Flop Weekend Thread: Top 5 Weekend Actuals - TSLOP2 $46.65M | Dark Phoenix $32.83M | Aladdin $24.68M | Godzilla KOTM $15.45M | Rocketman $13.82M

[TalismanRing]

 

1 hour ago, CoolEric258 said:

https://deadline.com/2019/06/dark-phoenix-bombs-at-the-box-office-reasons-why-1202629749/

Even though Dark Phoenix is the No. 1 winner around the globe with $140M...finance experts tell us that the tale of Jean Grey will burn out with an estimated $100M-$120M loss after ancillaries, off a combined production and P&A estimated cost of $350M+ (which includes reshoots).

 

And that's why Disney released it.  Otherwise it would have been a $200m loss

 

(though really that was already accounted for when they bought Fox)

 

Really doubtful about Disney and Fox combined spending $150m on P&A though.  This was a pretty muted released in terms of publicity even adding in the aborted attempts last year.

[That One Girl]

2 minutes ago, LawrenceBrolivier said:

I never said there wasn't an audience for adult-targeted films. I just said it was smaller. Stats seem to show most adults prefer to go to the teen-oriented films.... that doesn't mean adult-oriented films can't also break out. but a large % of grownups going to movies are mostly going to see stuff aimed more at kids and teens. 
 

 

Where are the stats for that?  I don't necessarily buy that most 40-60 year olds are lining up around the block to see superhero movies, or live-action Disney remakes.  I'm sure that some of them do, but if you were to ask someone in that age demographic what their favorite movie of the last few years was, it seems unlikely that they'll say Beauty and the Beast or Infinity War.  Something like Rocketman is something more explicitly targeted towards that demo.

[LawrenceBrolivier]

48 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

The difference between MK and Pokemon is that Pokemon has never been taken out of the spotlight. It's been a worldwide sensation since it's release and is still kicking very much till this day.

 

Plus Pokemon caters to all demographics, Mortal Kombat caters to mostly one demographic, males, teen/adult. 

exactly.... there is no way something as aggressively aimed specifically at teen boys like Mortal Kombat is going to make more than Pikachu... especially with an R rating.

To be frank, it's too ugly, gross, dumb, cheesey, and corny to appeal beyond its built in audience. That's why I said they had to make fun of themselves and make it a campy Deadpool-like cartoon in order to work. General audiences wont get on board otherwise. Mortal Kombat without self-parody is basically a dumber Batman v Superman. Mortal Kombat is cool as a video game because you're playing it. Mortal Kombat as a story is basically just a bunch of edgy Garbage Pail Kids stuck in a bad D and D campaign.

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Where are the stats for that?  I don't necessarily buy that most 40-60 year olds are lining up around the block to see superhero movies, or live-action Disney remakes.  I'm sure that some of them do, but if you were to ask someone in that age demographic what their favorite movie of the last few years was, it seems unlikely that they'll say Beauty and the Beast or Infinity War.  Something like Rocketman is something more explicitly targeted towards that demo.

Idk about the 40-60 age group specifically but Endgame's OW demographics were 54% under 25, 46% over 25. There are plenty of adults interested in CBMs.

[LawrenceBrolivier]

5 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Where are the stats for that?  I don't necessarily buy that most 40-60 year olds are lining up around the block to see superhero movies, or live-action Disney remakes. 

I dont understand why youre setting the bar for "adult" at 40-60... people are generally considered grownups way before then... and how big do you think the moviegoing audience in that age range really is? They dont have to line up around the block. They just have to go.

it seems weird to me that we wouldnt consider 25-50 as an "adult" demographic

Edited June 9, 2019 by LawrenceBrolivier

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

Idk about the 40-60 age group specifically but Endgame's OW demographics were 54% under 25, 46% over 25. There are plenty of adults interested in CBMs.

But how old is the question are those over 25. I can see 30 somethings or adults with children or teens being a driving factor, just have a hard time seeing 50 year olds excited.

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, LawrenceBrolivier said:

I dont understand why youre setting the bar for "adult" at 40-60... people are generally considered grownups way before then... and how big do you think the moviegoing audience in that age range really is? They dont have to line up around the block. They just have to go.

it seems weird to me that we wouldnt consider 25-50 as an "adult" demographic

Yup. Also I feel like Star Wars is an example of a tentpole franchise that has a very high adult appeal. TLJ's OW was 65% over 25 according to PostTrak.

