Tuesday Numbers:Big increases...

[LonePirate]

People really need to stop with this Labor Day expansion nonsense for Endgame. It did not happen for IW and it will not happen for Endgame. Plus, Endgame is now grossing about 20% less than IW in the dailies, so there is even less incentive to keep it in theaters instead of releasing it on home video.

 

You know what movie will receive a Labor Day expansion? TS4, just like TI2 did last year. It occupies the same release spot and shares the same demo appeal as TI2. TS4 is the movie you should be predicting to receive a Labor Day weekend bounce.

[Legion Again]

6 minutes ago, tawasal said:

Why are people getting touchy for @Thanos Legion mentioning fairly harmless post about the legs of Endgame? It’s not like he is saying anything that isn’t true.

I think some people have misinterpreted what I’m saying. Or at least, most of the responses seem to be making a bit of a straw man out of my actual point.     

 

I emphatically did did not say (and would never, because it would be absurd) that Endgame is having a bad run. It had a ludicrous opening week x low end multiplier=spectacular run. The total numbers don’t make a low multi into a high multi though.

Edited June 5, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Cappoedameron]

29 minutes ago, meriodejaneiro said:

good for them ... I just hope when it comes close to release, all this madness about Pika 1B dom an smilar don't come along too (again). It was kind of tiring (similar to the Avatar-EG thing).

The sequel won't have to compete with anything as monstrous as EG so that's already a good thing and won't have all it's energy sucked away by it . Before anyone comes at me nothing is coming close to EG for a long time. 22 films in the making, the departure of the OG 6, it was a cultural event and won't be met for a long time. 

 

 

[JohnnyGossamer]

I'd be surprised if returns don't diminish DOM for the next Pokemon movie. Don't think competition matters.

[tawasal]

14 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

I think some people have misinterpreted what I’m saying. Or at least, most of the responses seem to be making a bit of a straw man out of my actual point.     

 

I emphatically did did not say (and would never, because it would be absurd) that Endgame is having a bad run. It had a ludicrous opening week x low end multiplier=spectacular run. The total numbers don’t make a low multi into a high multi though.

You have been posting these updated projections for some time, why is it all of sudden problematic. It’s not really a bad thing to say. I think some people skimmed your post without much effort.

[keysersoze123]

This is internet. Be prepared to be corrected, condemned and ridiculed.

 

 

I think we all can agree it finished few $ less than what we expected after OW and opening week. Bigger question is why did it finish lower than TFA despite much larger OW. Obviously there is holiday effect for TFA but endgame had > 40% OW and so in theory could have hit that number.

 

Does that mean there are audience who will only watch movies during holidays. Or SW has greater appeal with otherwise rare visitors to movie theaters. This is just for domestic as Endgame has records in most countries except traditional Europe/Japan. At least in those countries SH movies are not the most popular.

 

[The GOAT]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

This is internet. Be prepared to be corrected, condemned and ridiculed.

 

 

I think we all can agree it finished few $ less than what we expected after OW and opening week. Bigger question is why did it finish lower than TFA despite much larger OW. Obviously there is holiday effect for TFA but endgame had > 40% OW and so in theory could have hit that number.

 

Does that mean there are audience who will only watch movies during holidays. Or SW has greater appeal with otherwise rare visitors to movie theaters. This is just for domestic as Endgame has records in most countries except traditional Europe/Japan. At least in those countries SH movies are not the most popular.

 

Old people no care about cape movies.

Edited June 5, 2019 by The GOAT

[keysersoze123]

17 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

People really need to stop with this Labor Day expansion nonsense for Endgame. It did not happen for IW and it will not happen for Endgame. Plus, Endgame is now grossing about 20% less than IW in the dailies, so there is even less incentive to keep it in theaters instead of releasing it on home video.

 

You know what movie will receive a Labor Day expansion? TS4, just like TI2 did last year. It occupies the same release spot and shares the same demo appeal as TI2. TS4 is the movie you should be predicting to receive a Labor Day weekend bounce.

I disagree. There was less incentive to expand IW. But Endgame will have some targets still in play. We will know for sure in August. I could even see a extended director's cut open around that time.

