Weekend Thread: Weekend Actuals - Godzilla KOTM $47.77M | Aladdin $42.84M | Rocketman $25.72M | MA $18.09M

[Minnale101]

5 minutes ago, ScoobyDoo21 said:

It will be funny that in May the two most underlooked films in estimation: John Wick and Aladdin are the two that will be the most profitable. 

I don’t think Aladdin was under locked. Good Aladdin movie was gonna make a ton 

 

but people thought movie was gonna be bad because of review embargo releasing so late

[Avatree]

4 minutes ago, ScoobyDoo21 said:

It will be funny that in May the two most underlooked films in estimation: John Wick and Aladdin are the two that will be the most profitable. 

 

for as good as John Wick is doing (at least domestic). I can't help but think it's not gonna be as successful in terms of profit as chapter 2.

 

For JW2, lionsgate doubled the budget, and in return they grossed double the box office.

 

For JW3, they doubled the budget again. But jw3 is quite clearly not doubling the box office of jw2. it's winding down now and worldwide its at $220m.

 

They really should have gotten a China release for chapter 3. Hopefully they get it into China for chapter 4.

[sfran43]

 

Edited June 3, 2019 by sfran43

[Justin4125]

11 minutes ago, Avatree said:

 

for as good as John Wick is doing (at least domestic). I can't help but think it's not gonna be as successful in terms of profit as chapter 2.

 

For JW2, lionsgate doubled the budget, and in return they grossed double the box office.

 

For JW3, they doubled the budget again. But jw3 is quite clearly not doubling the box office of jw2. it's winding down now and worldwide its at $220m.

 

They really should have gotten a China release for chapter 3. Hopefully they get it into China for chapter 4.

It didnt need to double JW2 in order to equal its profit. JW3 added about 35M to the budget, though I doubt marketing increased much from 2 to 3 (TV spend certainly didnt, plus awareness of the brand is much stronger this time around. P&A is largely a fixed cost, Ill almost guarantee you it barely changed from JW2 to JW3). In any case, grossing an additional 100M will more than cover the additional production costs. Trust me, the multipliers are misleading, a 40M film grossing 200M is more profitable than a 20M film grossing 100M 

 

The only thing that might skew this are participations and home entertainment. A big part of the profit story has always been home ent, which went up from JW1 to JW2 (very rare for sequels) and in both cases was very strong relative to the size of the gross). With these factors JW3 might be a little less profitable than JW2 (since Home ent normally decreases for sequels), but not by much.

 

In any case, the studio definitely prefers the higher WW gross, even if it cost them more to get there 

Edited June 3, 2019 by Justin4125

[Porthos]

I read a lot of that "Twitter Hate" argument from @UserHN that happened overnight (for me) and I'd like to chip in with a point that I think is being overlooked.

 

Setting aside for a moment whether or not a lot of people really are hating on the movie on Twitter (how do you even prove that?) I think it's more an issue of overall engagement about the movie.  

 

The reason you might be seeing negative comments about TLK, UserHN, is.... A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE talking about it, pro and con.

 

Lots of people talking = lots of positives and lots of negatives.  Funny that.

 

====

 

This brings up a side point.  There's a lot of people on Twitter.  I mean, a lot.  And there also happens to be a lot of opinionated people on Twitter desperate for attention.  Shocking, I know. So when something big comes down the pike, and given the trailer view count TLK has to be counted as big, of course there will be "a lot of haters".

 

That's just the nature of Twitter.

 

But again, how the hell you actually measure what has more "hate" and has more "love"? Frankly, it sounds nothing more to me than an ad-hoc justification after the fact.  Especially on a platform like Twitter where it is easy to hunt down the noise and ignore the signal.

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I read a lot of that "Twitter Hate" argument from @UserHN that happened overnight (for me) and I'd like to chip in with a point that I think is being overlooked.

 

Setting aside for a moment whether or not a lot of people really are hating on the movie on Twitter (how do you even prove that?) I think it's more an issue of overall engagement about the movie.  

 

The reason you might be seeing negative comments about TLK, UserHN, is.... A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE talking about it, pro and con.

 

Lots of people talking = lots of positives and lots of negatives.  Funny that.

 

====

 

This brings up a side point.  There's a lot of people on Twitter.  I mean, a lot.  And there also happens to be a lot of opinionated people on Twitter desperate for attention.  Shocking, I know. So when something big comes down the pike, and given the trailer view count TLK has to be counted as big, of course there will be "a lot of haters".

 

That's just the nature of Twitter.

 

But again, how the hell you actually measure what has more "hate" and has more "love"? Frankly, it sounds nothing more to me than an ad-hoc justification after the fact.  Especially on a platform like Twitter where it is easy to hunt down the noise and ignore the signal.

