Hobbs & Shaw Weekend Thread: 60.8M OW (6th-best August debut), 180.8M WW | TLK 38.2, OUATIH 20, FFH 7.7, TS4 7.1, Farewell 2.4

[Webslinger]

I think The Lion King's slight expansion speaks to just how empty the market is outside of the top films. It doesn't say anything about Disney's perception of how the film has been playing.

[Porthos]

44 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

That's off the deep end even for her.

 

For a woman who's pretty brash and opinionated and has made it big in geekdom in a predominately boys club she's also  strangely retrograde and sexist in her opinions about actresses and female characters.   For example - her recent hot take about the Mulan trailer was complaining that they're making Mulan  too special when she's just one of the guys.  HUH????

Some might see that as WHY she's made it big in a "predominately boys club". 

 

Nothing quite like being told by someone "You know what, all those implicit biases you hold and get criticized for?  RELAX, you're completely right and they're not biases at all.  Take it from me, all those folks complaining are full of crap."

 

===

 

Okay, that's probably slightly unfair, as I don't think she started with that schtick.  But it could certainly explain why she stays popular in a certain corner of the YouTube/Twitter eco-system.  Or has even gained in popularity. She knows her audience and has decided to pander to stick with it.

Edited August 3, 2019 by Porthos

[tawasal]

40 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

That's off the deep end even for her.

 

For a woman who's pretty brash and opinionated and has made it big in geekdom in a predominately boys club she's also  strangely retrograde and sexist in her opinions about actresses and female characters.   For example - her recent hot take about the Mulan trailer was complaining that they're making Mulan  too special when she's just one of the guys.  HUH????

That seems to be the way to get into the incel world of the youtube community.  Ever since Ghostbusters (2016), it has been the way to attract subs to your youtube or other platforms. They seem to be loud minority and will you provide you with views and subs. 

[tawasal]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Some might see that as WHY she's made it big in a "predominately boys club". 

 

Nothing quite like being told by someone "You know what, all those implicit biases you hold and get criticized for?  RELAX, you're completely right and they're not biases at all.  Take it from me, all those folks complaining are full of crap."

 

===

 

Okay, that's probably slightly unfair, as I don't think she started with that schtick.  But it could certainly explain why she stays popular in a certain corner of the YouTube/Twitter eco-system.  Or has even gained in popularity. She knows her audience and has decided to pander to stick with it.

There are a lot of them out there, that started out differently, that just jumped on this circa 2016 and have stayed on it, because it's the only that is generating views and subs. Controversy sells. 

[tawasal]

1 hour ago, CoolEric258 said:

That's why I love Dan Murrell from Fandom Entertainment. He has plenty of experience with box office as is, knows what to say, how to say it, backs his work up with plenty of research, and has little bias in his reporting. He's a talent.

Wasn't he the same guy that did Captain Marvel Box Office Myths? 

[Alex SciChannel]

I thought this was a thread about Hobbs and Shaw's weekend Box office.

 

Can we stop talking about youtubers and start talking about Hobbs and Shaw's raw american moolah and predictions/estimates.

[Inceptionzq]

9 minutes ago, tawasal said:

There are a lot of them out there, that started out differently, that just jumped on this circa 2016 and have stayed on it, because it's the only that is generating views and subs. Controversy sells. 

A lot of these Youtubers are comedic because they’re so ridiculous

[Eric Burnett]

10 minutes ago, tawasal said:

Wasn't he the same guy that did Captain Marvel Box Office Myths? 

If you're talking about the video where he debunks them, then yes.

[tawasal]

5 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

If you're talking about the video where he debunks them, then yes.

Yeah that video. Great video about the problems in spreading misinformation (false information). Don't really the difference between those two. English isn't my 1st or 2nd language. 

[Maxmoser3]

If you ain’t gonna talk box office then there’s the classic conversation thread.

decent for Hobbs & Shaw. Lion King will come back to the top on August 16-18. 

[tawasal]

3 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

The digital release sliced off it's legs.  No matter, it's passed $857m and I'm petty so Mendelson being wrong again is what really matters.

 

But a $857 million finish is out of the question - Scott Mendelson

 

Remember when he didn't know why Monday of may 20th was weird. 

Quote

Avengers: Endgame earned another $2.878 million on Tuesday, actually dropping 9% from Monday’s $3.16 million gross. To be fair, yesterday was weird in term of day-to-day holds, as John Wick: Chapter 3 only jumped 14% from Monday ($6.5 million for a $69 million five-day cume) and Pikachu jumped only 10% for a $99.5 million 16-day total. Only A Dog’s Journey got the conventional Tuesday bump (many theater chains offer discount tickets on Tuesday), rising 44% on Tuesday for a $1 million gross and a still-underwhelming $9.731 million five-day cume.

 

[TwoMisfits]

4 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

There are 4 movies with significantly lower PTA below them on so many screens and in 1k-2k theaters that even with 4 wide openers  I don't see the drops hitting 1,000.  700 is probably the high end. TLK will lose screens as will H&S and  OUATIH.  