[tawasal]

You have to understand that nobody sane is saying that EG’s numbers are bad, because we really don’t have anything to compare it to, until we get a movie near or above it’s OW. But the multiplier, no matter how you look at it, isn’t the best thing about EG’s run. It’s on the low end and one of the reasons it might come short on Avatars worldwide gross. 

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

This is internet. Be prepared to be corrected, condemned and ridiculed.

 

 

I think we all can agree it finished few $ less than what we expected after OW and opening week. Bigger question is why did it finish lower than TFA despite much larger OW. Obviously there is holiday effect for TFA but endgame had > 40% OW and so in theory could have hit that number.

 

Does that mean there are audience who will only watch movies during holidays. Or SW has greater appeal with otherwise rare visitors to movie theaters. This is just for domestic as Endgame has records in most countries except traditional Europe/Japan. At least in those countries SH movies are not the most popular.

 

superhero genre, can reach just many people, star wars is very very strong brand in us, and it applies to older demographic, something than superhero movies like endgame cant do,  what i am saying older demographic i mean that people are now in 50-60 went to see tfa, while they just dont care about superhero movies, the fact that endgame even came as closes, speaks volumes as to how fast the fanbase of mcu and supehero movie grew

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, tawasal said:

You have to understand that nobody sane is saying that EG’s numbers are bad, because we really don’t have anything to compare it to, until we get a movie near or above it’s OW. But the multiplier, no matter how you look at it, isn’t the best thing about EG’s run. It’s on the low end and one of the reasons it might come short on Avatars worldwide gross. 

we shouldnt judge its multi like a 100 or a 200 opener though, maybe we will see in time when some other movies crack  300 ow, that a 2,3-2,4 multi is normal for a 300 opener like a 2.5-2.7 is normal for a 200 /100 opener

[jedijake]

<Raises hand> I know, I know.

 

I think that EG was always poised to make less than TFA. I don't think the OW had anything to do with it. I think it was always about how viewings were SO compressed into the first two weekends that, when compared to TFA, would have been spread out over a longer period of time. Thing is, EG was really a precedent that even TFA wasn't. Maybe the only thing to compare to EG was ROTJ. Other huge sagas such as LOTR and HP had known endings. It was just a matter or watching how those endings would be shown. Even with TFA, there were spoilers BUT since it was the beginning there were NO huge secret mysteries that had to be revealed. And if you add in the fact that people still had to scratch their heads about whether TFA would be good (after the prequels 10 years earlier) it took some folks time to realize that it was actually good. A huge mysterious outcome that had to be portrayed would have launched TFA even bigger but would have yielded smaller legs.

 

Never ever had there been SUCH a build up of a cinematic event as EG and NEVER had there ever been such a "need" to see it so early. With ROTJ even, there was no internet, no medium for mass reveal of spoilers and cinematic build ups were not a thing.

 

So add that to the fact that the movie is 3 hours and thus such a commitment to see over and over, you get the lower legs. For all intents and purposes it played out like the long awaited TV finale of the most massive TV show in history that people would tune in when it aired rather than put it on DVR and watch it a month later after everyone else had already seen it and talked about it. We're talking about HUGE TV event-bigger than Game of Thrones which is only available to HBO subscribers. We're talking Superbowl, MASH, Friends, and the first season of Survivor.

 

So the shorter than expected legs make sense when you look at it as a must-see event for the first two weekends.

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, The GOAT said:

Old people no care about cape movies.

SW has weird caped characters as well.

[Legion Again]

Since I have somehow found myself on the “legs were medium-bad” side of my favorite movie and BO run ever, I do have one more observation to make.     

 

The low legs are not just a function of having 60M previews and a 300M pure FSS in the denominator. The 2nd weekend multiplier avoids all of that, and it ‘s still going to be a 2.45 or so. The 3rd weekend multi will be low too. It’s not like it had unavoidably big 2nd and 3rd week drops because it was dropping from unsustainable heights and then leveled out some, the drops have been sizable every week — likely due to the fact that so many of its likely audience had seen it already (multiple times in many cases).