[That One Girl]

Just now, LawrenceBrolivier said:

I dont understand why youre setting the bar for "adult" at 40-60... people are generally considered grownups way before then... and how big do you think the moviegoing audience in that age range really is? They dont have to line up around the block. They just have to go.

 

I used 40-60 because that seems like a pretty big age range of people that would be excluded by Disney’s strategy of tentpoles targeted exclusively for kids, teens and young adults.  I can even expand the range to 30-60 if you want, and while I’m sure that some people in their 30s are invested in superhero movies and Disney remakes, I can also assure you a good amount aren’t.  Sure, people are considered grown ups before then, but a 25 year old isn’t exactly the prime audience target for something like American Sniper or Rocketman.  My entire point is that mid budget adult targeted films aren’t something that can just be replaced by superhero movies, just because some grown ups see superhero movies.

[TwoMisfits]

I think we do need to break down adults when we talk adult appealing...

 

There are about 3 tiers of adult movie goers, 18-35, 35-55, 55+...not every adult skewing movie will hit all three tiers, and when folks start to talk adult movie, I think they normally mean the last 2 (vs an R rated horror, which goes for the 1st tier and maybe a little of the 2nd, if it's not Steven King:)...

 

EDIT: And the tiers are not exact, but rough divisions...

Edited June 9, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[Avatree]

yeah the only metric some people seem to use is o/u age 25. Not very helpful as vast majority of adults are over 25.

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

I used 40-60 because that seems like a pretty big age range of people that would be excluded by Disney’s strategy of tentpoles targeted exclusively for kids, teens and young adults.  I can even expand the range to 30-60 if you want, and while I’m sure that some people in their 30s are invested in superhero movies and Disney remakes, I can also assure you a good amount aren’t.  Sure, people are considered grown ups before then, but a 25 year old isn’t exactly the prime audience target for something like American Sniper or Rocketman.  My entire point is that mid budget adult targeted films aren’t something that can just be replaced by superhero movies, just because some grown ups see superhero movies.

Rocketman's OW had 45% under 30. I don't think that's even all that different from an adult-skewing tentpole franchise like SW. And even though Rocketman would have a higher percentage of older audiences than a CBM doesn't mean that it would have a higher number. Something like Infinity War or Endgame has a total gross so much higher that they would pull in a much higher number of older viewers than Rocketman. 

[CoolioD1]

Happy that, after seeing Dark Phoenix, I'll never have to see that goddamn men in black trailer again. 

[Avatree]

2 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

Happy that, after seeing Dark Phoenix, I'll never have to see that goddamn men in black trailer again. 

There's a simple solution, arrive at the cinema after the trailers.

[marveldcfox]

34 minutes ago, LawrenceBrolivier said:

exactly.... there is no way something as aggressively aimed specifically at teen boys like Mortal Kombat is going to make more than Pikachu... especially with an R rating.

To be frank, it's too ugly, gross, dumb, cheesey, and corny to appeal beyond its built in audience. That's why I said they had to make fun of themselves and make it a campy Deadpool-like cartoon in order to work. General audiences wont get on board otherwise. Mortal Kombat without self-parody is basically a dumber Batman v Superman. Mortal Kombat is cool as a video game because you're playing it. Mortal Kombat as a story is basically just a bunch of edgy Garbage Pail Kids stuck in a bad D and D campaign.

 

All they hve to do do is make a awrsome action packed movie with cool visuals/ effects with the mortal kombat song blaring...boom..500+ ww confirmed.

[TalismanRing]

7 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

I pointed out multiple outliers, and my point is that these movies do well when they're placed under the right circumstances to do well.  The issue is that studios aren't investing as many of their resources into allowing these types of movies to succeed, rather trying to launch the next franchise by rebooting old properties or making endless sequels to their movies that did well.  I can guarantee you if a studio gave a similar level of marketing to a mid-budget adult drama as they gave to, say, Shazam! or Detective Pikachu, it'd probably perform on par if not better than both of those (depending on how appealing the premise of the movie is).

