Weekend Thread: Weekend Actuals - Godzilla KOTM $47.77M | Aladdin $42.84M | Rocketman $25.72M | MA $18.09M

[JohnnyGossamer]

Excellent numbers for Parasite in South Korea. Wonder what kind of legs it'll have there? Hopefully stellar.

[sfran43]

I can hear @baumer yelling, "well it was a fucking bad idea" in my head!!!😂

[UserHN]

3 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Excellent numbers for Parasite in South Korea. Wonder what kind of legs it'll have there? Hopefully stellar.

Is this the first SK movie that won the main Cannes prize? Seems like the awards boost is so strong.

[a2k]

KOTM needs 2.5x it's true ow to get to 110 dom.

 

6.3 + 41.7*2.5 = 110.55 (2.3x from full ow)

 

 

110 Dom

130 Ch

35 J

= 275 from 3 markets

 

Needs 125 from OS-Ch-J to get to 400 ww if those numbers are accurate.

The OS-Ch-J ow was ~60 so it's certainly possible. ~51 so needs 2.45x legs and won't be easy. (thanks @RamblinRed)

 

Edited June 3, 2019 by a2k

[JohnnyGossamer]

2 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Is this the first SK movie that won the main Cannes prize? Seems like the awards boost is so strong.

Gonna say yes to that.

[baumer]

17 minutes ago, UserHN said:

How about Aladdin?

You know Gitesh doesn't post here, right?

[RamblinRed]

15 minutes ago, a2k said:

KOTM revised estimate, 48.010

Date	Rank	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Days
May 31, 2019	1	$19,555,000		4,108	$4,760	$19,555,000	1
Jun 1, 2019	2	$16,215,000	-17%	4,108	$3,947	$35,770,000	2
Jun 2, 2019	2	$12,240,000	-25%	4,108	$2,980	$48,010,000	3

Wouldn't shock me if actuals go a little lower.
They downgraded all 3 days slightly and we have to wait and see if the 25% Sunday drop estimate is accurate. That would put its Sunday drop in line with Aladdin, JW3 and Booksmart estimates. Still feel like Sunday may drop closer to 30% that is projected for both MA, Rocketman, DP and AE.

 

It looks highly likely that Aladdin had the highest true FSS. 

[UserHN]

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

You know Gitesh doesn't post here, right?

Yeah, I know. I was directing the question to sfran, that's why I quoted him.

[sfran43]

1 minute ago, UserHN said:

Yeah, I know. I was directing the question to sfran, that's why I quoted him.

Her*

And no updates for Aladdin yet!

[a2k]

Warner Bros office with 50-ow dart board for 2019

 

[Avatree]

18 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

I can hear @baumer yelling, "well it was a fucking bad idea" in my head!!!😂

From 2018, the #17 opening weekend was original, the top 16 all non original. Same goes for 2017 too actually.

 

[RamblinRed]

11 minutes ago, a2k said:

KOTM needs 2.5x it's true ow to get to 110 dom.

 

6.3 + 41.7*2.5 = 110.55 (2.3x from full ow)

 

 

110 Dom

130 Ch

35 J

= 275 from 3 markets

 

Needs 125 from OS-Ch-J to get to 400 ww if those numbers are accurate.

The OS-Ch-J ow was ~60 so it's certainly possible.

 

Wasn't its OS-Ch-J closer to $50M?

179 WW - 49 DOM - 70 CH - 8.4 J = 51.6M

 

If I have that right then I think getting to 400M is a fairly heavy lift. 

I'm sort of thinking 220M (105M DOM and 115M OC-Ch-J) for DOM and OS-CH-J, then the 165-170 Ch-J for a 385-390M total.

Definitely correct me if I have the numbers wrong.

 

 

[LawrenceBrolivier]

2 hours ago, UserHN said:

Did I say anything about "overpredicted" and "underpredicted"? My theory is that the more there is hate on Twitter, the more it is likely to succeed. 

While media pays an out of proportion amount of attention to twitter, giving the impression that twitter is more relevant it really is - "hate" on twitter is a pretty poor metric to base predictions on, seeing as the platform is hateful by default.

Twitter only means as much as the people who pay attention to it. Unfortunately, a lot of really important people pay undo amounts of attention to it. But the numbers suggest even the most popular tweets would represent at best a tiny fraction of the general audience. It's funny seeing slashfilm say "This person got 400 retweets saying this snarky thing" like that's proof of how popular their one-liner was. If you think 400 people hitting retweet is any special achievement your bar is way too low

 

Take the "Star Wars" or "Game of Thrones" petitions.... those things got 100's of articles written based on 10000k tweets, and 1mil of signatures. Sounds impressive until you realize hundreds of millions of people  enjoyed those things. If you're caught up in staring at twitter like it's an honest mirror, really reflecting real life, then yeah those 10k haters might seem definitive. When you step back and realize 95% of the rest of the audience isn't even engaging on that level.....

If you're honestly using reddit or twitter as some sort of reliable barometer for public opinion you're probably using those platforms too much and it's shrinking your perspective. 

If Lion King succeeds historically, twitter isnt going to have anything to do with it 

Edited June 3, 2019 by LawrenceBrolivier

[RamblinRed]

WB has definitely had a pretty down year so far.

Highest DOM grosser in 2019 so far is Shazam with $138.7M, then #2 is Aquaman with 136M.

Then DP at $130.6M and finally LEGO 2 at 105.8.

After that they drop all the way down to CoLL at 54M

 

I'm thinking DP legs it out to about 140 and is the top grosser until It2 comes out.

 

 

 

[CJohn]

4 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Shittugal shitting as shitting always.

The marketing was absolutely everywhere for both movies. I am shocked at this. The numbers are so low the movies simply can't recover. The PTA's are atrocious.

[YM!]

54 minutes ago, baumer said:

You know Gitesh doesn't post here, right?

Yeah, it’s not like he’s a secret member on here...

 

@A Panda of Ice and Fire I have my eyes on you...

[Jonwo]

52 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

WB has definitely had a pretty down year so far.

Highest DOM grosser in 2019 so far is Shazam with $138.7M, then #2 is Aquaman with 136M.

Then DP at $130.6M and finally LEGO 2 at 105.8.

After that they drop all the way down to CoLL at 54M

 

I'm thinking DP legs it out to about 140 and is the top grosser until It2 comes out.

 

 

 

TBF that's basically the same as last year until Ocean's 8, CRA and The Meg. 

 

 

[MrFanaticGuy34]

Will Aladdin’s numbers go up with actuals?

[Avatree]

2 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

TBF that's basically the same as last year until Ocean's 8, CRA and The Meg. 

 

 

lol its just occurred to me. Who on earth would have guessed a year ago that The Meg would outgross Godzilla.

[sfran43]