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Eric the Minion

IT: CHAPTER TWO WEEKEND THREAD | 91M DOM, 94M OS, 185M WW | Read first post for rules

By Eric the Minion, in Numbers and Data

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RealLyre Box Office Gold

RealLyre

Posted
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

 

 

A 90M opening this weekend would be behind 75 OWs, so I’d say it’s approximately as strong/impressive as opening behind 75 other OWs in another year — whether that be 2014 (69.3M), 2009 (54M), 2004 (40M), 2002 (29.5M), or 2024 (~125M? Maybe?).

why are you comparing PG-13 movies with R? they don't have the same audience. 

 

the growth in PG-13 market is different than the growth in the more adult R-rated films. 

 

 

edit: cus by that logic a 90M OW for an R-rated movie is the equivalent of a 208M OW for a PG-13 (both 5th place in R and PG-13)

Edited by RealLyre
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Eric the Minion Global Phenomenon

Eric the Minion

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https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-forecast-terminator-dark-fate-plus-a-big-joker-update/

 

8-Week Forecast

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Range 3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
9/13/2019 The Goldfinch $6,000,000 – $11,000,000 $8,000,000 -11% $25,000,000 -14% 2,500 Warner Bros.
9/13/2019 Hustlers $23,000,000 – $33,000,000 $28,500,000 6% $77,000,000 6% 3,100 STX
9/20/2019 Ad Astra $16,000,000 – $21,000,000 $18,000,000 -10% $58,500,000 -10% 3,500 Fox
9/20/2019 Downton Abbey $16,000,000 – $21,000,000 $18,000,000 20% n/a   3,000 Universal
9/20/2019 Rambo: Last Blood $20,000,000 – $25,000,000 $22,000,000 16% $53,000,000 16% 3,300 Lionsgate
9/27/2019 Abominable $20,000,000 – $25,000,000 $22,500,000   $80,000,000 7%   Universal
10/4/2019 Joker $85,000,000 – $105,000,000 $103,000,000 27% $210,000,000 17%   Warner Bros.
10/11/2019 The Addams Family (2019) $16,000,000 – $21,000,000 $18,000,000   $70,000,000     United Artists Releasing
10/11/2019 The Current War (Expansion) n/a n/a   n/a     101 Studios
10/11/2019 Gemini Man $25,000,000 – $30,000,000 $28,000,000   $90,000,000     Paramount
10/11/2019 Jexi $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 $9,000,000   $29,000,000     Lionsgate / CBS Films / Entertainment One
10/18/2019 Maleficent: Mistress of Evil $30,000,000 – $50,000,000 $37,000,000   $110,000,000     Disney
10/18/2019 Zombieland 2: Double Tap $24,000,000 – $34,000,000 $30,000,000   $77,000,000     Sony / Columbia
10/25/2019 Black and Blue $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 $12,000,000   $35,000,000     Sony / Screen Gems
10/25/2019 Countdown n/a n/a   n/a     STX
10/25/2019 The Last Full Measure n/a n/a   n/a     Roadside Attractions
11/1/2019 Motherless Brooklyn $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 n/a   n/a     Warner Bros.
11/1/2019 Terminator: Dark Fate $35,000,000 – $45,000,000 $38,000,000 NEW $85,000,000 NEW   Paramount
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RealLyre Box Office Gold

RealLyre

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Eric! said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-forecast-terminator-dark-fate-plus-a-big-joker-update/

 

