 and 10% of week 1. Now week 5 was 50% of week 4, 21% of week 3, 6% of week 2 and 5% of week 1.

 

Notice a trend? That's how box office works, the numbers go down. In this case, because it had such a massive start, even more so than what we would qualify as "normal", but let's be frank, opening to $1.22 billion is anything but normal.

 

This $63 million last week turns into 34 million the next week and 17 the week after that and 9 the one after that and so on. And that's mostly ignoring Godzilla, Rocketman, X-Men, Pets 2, Men in Black and so on (all coming in the next 3 weeks, YES). That's $60 million in 3 weeks if it hits a good patch and can hold on to its screens. But let's round that up and say $63 million for our convenience. That means it took 3 weeks to get to where this past weekend was. So at this point week 8 is $9 million, but let's say it's $10 instead, right? So week 9 and 10 get us another 10, right? That's now $73 million and we're already past day 68 internationally and day 66 domestically. But let's be optimistic, we'll say week 10 was $4 million, so we'll match that in another 2 weeks, 11 and 12, for now a total of $77 million. In week 13 (that's 3 months since release) no matter how you spin it we're in the $1.5 million range at best, but let's be optimistic again and say August brings us ....$6 million? That's a LOT of money for a movie in its 4th month, wouldn't you say so? A lot of IFs to get us there, but at that point does it even make a difference? What's $83 or $80? We're still $27-29 million away from the record.

 

You are welcomed to come back to this post 3 months from now and be amazed either by how close I ended up being or how I probably overestimated most of those numbers (because that's what has been happening since day 5 of Endgame's run with all my numbers, I can maybe count on one hand the number of days that were actually higher than what I had it at, to give you an idea this past week was supposed to be $70-75 million according to my calculations). There is absolutely no debate here, outside of a re-release the race is over, the numbers don't lie and if you think otherwise it's probably because you're not reading them right (or are simply forcing the numbers because that's what you want to happen).

[meriodejaneiro]

15 minutes ago, AlexMA said:

That 1.883 includes 2.2 million on Monday internationally.

 

So your international number for the week, Monday to Sunday, is actually $35.8 million (international last week was $1,845,482,612, not $1.844 billion), not $39 million.

 

Domestic was $27.2 million. So worldwide is actually $63 million.

 

But here's the thing, week 1 (Wednesday to Sunday) was $1,223.6 million worldwide ($357,115,007 in NA and $866,526,407 internationally), week 2 (first true Monday-Sunday) was $970.1 million worldwide ($264,162,842 in NA and $705,936,703 internationally), week 3 was $295.9 million worldwide ($102,467,794 NA, $193,408,339 INT), week 4 was $127.2 million worldwide ($47,622,732 NA, $79,611,163 INT) and now week 5 was $63 million.

 

You see where I'm going with this? Week 2 was 79% of week 1 (which is not 1 to 1 as we're comparing Wednesday-Sunday with Monday-Sunday), week 3 was 31% of week 2 and 24% of week 1. Meanwhile week 4 was 43% of week 3, 13% of week 2 and 10% of week 1. Now week 5 was 50% of week 4, 21% of week 3, 6% of week 2 and 5% of week 1.

 

Notice a trend? That's how box office works, the numbers go down. In this case, because it had such a massive start, even more so than what we would qualify as "normal", but let's be frank, opening to $1.22 billion is anything but normal.

 

This $63 million last week turns into 34 million the next week and 17 the week after that and 9 the one after that and so on. And that's mostly ignoring Godzilla, Rocketman, X-Men, Pets 2, Men in Black and so on (all coming in the next 3 weeks, YES). That's $60 million in 3 weeks if it hits a good patch and can hold on to its screens. But let's round that up and say $63 million for our convenience. That means it took 3 weeks to get to where this past weekend was. So at this point week 8 is $9 million, but let's say it's $10 instead, right? So week 9 and 10 get us another 10, right? That's now $73 million and we're already past day 68 internationally and day 66 domestically. But let's be optimistic, we'll say week 10 was $4 million, so we'll match that in another 2 weeks, 11 and 12, for now a total of $77 million. In week 13 (that's 3 months since release) no matter how you spin it we're in the $1.5 million range at best, but let's be optimistic again and say August brings us ....$6 million? That's a LOT of money for a movie in its 4th month, wouldn't you say so? A lot of IFs to get us there, but at that point does it even make a difference? What's $83 or $80? We're still $27-29 million away from the record.

