Hobbs & Shaw Weekend Thread: 60.8M OW (6th-best August debut), 180.8M WW | TLK 38.2, OUATIH 20, FFH 7.7, TS4 7.1, Farewell 2.4

[RealLyre]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Still think this is a lackluster opening if previews are any indication. I understand it's not easy for movies to hit 100+ OWs like Disney makes it look, but at the same time this non-Disney crop this year has just done abysmally. Had to rely on sleeper hits like Us and JW3 to be the big ones, movies that didn't even touch 200m. It's a dire outlook right now. 

WB's 200M grosser (and maybe 300M) will be IT Chapter 2 and Joker. Sony has FFH and Jumanji sequel i guess. so that's 4 non-Disney 200M grossers this year. down from 8 last year.

[Legion Again]

2 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

WB's 200M grosser (and maybe 300M) will be IT Chapter 2 and Joker. Sony has FFH and Jumanji sequel i guess. so that's 4 non-Disney 200M grossers this year. down from 8 last year.

Joker is just a maybe, and FFH counts for half at best.

[titanic2187]

7 minutes ago, boxofficeth said:

Two main factors - Marvel and China, I guess?

I am pretty sure all HP movies(except maybe PoA) and the entire LOTR trilogy and original spiderman trilogy plus POTC 3 and Transformers 2, SW3 and Finding Nemo or Shrek 2 & 3 will break 1b if they have that kind of international exposure in 2000s like nowadays.

[RealLyre]

2 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Joker is just a maybe, and FFH counts for half at best.

Disney had nothing to do with FFH. Sony provided the distribution and funding and it was Marvel Studios who produced it so I'm not sure why you'd need to call it a half non-Disney movie. 


and if Joker gets the award buzz that we're hearing, it would have a good chance of hitting 200M imo

[Legion Again]

2 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

Disney had nothing to do with FFH. Sony provided the distribution and funding and it was Marvel Studios who produced it so I'm not sure why you'd need to call it a half non-Disney movie. 


and if Joker gets the award buzz that we're hearing, it would have a good chance of hitting 200M imo

which is literally Disney...

[Blaze Heatnix]

That old Deadline ( 4.5 million ) preview...

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

Disney had nothing to do with FFH. Sony provided the distribution and funding and it was Marvel Studios who produced it so I'm not sure why you'd need to call it a half non-Disney movie. 


and if Joker gets the award buzz that we're hearing, it would have a good chance of hitting 200M imo

Well...  Marvel Studios is Disney

[RealLyre]

Just now, Thanos Legion said:

which is literally Disney...

not really? Marvel Studios didn't produce that movie for Disney. 

 

that's like calling every Nolan film a half WB film cus he usually works for them. 

[Mekanos]

21 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Still think this is a lackluster opening if previews are any indication. I understand it's not easy for movies to hit 100+ OWs like Disney makes it look, but at the same time this non-Disney crop this year has just done abysmally. Had to rely on hard Disney counter programming R rated films like Us and JW3 to be the big ones, movies that didn't even touch 200m. The non-R Disney blockbuster outlook couldn't be more dire. 

I mean this is about what I expected, Fate opened to around 90 on a holiday weekend and that was already a big drop off from Furious 7, I've been saying 50-70 range for a while. Outside of Furious 7 there just isn't a big clamor for these movies domestically, they do fine but they're not going to set the BO on fire. 

[harrisonisdead]

2 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

not really? Marvel Studios didn't produce that movie for Disney. 

 

that's like calling every Nolan film a half WB film cus he usually works for them. 

If WB physically owned Christopher Nolan, then yeah.

[RealLyre]

so FFH is a half disney film that they don't even have the rights to put it on their streaming service. wild 

 

 

[sfran43]

 

[Legion Again]

12 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

not really? Marvel Studios didn't produce that movie for Disney. 

 

that's like calling every Nolan film a half WB film cus he usually works for them. 

Marvel Studios isn’t some independent contractor that “usually works for” Disney. They’re literally owned by and 100% a component of The Walt Disney Company. It’s the same as if Sony had WDAS make a HT4 or something.

[MovieMan89]

30 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

WB's 200M grosser (and maybe 300M) will be IT Chapter 2 and Joker. Sony has FFH and Jumanji sequel i guess. so that's 4 non-Disney 200M grossers this year. down from 8 last year.

I think counting FFH is cheating because it’s only big due to being part of Disney’s biggest franchise. And Joker is not in any way a lock for 200, especially if it ends up R. I think it will hit that personally, but it’s totally up in the air as of now. 

[xiazhi]

1 hour ago, efialtes76 said:

Star Wars, Potterverse and MCU. 

and how are their previews?

[xiazhi]

19 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

not really? Marvel Studios didn't produce that movie for Disney. 

 

that's like calling every Nolan film a half WB film cus he usually works for them. 

Disney owns Marvel while WB doesn't own Nolan. Simple like that.

[Legion Again]

6 minutes ago, xiazhi said:

and how are their previews?

43M, 8.8M, 10.2M in 2017, 2016, and 2014 respectively.

[sfran43]

 

[vafrow]

I don't think there's any guarantee that IT2 crosses $200M. The kid version of the story is the more interesting one. It's probably going to be in that range, the first one came out of nowhere, that it could be a flash in the pan success that doesn't bring people back. 

 

In terms of other studios producing hits, it has been bad this year, but I'm more curious what happens next year. I think there's an argument that Disney lined up so many event films this year, that audiences are not making it out as their theatre outings are spoken for. 

 

Next year is a different story, and if you see similar lack of breakout films, I think some soul searching will be needed in the major studios. 

 

The worst case scenario is if the Disney films perform at lower levels like you'd expect from the drop in franchise recognition (Pixar films like Coco success, Black widow /Eternals around Antman, Mulan more line Dumbo), and the other studios also don't prodice the big blockbuster hits, then there's much bigger concerns about the industry. 

[Ocho]

39 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

so FFH is a half disney film that they don't even have the rights to put it on their streaming service. wild 

 

 

But....

 

Disney owns 100% Merchandising rights to Spiderman.