 

TS4 targets adults as well as families so Dora really isn't a direct hit against it and it's been showing it's going to have long late legs.

 

But those are already gone from small and midsize places...not that I have the numbers, but I bet movie theaters are split about 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 between small (8 or less screen), midsize (9-12 screens), and large (13 screens+)...at small screens, the drops have to happen - there's just too many openers unless those screens pass on almost everything...at midsize, it's 50-50 whether they drop Aug 9...or wait til Aug 16 b/c again, unless they pass on most, 10 openers plus H&S, OUATIH, and TLK will also max them out...at large screens, yes Spidey and Toys will still have long terms, but you get under 2000 theaters when you are talking that size...

[junkshop36]

Murell is great!

 

I never miss an episode of Charting with Dan that he does every Monday. The guy really does his research when it comes to box office. 

 

 

Going to see H&S in a couple of hours. 

[LawrenceBrolivier]

I need to look into this Murrell person it sounds like. Thanks everyone! 

[Ryan Reynolds]

wow people love cgi animal movies, i'm sure Kathleen Kennedy is talking to Favreau about a photo realistic cgi remake of The Battle for Endor

[LawrenceBrolivier]

Not really box office news, but pretty important studio news...

https://variety.com/2019/biz/news/cbs-viacom-tentative-management-structure-bakish-ianniello-1203289764/

CBS and Viacom are getting back together, it seems... This is probably a good thing, especially since Paramount could use the extra help and backing. But it might also mean that CBS All Access suddenly becomes an interesting streaming option... especially if they get access to Viacom's TV output. If CBS and Viacom become a single company again, All Access would potentially have all of Paramount's library, and offerings from MTV, BET, Nickelodeon, and Comedy Central. 

 

I think it also would allow for Kelvin Timeline Star Trek stuff to show up on the TV shows now? 

[OdinSon2k14]

5 hours ago, Geo1500 said:

 

Grace Randolph is great and I don't know why you have her on that list. She is great

HE-LLO! Welcome to movie money 😂😂

[The Futurist]

8 hours ago, LawrenceBrolivier said:

Avengers beating Avatar really did reveal how many of these writers.... despite their protestations on social media.... go into their articles with a set agenda. Mendelson pretends to write an analysis column but what he's really doing is trying to justify what he wants to happen with the numbers... 

Most of his articles are "here's what I want to happen and here's the bad argument designed to make you believe that's how it is...." He never wanted the record to drop and when it became more and more likely he responded by finding more and more stuff to nitpick... for a professional box-office writer he seems to have a problem letting go of the idea that certain movies "deserve" success more than others...

You discovered what is "journalism" just today ?

If so, good moment of clarity.

 

[meriodejaneiro]

At this point, where do you see TLK heading on dom and ww charts/numbers?

 

Dom seems a 550-575M, so top11, ahead of TDK 535M/behind I2 608M, probably going top12 after TROS (or top13 if F2 increases a lot from F1). Seems safe to say TLK won't be below 535 (unless an enormous collapse happens) neither above 608 (unless unexpected legs happen).

 

Spoiler

DOMESTIC GROSSES

Rank Title(click to view) Studio Lifetime Gross Year^ 1 Star Wars: The Force Awakens BV $936,662,225 2015 2 Avengers: Endgame BV $857,190,335 2019 3 Avatar Fox $760,507,625 2009^ 4 Black Panther BV $700,059,566 2018 5 Avengers: Infinity War BV $678,815,482 2018 6 Titanic Par. $659,363,944 1997^ 7 Jurassic World Uni. $652,270,625 2015 8 Marvel's The Avengers BV $623,357,910 2012 9 Star Wars: The Last Jedi BV $620,181,382 2017 10 Incredibles 2 BV $608,581,744 2018 11 The Dark Knight WB $535,234,033 2008^

 

 

 

 

WW, I think TLK could go top6 ahead of JW 1,671B and behind IW 2,048B (here I don't dare to say wether TROS or F2 will outgross it WW). Deadline says in some 10 markets H&S is not opening #1, assuming TLK is keeping that position (on weekend 3 of its run) in such countries like Mexico, Brazil, UK and some other big european countries (could be Spain, France, Germany). Those are big money maker countries, so we could expect good legs on them for the rest of the summer.

 

Till last Sunday, Ch was 114M, Os-ch was 498. Os-Ch, TLK opened at 254 ow, then added 260 for the week (117 mon-thu + 143 fss). Considering a 45% drop week-to-week, on actual markets, it could climb as high as 930M+ (China included). But since Deadline assumes this weekend TLK is holding pretty good against H&S, maybe that 45% drop could be less (40%), what would put it in track of a 1B intl. (minus Japan and Italy).

 

Japan let's say it adds 70M (though it could climb to 100 given coming Oboon festival, which boost Japanese box office a lot). Italy could go between TJB 12M and BATB 23M. That's a possible 120M extra. 