8-Week Forecast

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Range 3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
9/13/2019 The Goldfinch $6,000,000 – $11,000,000 $8,000,000 -11% $25,000,000 -14% 2,500 Warner Bros.
9/13/2019 Hustlers $23,000,000 – $33,000,000 $28,500,000 6% $77,000,000 6% 3,100 STX
9/20/2019 Ad Astra $16,000,000 – $21,000,000 $18,000,000 -10% $58,500,000 -10% 3,500 Fox
9/20/2019 Downton Abbey $16,000,000 – $21,000,000 $18,000,000 20% n/a   3,000 Universal
9/20/2019 Rambo: Last Blood $20,000,000 – $25,000,000 $22,000,000 16% $53,000,000 16% 3,300 Lionsgate
9/27/2019 Abominable $20,000,000 – $25,000,000 $22,500,000   $80,000,000 7%   Universal
10/4/2019 Joker $85,000,000 – $105,000,000 $103,000,000 27% $210,000,000 17%   Warner Bros.
10/11/2019 The Addams Family (2019) $16,000,000 – $21,000,000 $18,000,000   $70,000,000     United Artists Releasing
10/11/2019 The Current War (Expansion) n/a n/a   n/a     101 Studios
10/11/2019 Gemini Man $25,000,000 – $30,000,000 $28,000,000   $90,000,000     Paramount
10/11/2019 Jexi $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 $9,000,000   $29,000,000     Lionsgate / CBS Films / Entertainment One
10/18/2019 Maleficent: Mistress of Evil $30,000,000 – $50,000,000 $37,000,000   $110,000,000     Disney
10/18/2019 Zombieland 2: Double Tap $24,000,000 – $34,000,000 $30,000,000   $77,000,000     Sony / Columbia
10/25/2019 Black and Blue $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 $12,000,000   $35,000,000     Sony / Screen Gems
10/25/2019 Countdown n/a n/a   n/a     STX
10/25/2019 The Last Full Measure n/a n/a   n/a     Roadside Attractions
11/1/2019 Motherless Brooklyn $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 n/a   n/a     Warner Bros.
11/1/2019 Terminator: Dark Fate $35,000,000 – $45,000,000 $38,000,000 NEW $85,000,000 NEW   Paramount

that would be a fantastic OW for JOKER but why the horrible legs? 

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Alex SciChannel Box Office Gold

Alex SciChannel

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Eric! said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-forecast-terminator-dark-fate-plus-a-big-joker-update/

 

8-Week Forecast

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Range 3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
9/13/2019 The Goldfinch $6,000,000 – $11,000,000 $8,000,000 -11% $25,000,000 -14% 2,500 Warner Bros.
9/13/2019 Hustlers $23,000,000 – $33,000,000 $28,500,000 6% $77,000,000 6% 3,100 STX
9/20/2019 Ad Astra $16,000,000 – $21,000,000 $18,000,000 -10% $58,500,000 -10% 3,500 Fox
9/20/2019 Downton Abbey $16,000,000 – $21,000,000 $18,000,000 20% n/a   3,000 Universal
9/20/2019 Rambo: Last Blood $20,000,000 – $25,000,000 $22,000,000 16% $53,000,000 16% 3,300 Lionsgate
9/27/2019 Abominable $20,000,000 – $25,000,000 $22,500,000   $80,000,000 7%   Universal
10/4/2019 Joker $85,000,000 – $105,000,000 $103,000,000 27% $210,000,000 17%   Warner Bros.
10/11/2019 The Addams Family (2019) $16,000,000 – $21,000,000 $18,000,000   $70,000,000     United Artists Releasing
10/11/2019 The Current War (Expansion) n/a n/a   n/a     101 Studios
10/11/2019 Gemini Man $25,000,000 – $30,000,000 $28,000,000   $90,000,000     Paramount
10/11/2019 Jexi $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 $9,000,000   $29,000,000     Lionsgate / CBS Films / Entertainment One
10/18/2019 Maleficent: Mistress of Evil $30,000,000 – $50,000,000 $37,000,000   $110,000,000     Disney
10/18/2019 Zombieland 2: Double Tap $24,000,000 – $34,000,000 $30,000,000   $77,000,000     Sony / Columbia
10/25/2019 Black and Blue $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 $12,000,000   $35,000,000     Sony / Screen Gems
10/25/2019 Countdown n/a n/a   n/a     STX
10/25/2019 The Last Full Measure n/a n/a   n/a     Roadside Attractions
11/1/2019 Motherless Brooklyn $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 n/a   n/a     Warner Bros.
11/1/2019 Terminator: Dark Fate $35,000,000 – $45,000,000 $38,000,000 NEW $85,000,000 NEW   Paramount

If you were to tell me 6 months ago The Joker would outgross It: Chapter 2 opening weekend I’d call you crazy.

