Tuesday Numbers:Big increases...

[Avatree]

1	1	Aladdin (2019)	BV	$7,797,927	+66%	-35%	4,476	$1,742	$198,035,063	12
2	2	Godzilla: King of the Monsters	WB	$5,532,586	+44%	-	4,108	$1,347	$57,160,975	5
3	3	Rocketman	Par.	$3,720,754	+57%	-	3,610	$1,031	$31,822,508	5
4	4	Ma (2019)	Uni.	$2,480,060	+48%	-	2,808	$883	$22,252,725	5
5	5	John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum	LG/S	$1,800,742	+40%	-44%	3,604	$500	$128,829,075	19
6	7	Pokemon Detective Pikachu	WB	$1,234,216	+64%	-29%	3,147	$392	$132,875,930	26
7	6	Avengers: Endgame	BV	$1,208,347	+39%	-35%	3,105	$389	$817,804,438	40
8	8	Booksmart	UAR	$621,986	+42%	-38%	2,518	$247	$15,400,122	12
9	9	Brightburn	SGem	$525,539	+47%	-52%	2,607	$202	$15,235,968	12
10	10	The Hustle	UAR	$271,819	+51%	-54%	1,407	$193	$33,667,850	26
11	11	A Dog's Journey	Uni.	$271,125	+63%	-59%	1,674	$162	$19,275,885	19
12	12	The Intruder (2019)	SGem	$150,114	+43%	-59%	807	$186	$34,453,162	33

[The GOAT]

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Key thing is the fanbase were built with OT and they are still seeing it 4 decades later. 3 decades from them the older crowed will be seeing SH movies instead of SW.

which is SW ,rn, appeals more to old people.

[VanillaSkies]

While Aladdin will have some competition from SLOP2 and TS4, there are certainly some things working in it's favor in it's climb to 300 million;

- stronger weekdays now that schools are starting to let out. More and more school districts will be out as the month of June proceeds. 

- Father's Day weekend in it's 4th weekend, which generally results in minuscule Sunday drops for family fare

- Double features with TS4 (also Disney) in it's 5th weekend, which should soften the drop that weekend as well

- generally exceptional word of mouth

With it currently sitting at 198 million, it's certainly more likely than not at this point to pass 300 million. 

I'm more interested to see if it can get past 325 million +

Love a good  box office underdog story, and this is certainly one with almost everyone having written this off before release. 

[sfran43]

June 9	% Change from Last Wknd
The Secret Life of Pets 2	Universal / Illumination	$60,000,000	$60,000,000	NEW
Dark Phoenix	Fox	$49,900,000	$49,900,000	NEW
Aladdin (2019)	Disney	$22,200,000	$227,700,000	-48%
Godzilla: King of the Monsters	Warner Bros.	$19,000,000	$81,100,000	-60%
Rocketman	Paramount	$14,300,000	$50,700,000	-44%
Ma	Universal	$8,000,000	$33,200,000	-56%
John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum	Lionsgate / Summit	$6,400,000	$137,200,000	-42%
Avengers: Endgame	Disney / Marvel	$4,700,000	$824,000,000	-41%
Pokémon: Detective Pikachu	Warner Bros.	$4,100,000	$138,200,000	-41%
Booksmart	United Artists Releasing	$2,200,000	$18,500,000	-33%

[thenerdal]

If Infinity War didn't get an expansion, Endgame most likely won't. Just stop expecting it tbh. Doing so will make you guys disappointing yet again if it doesn't happen.  

Edited June 5, 2019 by thenerdal

[a2k]

KOTM high-end 19-20 2nd weekend but can see lower at 18 if Thu is bad due to previews.

 

5.53

3.6 (-35%)

3.0 (-17%)

 

5.1 (+70%)

7.4 (+45%)

5.5 (-26%)

= 18 (-62%)

Edited June 5, 2019 by a2k

[DisposedData]

BOP lowballing Aladdin again. In what universe will it make less than 3x its Tuesday? Come on now.

[LonePirate]

57 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

Forget also the history of films being expanded on that weekend, such as these;

2010 - Avatar: Special Addition Re-Release (Fox)

2011 - Cars 2 expands +1800 theatres (Disney)

2012 - AVENGERS (OG) +1582 theatres (Disney) 

2013 - Monsters University + 1646 theatres (Disney)

2015 - Inside Out + 2204 theatres (Disney) 

2016 - Finding Dory +1730 theatres (Disney) 

2017 - Cars 3 + 2231 theatres (Disney) 

 

Disney clearly has no history of expanding it's biggest titles on Labor Day weekend, and clearly would never do it for an Avengers film. 

