Flop Weekend Thread: Top 5 Weekend Actuals - TSLOP2 $46.65M | Dark Phoenix $32.83M | Aladdin $24.68M | Godzilla KOTM $15.45M | Rocketman $13.82M

[Truckasaurus]

6 minutes ago, Maxmoser3 said:

 

2016 is a prime example of sequel fatigue,  oh my. TMNT 2, Alice 2, Star Trek: Beyond, Now You See Me 2, Independence Day: Resurgence, Ice Age 5, and kinda even X-Men:Apocalypse. Although Captain America: Civil War, Neighbors 2, Conjuring 2, Purge: Election Year, and Finding Dory were still hits.

I think you're misremembering things, because Neighbors 2 was absolutely not a hit, lol. It lost like almost a third of its audience from the original.

[MovieMan89]

I hope Aladdin gets a 100% sat increase, because it could beat DP with that. 

[MCKillswitch123]

6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

 Happy Feet Two and Lego Movie 2 both cratered from their predecessors. Pets 2 is hardly setting a precedent.

Neither Lego Movie 2 or Happy Feet Two dropped more than 50% from their predecessors on OW (even disregarding early sneak previews in Lego's case). This is probably the biggest 1st to 2nd movie OW drop since Alice 2.

Edited June 8, 2019 by MCKillswitch123

[Truckasaurus]

6 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Deadline just downgraded Phoenix's opening to 33.9M lmao

With every new update, it seems like Dark Phoenix keeps getting smaller and smaller. At this rate, tomorrow Deadline's just going to announce that the film's theatrical release has been scrapped and it's being released via VOD.

[Jay Beezy]

2 minutes ago, Truckasaurus said:

I think you're misremembering things, because Neighbors 2 was absolutely not a hit, lol. It lost like almost a third of its audience from the original.

He's probably saying it was a hit because it was probably low budget.

[a2k]

So DP didn't get 10m true Friday

 

5

9.2

11.0 (+20%)

8.3 (-25%)

= 33.5 (6.7 * previews)

 

The preview to OW multiplier would be 7x at 35 ow.

DOFP 11x (inflated Sun)

APOC 8x (inflated Sun)

DP 6.5-7x

 

APOC's Mem Day 4-day was 79.8. DP needs close to 2.3x multi even with 35 ow to get there.

Edited June 8, 2019 by a2k

[sfran43]

 

[MovieMan89]

DP is literally on Fabt4stic level now. Can’t believe they spent so much time throwing money at it for reshoots if they weren’t convinced they could at least make a decent film out of it. Hell, even Solo turned out to be a decent film likely due to the reshoots. 

 

Also, what kind of epic dumpster fire did it have to be before for what we got to be an improvement?!?!

Edited June 8, 2019 by MovieMan89

[sfran43]

 

[Truckasaurus]

1 minute ago, Jay Beezy said:

He's probably saying it was a hit because it was probably low budget.

Yeah, but if his argument is about sequel fatigue, then Neighbors 2 qualifies as well. That film's dropoff was massive for a sequel released only two years after the original.

[Avatree]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

DP is literally on Fabt4stic level now. Can’t believe they spent so much time throwing money at it for reshoots if they weren’t convinced they could at least make a decent film out of it. Hell, even Solo turned out to be a decent film likely due to the reshoots. 

Solo was decent despite the reshoots, not because of them.

 

Don't think there was any indication that the original film would be badly received, just that Lucasfilm werent happy with what it was.

[a2k]

		Movie	Distributor	Gross	Change	Thtrs.	Per Thtr.	Total Gross	Days
1	new	The Secret Life of Pets 2	Universal	$16,500,000		4,561	$3,618	$16,500,000	1
-	(2)	Godzilla: King of the Monsters	Warner Bros.	$4,200,000	+59%	4,108	$1,022	$67,257,097	8
-	(3)	Rocketman	Paramount Pictures	$3,760,000	+72%	3,610	$1,042	$40,258,756	8
-	(4)	MA	Universal	$2,290,000	+71%	2,816	$813	$27,238,075	8
-	(8)	Booksmart	Annapurna Pictures	$1,557,249	+311%	1,134	$1,373	$17,794,662	15
-	(7)	Pokémon: Detective Pikachu	Warner Bros.	$835,000	+20%	2,161	$386	$135,256,719	29
-	(9)	BrightBurn	Sony Pictures	$160,000	-34%	1,013	$158	$15,986,396	15
-	(12)	The Intruder	Sony Pictures	$85,000	+4%	306	$278	$34,721,180	36

[TalismanRing]

4 minutes ago, Avatree said:

Solo was decent despite the reshoots, not because of them.