 

Well this is the World we live in, and these are the hands we’re given

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Alex SciChannel Box Office Gold

Alex SciChannel

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Posted
1 minute ago, RealLyre said:

that would be a fantastic OW for JOKER but why the horrible legs? 

It has horrible legs because screenings and the Venice Film Festival have shown that it isn’t everyone’s cup of tea and is very hard to sit through seeing how there are very disgusting scenes and probably wouldn’t resonate legs.

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Joyous Legion Global Phenomenon

Joyous Legion

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5 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

why are you comparing PG-13 movies with R? they don't have the same audience. 

 

the growth in PG-13 market is different than the growth in the more adult R-rated films. 

Seems like a reasonable enough objection, let’s see what we get focusing just on R movies.   

 

90M nowadays is good for 5th: 

1 Deadpool Fox $132,434,639 36.5% 3,558 $37,222 $363,070,709 2/12/16
2 Deadpool 2 Fox $125,507,153 39.4% 4,349 $28,859 $318,491,426 5/18/18
3 It WB (NL) $123,403,419 37.7% 4,103 $30,076 $327,481,748 9/8/17
4 The Matrix Reloaded WB $91,774,413 32.6% 3,603 $25,471 $281,576,461 5/15/03
5 American Sniper WB $89,269,066 25.5% 3,555 $25,111 $350,126,372 1/16/15

 

A decade ago 5th was...  

1 The Matrix Reloaded WB $91,774,413 32.6% 3,603 $25,471 $281,576,461 5/15/03
2 The Passion of the Christ NM $83,848,082 22.6% 3,043 $27,554 $370,274,604 2/25/04
3 300 WB $70,885,301 33.7% 3,103 $22,844 $210,614,939 3/9/07
4 Hannibal MGM $58,003,121 35.1% 3,230 $17,957 $165,092,268 2/9/01
5 Sex and the City WB (NL) $57,038,404 37.4% 3,285 $17,363 $152,647,258 5/30/08

 

57-58M. It’s really not a substantially different picture here in terms of all OWs vs R opening weekends.

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vafrow Box Office Gold

vafrow

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2 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

It has horrible legs because screenings and the Venice Film Festival have shown that it isn’t everyone’s cup of tea and is very hard to sit through seeing how there are very disgusting scenes and probably wouldn’t resonate legs.

It'll also be getting some level of Oscar buzz for lead actor, so you'd think that would cancel out a bit. Even if there's elements of the film that turn people off, you'll probably have people still check it out for the performance. 

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RealLyre Box Office Gold

RealLyre

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Seems like a reasonable enough objection, let’s see what we get focusing just on R movies.   

  

90M nowadays is good for 5th: 

1 Deadpool Fox $132,434,639 36.5% 3,558 $37,222 $363,070,709 2/12/16
2 Deadpool 2 Fox $125,507,153 39.4% 4,349 $28,859 $318,491,426 5/18/18
3 It WB (NL) $123,403,419 37.7% 4,103 $30,076 $327,481,748 9/8/17
4 The Matrix Reloaded WB $91,774,413 32.6% 3,603 $25,471 $281,576,461 5/15/03
5 American Sniper WB $89,269,066 25.5% 3,555 $25,111 $350,126,372 1/16/15

 

A decade ago 5th was...  

1 The Matrix Reloaded WB $91,774,413 32.6% 3,603 $25,471 $281,576,461 5/15/03
2 The Passion of the Christ NM $83,848,082 22.6% 3,043 $27,554 $370,274,604 2/25/04
3 300 WB $70,885,301 33.7% 3,103 $22,844 $210,614,939 3/9/07
4 Hannibal MGM $58,003,121 35.1% 3,230 $17,957 $165,092,268 2/9/01
5 Sex and the City WB (NL) $57,038,404 37.4% 3,285 $17,363 $152,647,258 5/30/08

 

57-58M. It’s really not a substantially different picture here in terms of all OWs vs R opening weekends.