Edited June 5, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:

Since I have somehow found myself on the “legs were medium-bad” side of my favorite movie and BO run ever, I do have one more observation to make.     

 

The low legs are not just a function of having 60M previews and a 300M pure FSS in the denominator. The 2nd weekend multiplier avoids all of that, and it ‘s still going to be a 2.45 or so. The 3rd weekend multi will be low too. It’s not like it had unavoidably big 2nd and 3rd week drops because it was dropping from unsustainable heights and then leveled out some, the drops have been sizable every week — likely due to the fact that so many of its likely audience had seen it already (multiple times in many cases).

and again a superhero movie has a limit when it comes to demographic, bc lets say that black panther was an anomally and wasnt see like  a superhero movie, then you have iw too look at which made 678, so endgame will make 840+ thats a huge increase and it means that it reached a demographic that superhero movies dont usually do, and that only happened in like 1 year, from just a 11 year old franchise, if i had to guess, i would say that tfa dom record will probably fall by an endgamish mcu movie

[Ryan Reynolds]

57 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

People really need to stop with this Labor Day expansion nonsense for Endgame. It did not happen for IW and it will not happen for Endgame. Plus, Endgame is now grossing about 20% less than IW in the dailies, so there is even less incentive to keep it in theaters instead of releasing it on home video.

 

You know what movie will receive a Labor Day expansion? TS4, just like TI2 did last year. It occupies the same release spot and shares the same demo appeal as TI2. TS4 is the movie you should be predicting to receive a Labor Day weekend bounce.

I don't think will get expansion,  but maybe IMAX rerelease labor day weekend,  they had mcu marathons last year 

[keysersoze123]

Quick check in fandango(NYC, LA, SF) for this friday showtimes for endgame, shows it retaining 1 screen and in some theaters 5 shows. This is going to be the weekend it has good drop without any holiday effect. Let us see how good or bad the theater loss is.

[The GOAT]

31 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

SW has weird caped characters as well.

I guarantee you SW has 100x more old people than the capes. think about all the nerds from 80s that are still alive.

Edited June 5, 2019 by The GOAT

[keysersoze123]

6 minutes ago, The GOAT said:

I guarantee you SW has 100x more old people than the capes. think about all the nerds from 80s that are still alive.

Key thing is the fanbase were built with OT and they are still seeing it 4 decades later. 3 decades from them the older crowed will be seeing SH movies instead of SW.

[VanillaSkies]

1 hour ago, LonePirate said:

People really need to stop with this Labor Day expansion nonsense for Endgame. It did not happen for IW and it will not happen for Endgame. Plus, Endgame is now grossing about 20% less than IW in the dailies, so there is even less incentive to keep it in theaters instead of releasing it on home video.

 

You know what movie will receive a Labor Day expansion? TS4, just like TI2 did last year. It occupies the same release spot and shares the same demo appeal as TI2. TS4 is the movie you should be predicting to receive a Labor Day weekend bounce.

Ladies and Gentleman, we have the head of Disney Film Distribution posting on these forums!
It must be, because that is pretty much the only person who could at this point definitively say there will be no labor day expansion for Endgame. 

Forget the fact that they chose to expand Incredible 2 last year to get that film past the 600 million mark, as opposed the Infinity War which wasn't close to any milestone to pass. 

Forget also the history of films being expanded on that weekend, such as these;

2010 - Avatar: Special Addition Re-Release (Fox)

2011 - Cars 2 expands +1800 theatres (Disney)

2012 - AVENGERS (OG) +1582 theatres (Disney) 

2013 - Monsters University + 1646 theatres (Disney)

2015 - Inside Out + 2204 theatres (Disney) 

2016 - Finding Dory +1730 theatres (Disney) 

2017 - Cars 3 + 2231 theatres (Disney) 

 

Disney clearly has no history of expanding it's biggest titles on Labor Day weekend, and clearly would never do it for an Avengers film. 

We can all pack it in now, we have our definitive answer. NO LABOR DAY EXPANSION FOR ENDGAME. Stop the speculation!