 

So TLK could split into a 550 dom + 1B ww for a 1,550 WW on a low end (top7, behind JW), or could go 575 dom + 1,1B+ for a 1,675B ww on a high end (top6, ahead of JW 1,672B). 

 

I expect TLK this Sunday to land on the 430 dom + 755/768 intl (-45%/-40%). A bit below 1,2B ww.

 

Spoiler

WORLDWIDE GROSSES

Rank	Title	Studio	Worldwide	Domestic / %		Overseas / %		Year^
1	Avengers: Endgame	BV	$2,793.9	$857.2	30.7%	$1,936.7	69.3%	2019
2	Avatar	Fox	$2,789.7	$760.5	27.3%	$2,029.2	72.7%	2009^
3	Titanic	Par.	$2,187.5	$659.4	30.1%	$1,528.1	69.9%	1997^
4	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	BV	$2,068.2	$936.7	45.3%	$1,131.6	54.7%	2015
5	Avengers: Infinity War	BV	$2,048.4	$678.8	33.1%	$1,369.5	66.9%	2018
6	Jurassic World	Uni.	$1,671.7	$652.3	39.0%	$1,019.4	61.0%	2015
7	Marvel's The Avengers	BV	$1,518.8	$623.4	41.0%	$895.5	59.0%	2012
8	Furious 7	Uni.	$1,516.0	$353.0	23.3%	$1,163.0	76.7%	2015
9	Avengers: Age of Ultron	BV	$1,405.4	$459.0	32.7%	$946.4	67.3%	2015

 

 

[terrestrial]

12 hours ago, LawrenceBrolivier said:

Avengers beating Avatar really did reveal how many of these writers.... despite their protestations on social media.... go into their articles with a set agenda. Mendelson pretends to write an analysis column but what he's really doing is trying to justify what he wants to happen with the numbers... 

Most of his articles are "here's what I want to happen and here's the bad argument designed to make you believe that's how it is...." He never wanted the record to drop and when it became more and more likely he responded by finding more and more stuff to nitpick... for a professional box-office writer he seems to have a problem letting go of the idea that certain movies "deserve" success more than others...

 

11 hours ago, TMP said:

No he's not. This site's hate boner for Mendelson is weird.

 

10 hours ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

What’s with the weird Mendelson hate when Armond White or Grace Randolph exists?

 

10 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

They don’t “contribute” in Forbes as supposedly box office knowledgeable people.

That, plus in addition:

if you read a lot of his articles, he mentions quite often being a Nolan and a DC fan, prefers Avatar / Cameron way over MCU... is one of those who rather often says certain movies do not deserve.... and so on.

 

He campaigns for more female lead movies, female directors and so on. Human rights,... Lots of in my POV very positive goals I share too.

He retweets a lot of interesting to me tweets that I guess some of the US members might consider either leftish (if that is considered good or bad ... POV) or cultural 'better' than event movies, quality.....

= I think he sees himself as open minded, pro... above the average persons/people, someone to applaud to for his support...., to say it over the top: an aware and open human being, engaged to better the world and such.

The reason I mention comes later (see not open minded).

 

Funny is, how he reasons, when he gets into rants about why audience does not click with e.g. the new version of Tomb Raider,... something he wants to see ending successfully.

 

Like the GA has to click as finally a female lead, and how he gets ~ affronted if they do not do so.

Ignoring completely why his chosen titles are not good movies to further the female lead, in this case, action movies 'idea'.

E.g. in the new Tomb Raider movie the lead behaves like an immature brat, gets into trouble 90% based on behaving like a foot to ground tapping 9y old.

On one hand he writes about wanting strong females, but if its about per movie reactions, he misses the character again following too often seen paths, like not being mature (either in age, behaving, or e.g. having lived in reclusion or...), special lineage or why-ever else they too often do not use people arising out of the pool of the average adult (non virgin, non priest/goddess on a platform, non why-ever an old enough person is still not mature) women.

 

Forbes stands for a certain level in reputation, his rants, comments,.. not only about MCU movies, but also writing for those kind of movies (see Tomb Raider example, or Alita,....) include the same swipes, twisted reasoning, wordings,... a lot of the more fanatic DC, Cameron,... members here use.

Exception:

if a movie is deemed cultural important, supports minorities,.. and such (but even then he has sometimes a few rather strange wordings in his 'articles')

= that is not the style matching what 'Forbes' implies

 

And as such he shows something else I see in a lot of people who think they are above other in especial cultural sense:

if they show such kind of behaviour or...:

they are at least as closed minded as the people they are writing against. namely if its about people thinking / reacting not like 'planed', see what LawrenceBrolivier wrote (btw, agreeing fully to that).

 

= I think as it got so obvious the last 2 years = that's the main reason people react now way stronger than in the past.

 

The only reason I still follow him at Twitter are his retweets (I should look for someone else who does similar themes and sources), beside often enough sharing which movie I prefer over the other (but definitive not in Tomb Raiders case, a example I love to pick as it has nothing to do with MCU/DC, Nolan nor Cameron) and more.