Flop Weekend Thread: Top 5 Weekend Actuals - TSLOP2 $46.65M | Dark Phoenix $32.83M | Aladdin $24.68M | Godzilla KOTM $15.45M | Rocketman $13.82M

[ZeeSoh]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

True, but I thought the "needs 9m DOM and 15m OS to beat Warcraft" part would give it away lol. 

Lol I only read the first part, saw DP and thought u were talking about Phoenix. Though the comparison with Warcraft (another video game movie) should have keyed me in. 

 

Anyways, now people know where Dark Phoenix is heading also. 

[MovieMan89]

I have it from a good source that sabotaging DP for OW so it would be really low was the plan all along for Dark Phoenix. Now the real marketing will begin so the movie can rise like a Phoenix from the ashes to a 10-20x multi. Super revolutionary marketing tactics coming, stay tuned. 

[TwoMisfits]

On family movies...let me not beat a dead horse...oh crap, let me do it anyway:)...

 

Matinees in major metros are $12.50/person.  Evening shows are $15+/person.  Most families would be 4 people for an animated movie.  

 

Now, then you are spending $50-60 just to get in the door...and then adding on the large popcorn and large soda for another $20, you've got $70-$80 for a movie.  That's not a sustainable number for a family to go to more than 2-3 movies/year as an "event" vs seeing every single movie that comes down the pipe.

 

The family movies that have done well are the Disney ones, which have an enormous adult and old person fan base...and the ones that did "better than expected" are the ones who took the "price plunge" and gave that family of 4 a chance to go for $40 or less ($20 on tickets and $20 on food).  Folks don't mind dropping a $20...but they do mind dropping $80.  $80 can get 2 outings to a trampoline park, a run through an escape room, 4 kid outings to a bounce house, 2 outings to a minor league baseball game, 2 evening bowling outings with shoes, etc...movies start not comparing nearly as well at the current price point when there are so many other options at that price point or less...and the movies will be available with just a little patience (which the other items won't)...

 

The movie subscriber base in the US that started in 2017 has been limited solely to adults...and that's had an effect, one that I think has grown...it changes the worth of movies to the adult base that would have to buy the kid films...b/c the kids always are full price, even if the family has movie subscribers...

 

There is gonna either have to be more discount schemes or flat price reductions for these non-Disney movies to stay relevant in the marketplace and not go the way of rom-coms...I mean, maybe PG and G movies get the $5 price every weekday - maybe stretch out the discount Tuesday effect and that way, weekends could give even more showings and screens to PG-13 and R tentpoles and adult films...

[SteveJaros]

It wasn't a flop for Aladdin, which steamed right along exceeding expectations. The only issue is whether it reaches $300m DOM, which would be stupendous and absolutely no shame if it doesn't.

 

As for Dark Phoenix, this will lose a ton of money, Lone Ranger level losses. But from a studio POV it kind of slips through the cracks of the Disney-FOX purchase. FOX actually spent the $220m or whatever it cost to make it, but they don't exist any more. Disney is the official owner now, but they spent virtually no money on it. 

 

It's a flop that really doesn't hurt any studio financially, though of course if there were individual producers who put up money in partnership with a studio they are taking a real bath. 

Edited June 9, 2019 by SteveJaros

[titanic2187]

After multiple misfire from initial buzz, the supposed lesson for the studio is, don't make an forgettable movie that awfully received by the critics and audience alike.

 

But the lesson that studio continues to feed themselves is, don't release the movie in a competitive month.    

[ZeeSoh]

25 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

What did DP do OS this weekend? Can it beat Warcraft? Can probably make another 8-10 DOM. If it did another 9 DOM and 15 OS that would do it. 

Its possible but difficult imo. OS it did about 9.5 for the entire week. It also fell about 50% OS this weekend. As for Dom it made about 6.5m this past week and even domestically its not holding that well with weekly drop this week around 50’s. 

 

If it continues these 50’s drops then it will make a further 16m which will be short 8m or so from Warcraft

[straggler]

1 minute ago, titanic2187 said:

After multiple misfire from initial buzz, the supposed lesson for the studio is, don't make an forgettable movie that awfully received by the critics and audience alike.

 

But the lesson that studio continues to feed themselves is, don't release the movie in a competitive month.    

I don't think anyone goes into it wanting to make a bad film. 

[John Marston]

Interestingly of Disney hadn’t bought Fox they probably would have done something to get Endgame to pass Avatar but now that they own Avatar they probably don’t care as much 

[Avatree]

12 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Its possible but difficult imo. OS it did about 9.5 for the entire week. It also fell about 50% OS this weekend. As for Dom it made about 6.5m this past week and even domestically its not holding that well with weekly drop this week around 50’s. 

 

If it continues these 50’s drops then it will make a further 16m which will be short 8m or so from Warcraft

 

No video game will reach the Height of WARCRAFT any time soon.

 

Hey i actually need to make a club about this, "No video game film adaptation over Warcraft EVER"

 

Edited June 9, 2019 by Avatree

[DisposedData]

37 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

For the record, I definitely wasn't saying Aladdin's holds have been bad. It can probably make it to 300, which is a good multi. I just expected a fantastic multi based on every anecdotal reaction I've heard, all the audience metrics online, and the complete implosion of every blockbuster released since. 

You were saying it was going to have less than a 3x multiplier. That would mean it would have to only just match Solo's raw gross from this point forward which isn't going to happen. It is going to definitely exceed that. 290m is the floor at this point.

[OncomingStorm93]

18 minutes ago, straggler said:

I don't think anyone goes into it wanting to make a bad film. 

Some people do go into it with a bad vision they think people will like

[Mr Impossible]

25 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I have it from a good source that sabotaging DP for OW so it would be really low was the plan all along for Dark Phoenix. Now the real marketing will begin so the movie can rise like a Phoenix from the ashes to a 10-20x multi. Super revolutionary marketing tactics coming, stay tuned. 

[cdsacken]

14 minutes ago, Avatree said:

 

No video game will reach the Height of WARCRAFT any time soon.

 

Hey i actually need to make a club about this, "No video game film adaptation over Warcraft EVER"

 

Warcraft probably does 500 if it was made earlier. They waited too long

[Avatree]

Just now, cdsacken said:

Warcraft probably does 500 if it was made earlier. They waited too long

I think they wait a few years time and do a re-release, then this club will be successful:

 

 

[dxmatrixdt]

4 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

 

 

But Hellboy, The Hustle, Pom Poms, Tolkien, The Sun Is Also a Star, Uglydolls, Brightburn, The Best Of Enemies, A Dogs Journey - not a lot of quality there.  

 

ehh, i think they have the potential to be 4/5 star films or greater.

i bet i can spend a month trying to watch all these and get them all 83% or better from my little reference in the signature

[Geo1500]

7 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Warcraft probably does 500 if it was made earlier. They waited too long

 

Wait for Mortal Kombat.. I am gonna be bold HERE and say 1B for MK

Edited June 9, 2019 by Geo1500

[cdsacken]

Damn bold predictions up in here. I like it!

[Krissykins]

41 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:

Disney is the official owner now, but they spent virtually no money on it. 

 

Who paid for the worldwide P&A? 

[Sunny Max]

29 minutes ago, Geo1500 said:

 

Wait for Mortal Kombat.. I am gonna be bold HERE and say 1B for MK

LOLLLL Bold prediction .. Will see   

Edited June 9, 2019 by Sunny Max

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 PM, DP has picked up the pace a little and I think it has a chance to match the estimate, I'll say 7-9. Pets 2 13-15.