Flop Weekend Thread: Top 5 Weekend Actuals - TSLOP2 $46.65M | Dark Phoenix $32.83M | Aladdin $24.68M | Godzilla KOTM $15.45M | Rocketman $13.82M

[Valonqar]

people are smoking if they think that critics are going to have knives out for their Favebro. TLK is going to get at least 70 range on RT but likely higher. when they like a director they back them up through thick and thin unless we are talking such a steaming turd that they cannot defend without looking like shills. Still, garbage like AWIT and Lovely Bones that deserved 0% got away with 42% and 32% respectively cause of critics hard-on for Duverney and Jackson. these movies were pure trash not just mediocre or forgettable bad. trash. dumpster fire. yet even negative consensus went easy on them. Favereau is going to get much more than a pass. TLK is safe from critics take that to the bank. And it actually looks super cute at least parts with the kitten. 

[MovieMan89]

What did DP do OS this weekend? Can it beat Warcraft? Can probably make another 8-10 DOM. If it did another 9 DOM and 15 OS that would do it. 

[Eric Duncan]

1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

people are smoking if they think that critics are going to have knives out for their Favebro. TLK is going to get at least 70 range on RT but likely higher. when they like a director they back them up through thick and thin unless we are talking such a steaming turd that they cannot defend without looking like shills. Still, garbage like AWIT and Lovely Bones that deserved 0% got away with 42% and 32% respectively cause of critics hard-on for Duverney and Jackson. these movies were pure trash not just mediocre or forgettable bad. trash. dumpster fire. yet even negative consensus went easy on them. Favereau is going to get much more than a pass. TLK is safe from critics take that to the bank. And it actually looks super cute at least parts with the kitten. 

[Jonwo]

I think SLOP2 underperforming is a good wake up call for Illumination to not be complacent. I think unlike Pixar, they took their success for granted and not try and keep making better films.

 

Late Night did well in limited release, it's a solid film which showcases Emma Thompson and Mindy Kaling really well.

Edited June 9, 2019 by Jonwo

[LawrenceBrolivier]

People didn't avoid Dumbo because of the bad reviews. They didn't avoid Pete's Dragon because of the good reviews. They didn't go to either movie because it didn't look good and nobody really cared about those IPs. 

They gave Aladdin mediocre reviews and it didn't matter because Fresh Prince + Aladdin was all they needed. They're going to Lion King no matter what a critic says because to so many folks it's "Live Action" which means its automatically better than a cartoon, its got Beyonce in it, and they love the Circle of Life.

 

Rotten Tomatoes isnt as important as we like to think it is, because most people going to the movies dont ever even look at it. Even when stuff is getting review-bombed there, when people are all involved in their conspiracy theories about sold out critics and shills and corrupt journalists, its like less than 1% of the audience responding, and maybe 5% of the audience looking at it. 95% of the rest of us buying tickets didnt even care enough to look. 

Edited June 9, 2019 by LawrenceBrolivier

[TwoMisfits]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

There was marketing, people just didn't care enough to shell out $12 per person. Simple as that.

Bingo - 100%.  I think a lot of these movies would have gone way higher at $5/person.  Wonder Park, a movie that wouldn't have made more than Missing Link or Ugly Dolls b/c it was the least star-powered and quality of the lot, somehow made more than double both (and almost triple DOM) b/c it picked a $5 price and ran with it for almost its entire run.  The other 2 stuck to full pricing and no deals...and flamed out accordingly.  There are lessons here, at least for family movies...price is a bigger and bigger driver in the industry, and needs to be considered and accommodated if you aren't the top...

[danhtruong5]

How much dollars left in the DOM tank for EG after this weekend? $15M ??

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, LawrenceBrolivier said:

People didn't avoid Dumbo because of the bad reviews. They didn't avoid Pete's Dragon because of the good reviews. They didn't go to either movie because it didn't look good and nobody really cared about those IPs. 

They gave Aladdin mediocre reviews and it didn't matter because Fresh Prince + Aladdin was all they needed. They're going to Lion King no matter what a critic says because to so many folks it's "Live Action" which means its automatically better than a cartoon, its got Beyonce in it, and they love the Circle of Life.

 

Rotten Tomatoes isnt as important as we like to think it is, because most people going to the movies dont ever even look at it. Even when stuff is getting review-bombed there, its like less than 1% of the audience responding, and maybe 5% of the audience looking at it. 95% of the rest of us buying tickets didnt even care enough to look. 

RT definitely had a stretch from like '13-'17 where it was becoming pretty important to box office success. But I think since ticket prices have finally evened out and even dropped a tad - and since critical opinion and audience opinion have been way different on several big movies in the past two years - people are trusting it less and it's losing its relevancy again. Starting to feel more like it did at the beginning of the decade, where it was mainly a lot of box office nerds like us that followed it and not casuals. 

Edited June 9, 2019 by MovieMan89

[ThomasNicole]

22 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Seriously though, we need to start talking about the state of PG animated/family film multis. They have been the lowest by far I've ever seen them this year in the history of box office. If you don't believe me, the best animated multi of the year so far is Dragon Ball Z: Broly with a measly 3.1x. HTTYD3 actually missed 3x with amazing reviews and audience scores. That's unheard of for animation. Wonder Park not gonna hit 3x either. LEGO 2 just barely limped over 3x. Ugly Dolls getting an abysmal 2.2x multi. I mean I know that's a smaller animated film no one cared about, but even still, that's insane for animation. This has just been unheard of for animation multi patterns this year. We will see what SLOP and TS4 manage. 