I still don't get the argument that making it into the top 5 isn't "that good". 

would you say that about any high profile PG-13 movie that fails to crack 208M? 

 

 

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Joyous Legion Global Phenomenon

Joyous Legion

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

I still don't get the argument that making it into the top 5 isn't "that good". 

would you say that about any high profile PG-13 movie that fails to crack 208M? 

 

 

This isn’t what I’m saying at all. Maybe you didn’t read all of the comments?

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TMP Global Phenomenon

TMP

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40 minutes ago, Eric! said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-forecast-terminator-dark-fate-plus-a-big-joker-update/

 

8-Week Forecast

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Range 3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
9/13/2019 The Goldfinch $6,000,000 – $11,000,000 $8,000,000 -11% $25,000,000 -14% 2,500 Warner Bros.
9/13/2019 Hustlers $23,000,000 – $33,000,000 $28,500,000 6% $77,000,000 6% 3,100 STX
9/20/2019 Ad Astra $16,000,000 – $21,000,000 $18,000,000 -10% $58,500,000 -10% 3,500 Fox
9/20/2019 Downton Abbey $16,000,000 – $21,000,000 $18,000,000 20% n/a   3,000 Universal
9/20/2019 Rambo: Last Blood $20,000,000 – $25,000,000 $22,000,000 16% $53,000,000 16% 3,300 Lionsgate
9/27/2019 Abominable $20,000,000 – $25,000,000 $22,500,000   $80,000,000 7%   Universal
10/4/2019 Joker $85,000,000 – $105,000,000 $103,000,000 27% $210,000,000 17%   Warner Bros.
10/11/2019 The Addams Family (2019) $16,000,000 – $21,000,000 $18,000,000   $70,000,000     United Artists Releasing
10/11/2019 The Current War (Expansion) n/a n/a   n/a     101 Studios
10/11/2019 Gemini Man $25,000,000 – $30,000,000 $28,000,000   $90,000,000     Paramount
10/11/2019 Jexi $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 $9,000,000   $29,000,000     Lionsgate / CBS Films / Entertainment One
10/18/2019 Maleficent: Mistress of Evil $30,000,000 – $50,000,000 $37,000,000   $110,000,000     Disney
10/18/2019 Zombieland 2: Double Tap $24,000,000 – $34,000,000 $30,000,000   $77,000,000     Sony / Columbia
10/25/2019 Black and Blue $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 $12,000,000   $35,000,000     Sony / Screen Gems
10/25/2019 Countdown n/a n/a   n/a     STX
10/25/2019 The Last Full Measure n/a n/a   n/a     Roadside Attractions
11/1/2019 Motherless Brooklyn $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 n/a   n/a     Warner Bros.
11/1/2019 Terminator: Dark Fate $35,000,000 – $45,000,000 $38,000,000 NEW $85,000,000 NEW   Paramount

Joker will do $300m dom and open over $100m+ imo

 
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lorddemaxus Global Phenomenon

lorddemaxus

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Posted
27 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

It has horrible legs because screenings and the Venice Film Festival have shown that it isn’t everyone’s cup of tea and is very hard to sit through seeing how there are very disgusting scenes and probably wouldn’t resonate legs.

The movie is no more disgusting or violent than something like A Star is Born. For something that is touted as dark and gritty, it seems pretty casual (based on the script).

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charlie Jatinder Global Phenomenon

charlie Jatinder

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8 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Out from it. First thought about it. It was so long and felt like that way. I thought It will end here atleast 3 times during it but it keep going. 

 

It is very, how to say It, systematic in its screenplay & It get boring due to that.

 

That's my two bits on IT 2. 

also down with the old cast. Kids was what made IT good. 

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