Boxofficepro used to have Twitter stats for movies. Even had a positive and negative ratio. But I assume they scrapped it because it never seemed accurate or useful.

[Porthos]

Oh yeah, one additional thing.

 

When it comes to the argument of "Twitter Love" = Underperformance and "Twitter Hate" = Overperformance, I would just like to point out that John Wick 3 says, "Hello".

 

...

 

As well as a minor indie film you might have heard of.  Avenging Endzone, I think it was called.  Something like that. 

 

Seems to me those two films kinda hurt the theory, but that's just me.

[LawrenceBrolivier]

Something else to keep in mind.... despite the fact there are over 100mil daily users of twitter, the users actually posting about anything you care about is a fraction of that, and the number of people who are known enough for you to pay attention to is an even smaller. There's a 100mil people using it every day, but it's more like 20k people total doing all the talking.

People call it an echo chamber for a reason. You stay in there long enough you might be fooled into believing 20k people retweeting a hot take is a huge moment in pop culture.... but remember 20k people is a sneeze compared to the #of people who saw Ma on Friday. 

The most popular movie-related tweet you saw last month barely filled the back row of John Wick's 3rd weekend. 

Edited June 3, 2019 by LawrenceBrolivier

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, a2k said:

they should give a limited re-release to Shazam and Pikachu over the Holidays if they don't have anything else. Both are family friendly.

 

Why don't studios do that...Does it get too costly?

 

It is not easy to get a lot of screen and good deal on Big weekends/holiday season for new release, I would not imagine for movie available on home video. And on the limited segment, you will compete on the Die Hard and other Christmas classic getting limited showing. I am not sure if it is common for a studio like WB to not have anything else in that window to start with, I think the last 5 year's all the studio had holiday release.

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

It is not easy to get a lot of screen and good deal on Big weekends/holiday season for new release, I would not imagine for movie available on home video. And on the limited segment, you will compete on the Die Hard and other Christmas classic getting limited showing. I am not sure if it is common for a studio like WB to not have anything else in that window to start with, I think the last 5 year's all the studio had holiday release.

WB does have a Christmas release this year (the PG-rated Melissa McCarthy comedy Superintelligence). In fact everybody does except Paramount (whose year is looking to end with the delayed Blake Lively thriller Rhythm Section in late November).

[keysersoze123]

13 hours ago, Menor said:

Pulse for holdovers is jerky and not super predictive of daily drops. For example movies can see 30% drop in Pulse between a Wednesday and Thursday despite only dropping 5% in actuals

This is an important point that cannot be ignored. People get excited seeing Pulse increase/drops for holdovers when it’s mostly irrelevant. for openers or for PS the trend is useful to extrapolate.

[Firepower]

Del

Edited June 3, 2019 by Firepower

[Firepower]

1 hour ago, Avatree said:

For JW3, they doubled the budget again. But jw3 is quite clearly not doubling the box office of jw2. it's winding down now and worldwide its at $220m.

That's not true, JW3 budget is 55 mln, not even close to "twice as big budget". It'll be even more profitable than JW2.

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, Avatree said:

For JW2, lionsgate doubled the budget, and in return they grossed double the box office.

 

For JW3, they doubled the budget again. But jw3 is quite clearly not doubling the box office of jw2. it's winding down now and worldwide its at $220m.

John Wick 2 qualified cost in new york: 23.17m (But it was an international shoot) / spent: 33m

John Wick spent in the NY State: qualified cost 20m, spent: 29m

 

First one was probably in the 40-45m gross budget type.

 

Edited June 3, 2019 by Barnack

[Barnack]

14 minutes ago, Firepower said:

That's not true, JW3 budget is 55 mln, not even close to "twice as big budget". It'll be even more profitable than JW2.

Wasn't not rumored to be around 75m for John Wick 3 ?

 

 

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, Minnale101 said:

I don’t think Aladdin was under locked. Good Aladdin movie was gonna make a ton 

 

but people thought movie was gonna be bad because of review embargo releasing so late

Agreed so true. A lot of desperation in that hatred as well. People so badly wanted Aladdin to suck. I'm sorry to say (not really) that it was awesome.

[Firepower]

Just now, Barnack said:

Wasn't not rumored to be around 75m for John Wick 3 ?

Only wiki mentioned 75m, all other sites mention 55m.

[dudalb]

Lots of denial in the Godzila KOTM threads about the films underperforming pretty much everywhere.  Lots of hatred toward the critics of the "HOW DARE ANYBODY NOT LIKE SOMETHING I LIKE!" variety.

Seems to me that the blame should go to Warners"Legnedary by going with a weak script that would not appeal to the General Audince. The Kaiju fans are happy as long as you have a Monster Mash, but I think most people require a bit more..like decent writing ..which this film does not have a lot of.

[sfran43]

 

Edited June 3, 2019 by sfran43

[sfran43]