 

You are welcomed to come back to this post 3 months from now and be amazed either by how close I ended up being or how I probably overestimated most of those numbers (because that's what has been happening since day 5 of Endgame's run with all my numbers, I can maybe count on one hand the number of days that were actually higher than what I had it at, to give you an idea this past week was supposed to be $70-75 million according to my calculations). There is absolutely no debate here, outside of a re-release the race is over, the numbers don't lie and if you think otherwise it's probably because you're not reading them right (or are simply forcing the numbers because that's what you want to happen).

Chill mate.

 

Peace. 

[ZattMurdock]

35 minutes ago, AlexMA said:

That 1.883 includes 2.2 million on Monday internationally.

 

So your international number for the week, Monday to Sunday, is actually $35.8 million (international last week was $1,845,482,612, not $1.844 billion), not $39 million.

 

Domestic was $27.2 million. So worldwide is actually $63 million.

 

But here's the thing, week 1 (Wednesday to Sunday) was $1,223.6 million worldwide ($357,115,007 in NA and $866,526,407 internationally), week 2 (first true Monday-Sunday) was $970.1 million worldwide ($264,162,842 in NA and $705,936,703 internationally), week 3 was $295.9 million worldwide ($102,467,794 NA, $193,408,339 INT), week 4 was $127.2 million worldwide ($47,622,732 NA, $79,611,163 INT) and now week 5 was $63 million.

 

You see where I'm going with this? Week 2 was 79% of week 1 (which is not 1 to 1 as we're comparing Wednesday-Sunday with Monday-Sunday), week 3 was 31% of week 2 and 24% of week 1. Meanwhile week 4 was 43% of week 3, 13% of week 2 and 10% of week 1. Now week 5 was 50% of week 4, 21% of week 3, 6% of week 2 and 5% of week 1.

 

Notice a trend? That's how box office works, the numbers go down. In this case, because it had such a massive start, even more so than what we would qualify as "normal", but let's be frank, opening to $1.22 billion is anything but normal.

 

This $63 million last week turns into 34 million the next week and 17 the week after that and 9 the one after that and so on. And that's mostly ignoring Godzilla, Rocketman, X-Men, Pets 2, Men in Black and so on (all coming in the next 3 weeks, YES). That's $60 million in 3 weeks if it hits a good patch and can hold on to its screens. But let's round that up and say $63 million for our convenience. That means it took 3 weeks to get to where this past weekend was. So at this point week 8 is $9 million, but let's say it's $10 instead, right? So week 9 and 10 get us another 10, right? That's now $73 million and we're already past day 68 internationally and day 66 domestically. But let's be optimistic, we'll say week 10 was $4 million, so we'll match that in another 2 weeks, 11 and 12, for now a total of $77 million. In week 13 (that's 3 months since release) no matter how you spin it we're in the $1.5 million range at best, but let's be optimistic again and say August brings us ....$6 million? That's a LOT of money for a movie in its 4th month, wouldn't you say so? A lot of IFs to get us there, but at that point does it even make a difference? What's $83 or $80? We're still $27-29 million away from the record.

 

You are welcomed to come back to this post 3 months from now and be amazed either by how close I ended up being or how I probably overestimated most of those numbers (because that's what has been happening since day 5 of Endgame's run with all my numbers, I can maybe count on one hand the number of days that were actually higher than what I had it at, to give you an idea this past week was supposed to be $70-75 million according to my calculations). There is absolutely no debate here, outside of a re-release the race is over, the numbers don't lie and if you think otherwise it's probably because you're not reading them right (or are simply forcing the numbers because that's what you want to happen).