 

Don't think there was any indication that the original film would be badly received, just that Lucasfilm werent happy with what it was.

Solo was 80% reshoots - that's a different movie

 

Edited June 8, 2019 by TalismanRing

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, Avatree said:

Solo was decent despite the reshoots, not because of them.

 

Don't think there was any indication that the original film would be badly received, just that Lucasfilm werent happy with what it was.

I’m talking about the reshoots of the reshoots. After they completely scrapped L&Ms film.

[snarkmachine]

1 minute ago, a2k said:

		Movie	Distributor	Gross	Change	Thtrs.	Per Thtr.	Total Gross	Days
1	new	The Secret Life of Pets 2	Universal	$16,500,000		4,561	$3,618	$16,500,000	1
-	(2)	Godzilla: King of the Monsters	Warner Bros.	$4,200,000	+59%	4,108	$1,022	$67,257,097	8
-	(3)	Rocketman	Paramount Pictures	$3,760,000	+72%	3,610	$1,042	$40,258,756	8
-	(4)	MA	Universal	$2,290,000	+71%	2,816	$813	$27,238,075	8
-	(8)	Booksmart	Annapurna Pictures	$1,557,249	+311%	1,134	$1,373	$17,794,662	15
-	(7)	Pokémon: Detective Pikachu	Warner Bros.	$835,000	+20%	2,161	$386	$135,256,719	29
-	(9)	BrightBurn	Sony Pictures	$160,000	-34%	1,013	$158	$15,986,396	15
-	(12)	The Intruder	Sony Pictures	$85,000	+4%	306	$278	$34,721,180	36

uh what is this supposed to be a chart of? where’s dark phoenix and aladdin

[a2k]

KOTM

100 dom, 140 ch, 35 j = 275 from 3 markets

400 ww seems dead now. 😢

 

DARKP

75 dom, 75 ch = 150 from 2 markets

wouldn't say 300 is a lock.

Edited June 8, 2019 by a2k

[a2k]

3 minutes ago, snarkmachine said:

uh what is this supposed to be a chart of? where’s dark phoenix and aladdin

the site will add them within a few minutes of studio reporting them

https://www.the-numbers.com/

[Jay Beezy]

3 minutes ago, snarkmachine said:

uh what is this supposed to be a chart of? where’s dark phoenix and aladdin

Official Friday estimates from the studios. Disney hasn't released theirs, yet.

Edited June 8, 2019 by Jay Beezy

[dxmatrixdt]

if Toy Story 4 makes more then this whole weekend combined, that would be a great gift for Father's Day, huh?

and a big win for Lady Gaga too!

Edited June 8, 2019 by Slave Animal Rights

[TalismanRing]

58 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

.....is there still anyone who still wants to argue that this wouldn't blow past a billion if 1) it wasn't released around so many other huge Disney releases, and 2) had a better marketing campaign? Put it out in July 2020 and it would hit BATB numbers. As is, with terrible marketing and a crowded market, it's still gonna potentially make a play for 900M WW.

 

Depressing that the most villified (for good reason) of the three big May releases will do more than Pikachu and KOTM combined.

Counterpoint, a lot of the great legs are people who were waiting and seeing.  If the movie opened bigger then the legs probably wouldn't be as good. 

 

SK is seeing week to week raises which wouldn't have  happened if it opened big - similar to some markets in Latin America.

 

Like Wonder Woman  - probably would have opened $30m+ higher if not for BVS and SS and the more muted marketing and had 3x legs instead of 4x legs.