HTTYD was really hurt by CM... it dropped really bad on that weekend and never fully recovered 

[Valonqar]

4 minutes ago, LawrenceBrolivier said:

People didn't avoid Dumbo because of the bad reviews. They didn't avoid Pete's Dragon because of the good reviews. They didn't go to either movie because it didn't look good and nobody really cared about those IPs. 

They gave Aladdin mediocre reviews and it didn't matter because Fresh Prince + Aladdin was all they needed. They're going to Lion King no matter what a critic says because to so many folks it's "Live Action" which means its automatically better than a cartoon, its got Beyonce in it, and they love the Circle of Life.

 

Rotten Tomatoes isnt as important as we like to think it is, because most people going to the movies dont ever even look at it. Even when stuff is getting review-bombed there, when people are all involved in their conspiracy theories about sold out critics and shills and corrupt journalists, its like less than 1% of the audience responding, and maybe 5% of the audience looking at it. 95% of the rest of us buying tickets didnt even care enough to look. 

this. TLK is an IP that people care about and from their POV previews looks awesome. those who are hoping for a flop cause remake/expressionless/bad reviews/whatever else better brace themselves for a breakout. it's gonna be big. maybe not 2 billie big but it's gonna be big.

[MovieMan89]

For the record, I definitely wasn't saying Aladdin's holds have been bad. It can probably make it to 300, which is a good multi. I just expected a fantastic multi based on every anecdotal reaction I've heard, all the audience metrics online, and the complete implosion of every blockbuster released since. 

[ZeeSoh]

15 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

What did DP do OS this weekend? Can it beat Warcraft? Can probably make another 8-10 DOM. If it did another 9 DOM and 15 OS that would do it. 

Wont even be close. Warcraft did 433 WW, Dark Phoenix is likely to be 100m lower and perhaps even more lower

 

DP did 107m OS. Thats similar to Shazam which did 102.3 in its OW overseas. However Shazam actually did more Os-China than Phoenix did by about 10m. 

 

Shazam went on to make 223m OS. I’d say thats where DP seems to be heading as well. Add about 70-80 dom and it is in real danger of missing even 300m total. 

Edited June 9, 2019 by ZeeSoh

[LawrenceBrolivier]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

RT definitely had a stretch from like '13-'17 where it was becoming pretty important to box office success. 

I can see why it'd look that way but I dont know that I agree very much. The only time Rotten Tomatoes ever affects box office is if the consensus is really, really terrible. Even then that doesnt matter too much. Everyone hated Glass but that still made a lot of money.... relatively that is. Its simply not enough people looking at RT to make that big of a dent. It just seems more important than it is because the tiny % of us who do pay attention to it includes hacks churning out content for movie sites.... and THOSE dont get paid attention to as much as we like to think, either. Next time youre at a family dinner or a reunion or something, start talking to your favorite uncle about slashfilm or collider and watch as they look at you like you started speaking babylonian.  

 

[MovieMan89]

Just now, ZeeSoh said:

Wont even be close. Warcraft did 433 WW, Dark Phoenix is likely to be 100m lower and perhaps even more lower

 

DP did 107m OS. Thats similar to Shazam which did 102.3 in its OW overseas. However Shazam actually did more Os-China than Phoenix did by about 10m. 

 

Shazam went on to make 223m OS. I’d sat thats where DP seems to be heading as well. Add about 70-80 dom and it is in real danger of missing even 300m total. 

Lmao, I was talking about Pikachu. Believe me, I know Phoenix is toast, I'm one of the few here who said it could go as low as 30 this weekend. 

[Valonqar]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

HTTYD was really hurt by CM... it dropped really bad on that weekend and never fully recovered 

HTTYD is a franchise that lost a chunk of domestic audience after the first movie and never found the way to lure them back. From what I gathered in HTTYD treads and by looking at numbers, first movie was a WOM hit. it opened OK but then legged its way to over 200M dom. The sequel dropped considerably dom but increased considerably OS, so that movie became franchise's #1 WW even though the first remains #1 dom. the finale, however, dropped both dom and OS. CM may have hurt it somewhat dom, but it wasn't on the way to matching the first anyway, but more like matching the second. So CM or not, it isn't a franchise that grew outside of existing fandom. and such franchises are vulnerable to crossover competition that's positioned as an event (which CM was).

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, ZeeSoh said:

Wont even be close. Warcraft did 433 WW, Dark Phoenix is likely to be 100m lower and perhaps even more lower

 

DP did 107m OS. Thats similar to Shazam which did 102.3 in its OW overseas. However Shazam actually did more Os-China than Phoenix did by about 10m. 

 

Shazam went on to make 223m OS. I’d sat thats where DP seems to be heading as well. Add about 70-80 dom and it is in real danger of missing even 300m total. 

Think he means Detective Pikachu

[ZeeSoh]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Lmao, I was talking about Pikachu. Believe me, I know Phoenix is toast, I'm one of the few here who said it could go as low as 30 this weekend. 

Damn same acronyms!!!  😂

[jedijake]

I thought Aladdin was headed toward over $25 million? Oh well. I think it should hit $300 million but it will be a crawl.

 

But I think that the actuals will be a little higher.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, ZeeSoh said:

Damn same acronyms!!!  😂

True, but I thought the "needs 9m DOM and 15m OS to beat Warcraft" part would give it away lol. 

[Jonwo]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

True, but I thought the "needs 9m DOM and 15m OS to beat Warcraft" part would give it away lol. 

I think it’s doable certainly on the OS side,