A run like Endgame or Avatar are way harder than predict to what you are saying. The path to Endgame is still very much open: the further from the release date, the less affected the release is when it is as big as this one. Endgame is behaving close to Infinity War Dom and ABOVE Infinity War overseas - China.

 

It's barely one month out, and now it will go for a marathon for this $100m, I think once Endgame proves that Godzilla doesn't affect it's legs as much as people are thinking, people will come around to the fact that topping Avatar now is only a matter of time. I wouldn't discard it happening by end of June or early July. The very fact that it's close will keep Endgame a subject matter in the media circle and add it to the hype.

Edited May 29, 2019 by ZattMurdock

[NCsoft]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

This week we will see 120m from openers and 45m+ from Aladdin. Next week we will see 110m from openers. Week later is probably the weakest one but still openers should do 70m?(MIB + Shaft 2). TS4 should open to 130m and then Far from home. I am not convinced a Sony release movie helping Endgame. Endgame would benefit through Disney films like TS4 and TLK. Anyway by the time FFH opens, its weekend gross would be trivial enough to make boost irrelevant.

I noticed that last year IW dropped very well when Incredibles 2 opened $182M+, is there something there or did IW just suddenly decide to have a good drop? If I2 was somehow helping IW, maybe TS4 helps EG a little as well. 

[ZattMurdock]

2 hours ago, fastclock said:

Some significant number of children are already out of school, so I am not surprise Aladdin's hold is very good. That does not make the weekend number to be automatically big. Less than 50M is still very likely. School this year is out really early, like 2 weeks earlier than usual. Maybe @RtheEnd has the school out data.

I'd like to see him bringing up that data as well.

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

I noticed that last year IW dropped very well when Incredibles 2 opened $182M+, is there something there or did IW just suddenly decide to have a good drop? If I2 was somehow helping IW, maybe TS4 helps EG a little as well. 

There would be drive-ins playing 2 for 1 that studios add to the gross of both the movies as they are sold as 1 ticket. Only question this year is there is Aladdin which is also having a leggy run. last year Solo petered out quickly. So would Endgame or Aladdin pair with Toy Story 4.

[AlexMA]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

There would be drive-ins playing 2 for 1 that studios add to the gross of both the movies as they are sold as 1 ticket. Only question this year is there is Aladdin which is also having a leggy run. last year Solo petered out quickly. So would Endgame or Aladdin pair with Toy Story 4.

That's a tricky question, I'd say Aladdin is a much better fit with Lion King, so if they're going to have double-features it will be those two. So that leaves something else with Toy Story 4. But the thing is Endgame is a 3 hour movie and not really compatible with a much lighter and kid friendly Toy Story 4 (not to say kids don't watch Endgame, but you're not going to bring a 5yo to it). Incredibles 2 was a superhero movie too, and significantly more mature than say Toy Story 4, so a much better fit for Infinity War (which was also half an hour shorter, we can't forget that little yet very important detail). So those two I could see in double-features, Endgame and Toy Story 4 not so much, but who really knows, I mean we've seen weirder things done at the box office.

[keysersoze123]

3 hours ago, fastclock said:

Some significant number of children are already out of school, so I am not surprise Aladdin's hold is very good. That does not make the weekend number to be automatically big. Less than 50M is still very likely. School this year is out really early, like 2 weeks earlier than usual. Maybe @RtheEnd has the school out data.

Too much to expect @RtheEnd to provide School data 🙂 It varies state by state and in some case districts within the states also vary by couple of weeks.

 

Generally South and midwest close early. I know in California last day is next friday. North east close mid to late june. Also last day of the school is dependent on how bad weather affected school days. I think there is minimum of 180 school days. But already few school districts are out and quite a few school districts in Texas, Florida and other southern states take break this week. So wednesday drop has to be softer than last week.