We can all pack it in now, we have our definitive answer. NO LABOR DAY EXPANSION FOR ENDGAME. Stop the speculation!

The smart-ass comment aside, five of the seven films you listed are animated films with TI2 making that number six. If you were a betting man, would you place money on Disney expanding an animated film that weekend or a live action film? Also, why do you place more weight on what happened seven years ago than what has happened last year or in five of the last six years? Also, if Disney only expanded it biggest titles over Labor Day, why didn't IW receive an expansion last year? And if you come back to say Disney expands films to cross a certain box office threshold, what is there for Endgame to cross? It has maybe $40M left globally which is still about $30M away from Avatar. No Labor Day expansion is going to make up that distance.

 

If I were teaching a logic class, you would fail it with the arguments you presented above.

Edited June 5, 2019 by LonePirate

[tawasal]

Will SLOP2 be the first non disney 200m grosser of the year? Pretty weak year for the other studios. 

[a2k]

16 minutes ago, DisposedData said:

BOP lowballing Aladdin again. In what universe will it make less than 3x its Tuesday? Come on now.

24 is the lowest it can go imo while 25-26 is realistic.

 

7.8

4.3 (-45%)

3.9 (-10%)

 

7.0 (+80%)

10.15 (+45%)

7.85 (-23%) // -20% last Sun

= 25

 

[Legion Again]

12 minutes ago, tawasal said:

Will SLOP2 be the first non disney 200m grosser of the year? Pretty weak year for the other studios. 

Not if it misses 200 it won’t be      

 

Hobbes and Shaw could also miss. First non Disney-produced movie over 200 to be It 2?

[cdsacken]

48 minutes ago, thenerdal said:

If Infinity War didn't get an expansion, Endgame most likely won't. Just stop expecting it tbh. Doing so will make you guys disappointing yet again if it doesn't happen.  

Why infinity war get a re release? It had nothing in sight to beat other than 3rd place WW at the time.

Edited June 5, 2019 by cdsacken

[DAJK]

Apparently SLOP2's pre-screening gross from last month will be rolled into Sunday of all days. So we can expect weekend numbers to be slightly higher than what we might think off of the Friday number, but we should also take this into account if people start saying "awesome Sunday drop... huge legs incoming!!" 

[a2k]

Depending on wom and TS4 impact am expecting 3.1-3.3x from SLOP2. SLOP1 did 3.57x approx.

60 ow with 3.1-3.3x gives 186-200 (198 really, but 200 for practical purposes).

[cdsacken]

2 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

I think some people have misinterpreted what I’m saying. Or at least, most of the responses seem to be making a bit of a straw man out of my actual point.     

 

I emphatically did did not say (and would never, because it would be absurd) that Endgame is having a bad run. It had a ludicrous opening week x low end multiplier=spectacular run. The total numbers don’t make a low multi into a high multi though.

People on this site often equate legs with run but several 4x legs were crappy total runs.  I would rather had 270 with 3.1 legs probably but ultimately it's still amazing. When people see the #1 next year do half that total at best, then they may better understand.

[Eric Duncan]

3 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Apparently SLOP2's pre-screening gross from last month will be rolled into Sunday of all days. So we can expect weekend numbers to be slightly higher than what we might think off of the Friday number, but we should also take this into account if people start saying "awesome Sunday drop... huge legs incoming!!" 

source on this, because what the h*ck????????????????

[Menor the Destroyer]

The conclusion, no spoiler, hype, seasonal effect has been discussed but Endgame also has huge barriers to entry compared to TFA. People who weren't all that into SW would be more likely to watch and be able to enjoy TFA than people who know nothing about the MCU (I know some did, but in the aggregate). Thus, after it's dried up the people who were super hyped (which was a gigantic amount and a testament to the way the MCU has grabbed audiences), there wasn't much room for it to grow. This led to poor legs (yes I know it added quite a lot after the OW, but it undeniably had pretty bad drops that prevented it from nabbing TFA/Avatar's records).

[a2k]

9 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Not if it misses 200 it won’t be      

 

Hobbes and Shaw could also miss. First non Disney-produced movie over 200 to be It 2?

what are ur guesses for mib and tarantino's hollywood?

[Amorphous]

Went to see MA (twice) and G:KITM on Tuesday since I just moved to LA. All three showings were 100% packed.

[cdsacken]

22 minutes ago, a2k said:

24 is the lowest it can go imo while 25-26 is realistic.

 

7.8

4.3 (-45%)

3.9 (-10%)

 

7.0 (+80%)

10.15 (+45%)

7.85 (-23%) // -20% last Sun

= 25

 

Nailed it. Gimme between 23.5-26.5 and likely 24-25 range