Flop Weekend Thread: Top 5 Weekend Actuals - TSLOP2 $46.65M | Dark Phoenix $32.83M | Aladdin $24.68M | Godzilla KOTM $15.45M | Rocketman $13.82M

[sfran43]

 

[MovieMan89]

6 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

It will be perceived infinitely better by critics (35% higher ratings) and audiences will love it

Not convinced about either of those statements. The big reason TJB was received so well if because no one had seen something done like that before. Now we all have and critics aren't going to be as easily wowed by the evolution of the innovation (nor audiences). And critics will miss the human element live action needs (or photorealistic "animation" needs in this case). 

[TMP]

12 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

TLK is missing 3x, calling that now. Hard to imagine it being any better received than Aladdin, which is only go do around 3x, and it will for sure open higher. 

TLK will get like a 70% fresh and open to like $200m

[marveldcfox]

3 minutes ago, LawrenceBrolivier said:

Jupter Ascending vs John Carter

 

Tron Legacy vs Ready Player One

Oatmeal vs Gruel

Toast vs Saltine Crackers

 

Napping vs Snoozing

Done. Next.

[cdsacken]

That's your opinion I believe otherwise. 

[MovieMan89]

9 minutes ago, Menor said:

Aladdin was well received but its not like its hitting the max possible reception. That's like saying since CM was well-received than EG couldn't be any better received. I do agree with you that the opening will make a 3x multi much harder. However Aladdin will have significantly more than a 3x multi most likely.

Hope you're right. TS4 is about to be a juggernaut though, so not sure why it wouldn't hurt Aladdin's legs. Its weekend holds have been nothing spectacular with almost no big competition. Not sure if it can reach 300. 

Edited June 9, 2019 by MovieMan89

[Avatree]

I think Lion King could be very vulnerable to bad critic reviews. Critics are precisely the type of people who can dislike these straight remakes that add nothing and take away things from the originals. Read many of the reviews for Aladdin and they say that sort of thing, and Lion King looks to follow the original even closer.

 

Disney best post the cheques out early.

[Jonwo]

7 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

The OS results for Rocketman doesn't seem as strong compared to BR, but Paramount will likely make a profit due to the small budget

[cdsacken]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Hope you're right. TS4 is about to be a juggernaut though, so not sure why it wouldn't hurt Aladdin's legs. Its weekend holds have been nothing spectacular with almost no big competition. Not sure if it can reach 300. 

It's gonna be at what 260 next weekend? Close enough if not 300.  

[cdsacken]

2 minutes ago, Avatree said:

I think Lion King could be very vulnerable to bad critic reviews. Critics are precisely the type of people who can dislike these straight remakes that add nothing and take away things from the originals. Read many of the reviews for Aladdin and they say that sort of thing, and Lion King looks to follow the original even closer.

 

Disney best post the cheques out early.

Like they did for the Jungle Book? They were super harsh on End Game right? (Sarcasm as they handled it with kid gloves God bless them)

[ScoobyDoo21]

To be fair, Queen is a much popular group compared to John Elton, plus BR did its best to downplay Freddy's sexuality and sugar coating to play for the biggest possible audience while Rocketman doesn't

Edited June 9, 2019 by ScoobyDoo21

[VanillaSkies]

Aladdin is in for some great holds in the upcoming weeks.

Next weekend is Father's Day weekend. 

Last year solo increased 9% Sat - Sun and Infinity War stayed flat. 

 

Aladdin is the perfect Father's Day movie, so should benefit greatly. 

 

Then the weekend after that it will have double features with Toy Story 4, not to mention if TS4 is actually going to hit the 200 million opening weekend that some are trowing around, that is going to mean a lot of sold out showings and Aladdin would be the film most likely to get spillover. 

 

Couple that with strong summer weekday numbers, and I don't see how it misses 300 million at this point. 

325 million should be the target here now. 

Who would have though going into the summer that Aladdin would be one of the highest grossers of the summer

[Avatree]

1 minute ago, cdsacken said:

Like they did for the Jungle Book? They were super harsh on End Game right? (Sarcasm as they handled it with kid gloves God bless them)

 

What was Endgame a remake of? I don't recall the original animation.

[MovieMan89]

Seriously though, we need to start talking about the state of PG animated/family film multis. They have been the lowest by far I've ever seen them this year in the history of box office. If you don't believe me, the best animated multi of the year so far is Dragon Ball Z: Broly with a measly 3.1x. HTTYD3 actually missed 3x with amazing reviews and audience scores. That's unheard of for animation. Wonder Park not gonna hit 3x either. LEGO 2 just barely limped over 3x. Ugly Dolls getting an abysmal 2.2x multi. I mean I know that's a smaller animated film no one cared about, but even still, that's insane for animation. This has just been unheard of for animation multi patterns this year. We will see what SLOP and TS4 manage. 