No studio would ever devote $150m P&A to mid budget dramas.  That would be insane because it would be wasteful.  That level of marketing is used to reach 4 quadrants World Wide - used to advertise on kids shows, sports events, TV dramas and comedies etc. and advertise around the world.

 

Unless it's an Oscar contender/winner or has a O/S name lead most O/S markets aren't interested in US made dramas since most countries have their own.  Those that break out like Green Book do so on WOM and/or on the back of Oscar wins - not marketing.

 
The rise in marketing  expense and the usual lack of return is one of the main reasons we are getting fewer mid budget dramas and low budget wide releases.  Advertising for an Independent wide release starts at $20m - which is why instead most indie dramas are platform released so that WOM can supplement or replace part of the cost.  

 

Even with a planned slower roll out it can be expensive especially if the film is mid budget.  WB spent $50m plus on  P&A (itvspot in Variety claimed it spent $45m plus on just  U.S. TV advertising so P&A would be even higher)  for Affleck's Live By Night which had a $65m budget.  This is a film WB went all in.  It took a $75m write down on it after projecting ancillaries.  That loss was most likely more than it's probable upside in potential profits.

[CoolioD1]

Just now, Avatree said:

There's a simple solution, arrive at the cinema after the trailers.

the movie's out on friday and i'm going to the cinema in the next week so i think i'll be fine. i like the trailers most of the time. but occasionally theres that one bad trailer that just gets under my skin that the cinemas seem to put in front of every movie.

[LawrenceBrolivier]

17 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 I can even expand the range to 30-60 if you want, and while I’m sure that some people in their 30s are invested in superhero movies and Disney remakes, I can also assure you a good amount aren’t.  Sure, people are considered grown ups before then, but a 25 year old isn’t exactly the prime audience target for something like American Sniper or Rocketman.  My entire point is that mid budget adult targeted films aren’t something that can just be replaced by superhero movies, just because some grown ups see superhero movies.

But my point was that Disney isn't really replacing them, and in fact has always had at least 1 or 2 subsidiaries focused specifically on making them.... like they do now with Fox, Searchlight, and Hulu. My other point is that you're talking about a narrow range of moviegoers.... 40 to 60yr old people, and my question is how big a slice of the pie do you think that really is to justify someone like Disney changing their strategy significantly to appeal to them.... actually couldn't you argue that Disney buying Fox IS that exact change of strategy? Pixar was killing computer animation, so they bought pixar. Disney needed male demos, so they bought Marvel and Star Wars.... the "Grownup audience" you seem to be talking about is at home streaming for the most part. So Disney bought Fox and Hulu. 

 

More grownups who go out to the movies seem to prefer going to movies not specifically aimed directly at them. That doesnt mean the other grownups dont exist.... or that grownups begin at age 40 and everyone else is still a teenager of some sort.... but if youre wondering why movies aimed at 40 to 60yr olds dont get as much love as Avengers or Star Wars... the answer seems obvious. 

[Avatree]

2 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

the movie's out on friday and i'm going to the cinema in the next week so i think i'll be fine. i like the trailers most of the time. but occasionally theres that one bad trailer that just gets under my skin that the cinemas seem to put in front of every movie.

If you're going to the cinema this week then who's to say you are safe from the MIB trailer? Fingers crossed for you hun.

[That One Girl]

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 No studio would ever devote $150m P&A to mid budget dramas.  That would be insane because it would be wasteful.  That level of marketing is used to reach 4 quadrants World Wide - used to advertise on kids shows, sports events, TV dramas and comedies etc. and advertise around the world.

 

 

It was a hypothetical.  Obviously a studio isn't going to spend 150M in advertising Rocketman.  The point was that all a studio needs to do is devote more time/money to marketing a movie aimed more at adult moviegoers, and it'll hit.  There are plenty of examples where this has been the case (just a few months ago, Bohemian Rhapsody and A Star is Born are prime examples of this.  Hell, ASIB cost 110M in P&A and Bohemian Rhapsody cost 121M according to Deadline, which isn't too far off from 150M).

[MovieMan89]

12 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

Happy that, after seeing Dark Phoenix, I'll never have to see that goddamn men in black trailer again. 

OH SNAP!