[LawrenceBrolivier]

9 hours ago, That One Guy said:

 

Yes, except they stopped using the Touchstone label after 2015 when they realized they can get by on just making big budget/franchise movies.  I can almost guarantee you that most Fox movies they greenlight will either be existing franchises or potential franchise starters, and the Fox Searchlight label will likely not be used as much.  They already shut down Fox 2000, which was a good outlet for mid-budget films (many of which targeted adults).

I think the main question is why should most studios care about "adult movies" as we've been defining them when it seems pretty obvious the adults in question don't care much either. What are most adults going to? The teenager stuff! The superhero movies.... the young adult adaptations..... the horror movies..... the adults aren't going to theater at all because they're all like "I'll wait for Netflix." 

That's an exaggeration of course but not by much.... The reason other studios make more "adult" movies is because they're cheaper to make, and its the best way for them to compete against the Juggernaut of Disney. Disney is over there making billions with every swing, so we're just going to make a bunch of smaller movies instead and serve what audience isnt just waiting for Netflix. Its not even a question of competing realy.... but just survivel. I think a lot of these studios know its not even a competition anymore. They just dont want to go out of business or get bought. 

Speaking of Netflix Disney is now in control of adult stuff like Handmaid's Tale and Castle Rock on Hulu. If you want "adult" stuff from Disney its probably a good bet to look at its streaming networks. Disney has historically gone out of its way to have one if not two divisions dedicated solely to making grownup movies. Theyve got 2 now. 3 if you want to count Hulu. I bet they're going to give Ridley Scott what he wants to finish his Alien prequel trilogy for example

 

editing to add: Lion King is going to be the definition of critic-proof. 

Edited June 9, 2019 by LawrenceBrolivier

[cdsacken]

5 minutes ago, Avatree said:

 

What was Endgame a remake of? I don't recall the original animation.

My point being they weren't harsh on it at all. EG was part 2 of infinity war that got better reviews.

 

Jungle Book was a remake that got amazing reviews. Yes critics have been extra whiny lately but occasionally they still give rave reviews 

Edited June 9, 2019 by cdsacken

[Avatree]

3 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

Aladdin is in for some great holds in the upcoming weeks.

Next weekend is Father's Day weekend. 

Last year solo increased 9% Sat - Sun and Infinity War stayed flat. 

 

Aladdin is the perfect Father's Day movie, so should benefit greatly. 

 

Then the weekend after that it will have double features with Toy Story 4, not to mention if TS4 is actually going to hit the 200 million opening weekend that some are trowing around, that is going to mean a lot of sold out showings and Aladdin would be the film most likely to get spillover. 

 

Couple that with strong summer weekday numbers, and I don't see how it misses 300 million at this point. 

325 million should be the target here now. 

Who would have though going into the summer that Aladdin would be one of the highest grossers of the summer

You seem to be under the impression that Toy Story 4 is going to boost Aladdin. Regardless of any double features or alleged "spillover", its going to be hurt hugely as TS4 is big major competition. Most people if they're wanting to take their kids to the cinema will be choosing TS4. The impact on Aladdin vastly outweighs the small number of double features and sellout spillover.

By your logic of sellout spillover = benefit aladdin, if TS4 flopped then that would really hurt Aladdin. no you're wrong sorry.

 

 

[Avatree]

2 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

My point being they weren't harsh on it at all. EG was part 2 of infinity war that got better reviews.

Right okay. Think you may need to go back to school for Reading Comprehension.

 

I said, Critics can be prone to disliking the Disney live action remakes of animated films that don't add anything to the originals.

 

You said, "well critics liked Endgame."

 

Great argument.

[Maxmoser3]

Dark Phoenix may be lucky to match the opening weekend X-Men 2000 adjusted. Secret Life Of Pets 2 will do $155 million total, Toy Story 4’s opening weekend will outgross it. 

[Eric the Ape]

5 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Hope you're right. TS4 is about to be a juggernaut though, so not sure why it wouldn't hurt Aladdin's legs. Its weekend holds have been nothing spectacular with almost no big competition. Not sure if it can reach 300. 

Disney are masters when it comes to creative accounting, double features, fudging, etc. I'm not even talking about Wrinkle in Time.

 

Last year, Solo dropped around 37% on Incredibles 2 weekend, despite losing 1,000 theaters, and Incredibles opening to 182.7M. Granted it was also Father's Day weekend, but it's still a pretty solid drop considering all of the mentioned factors. Pirates 5 dropped 16% on Cars 3 weekend. Again, Father's Day, but considering last weekend saw a 51% drop, there was probably a bit of "creative accounting" in play. Alice Through the Looking Glass lost over 1,000 theaters, and saw two prior 50% drops before Finding Dory weekend. Yet it dropped only 24%, and that includes a Sunday drop of about 43%, so this didn't get any Father's Day bump. If anything, Toy Story coming out would only benefit Aladdin IMHO

 

But even then, if it follows Maleficent for the rest of its run, which it is following relatively closely to, that would indicate a 344.1M gross. I doubt that will happen, but if it follows, say, Pirates 5 for the rest of its run, that would be about 295.2M, which granted isn't 300, but still pretty close to it. It also has better WOM than Pirates, so it's really not as impossible as you make it out to be.