Weekend Thread: Estimates - Mal2 36, Jokah 29.2, Zombi2 26.7, Addams 16, Gemini 8.5 | Parasite 1.2 (37.6K), Lighthouse 420K (52K), Jojo 350K (70K avg)

[Alli]

The first one did $4.2M in 2014.

Edited October 18, 2019 by Alli

[Lighthouse]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The weekend should be better since it's more of a family film but $35-40M opening for Maleficent 2 it is then.

Why so high with poor previews?

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

Why so high with poor previews?

It's a family film in the middle of October. Saturday and Sunday business should be relatively solid.

[Alli]

Alice 2 made $1.5 million Thursday previews for a 27M weekend. Mal2 doesn't have such a toxic reception as Alice 2

[Inceptionzq]

6 minutes ago, Maxmoser3 said:

That’s not good for Maleficent 2. $25 million or so likely, ouch.

It’ll have a better multiplier than x11. 33M-37M seems likely

[babz06]

Seems like it’s going to be a closer weekend than anticipated. Mal2, Joker and Zombie could all be headed in the 30s range. 

[Ezen Baklattan]

Both openers should be above $10m today, and Joker won't be too far behind.

Edited October 18, 2019 by Spaghetti

[sfran43]

That...doesn't add up!😂

Edited October 18, 2019 by sfran43

[Krissykins]

Tracking $50m, Disney expecting $45m, weekend sub $40m = not good. 
 

What’s the budget for Maleficent or are Disney still not sharing budgets this year? 

[sfran43]

 

[DAJK]

I mean, if Maleficent really does become labeled as a 'bomb', its a shame for Jolie, who seems to have put a lot into this role. 

 

Still, boo Disney. They're gonna dominate Hollywood for the next decade. They should take a hit once in a while. 

Edited October 18, 2019 by DAJK

[Ezen Baklattan]

Given what I've seen in terms of Jojo Rabbit, it looks to be doing a bit better in NYC than in LA. I think it should land in the $75-90k PTA range for the weekend.

Edited October 18, 2019 by Spaghetti

[Maxmoser3]

12 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

It’ll have a better multiplier than x11. 33M-37M seems likely

Well as long as it sneaks past $100 million I’m fine. If it has great legs it’s an excuse to look up Angelina Joilie hot pics 

[a2k]

MAL2 needs a hair over 15x to get to 35 ow. (96% Aud RT after 313 verified)

A bit under 9x for ZL2 to hit 25 (94% afer 384 verfieid)

Edited October 18, 2019 by a2k

[a2k]

4.185 Thu for JOKER

 

Conservatively,

9.21 (+120%)

12.89 (+40%)

8.38 (-35%)

= 30.48

 

Thinking it will get to 32

[TwoMisfits]

Maleficent 2 would be disappointing if it can't get to $40M...on Sept 26, Variety was projecting a $50M launch...

 

https://variety.com/2019/film/news/maleficent-2-box-office-opening-tracking-1203350392/

Edited October 18, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[a2k]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

Maleficent 2 would be disappointing if it can't get to $40M...on Sept 26, Variety was pegging a $50M launch...

 

https://variety.com/2019/film/news/maleficent-2-box-office-opening-tracking-1203350392/

looking at a 50% drop in ow from MAL1's 69.4.

 

Edit:

even the same great legs (3.48x) as MAL1 give it 122 dom. But despite solid wom it's not gonna find it easy at all to match those legs.

 

35*3.2 = 112 looks like the ceiling imo.

Edited October 18, 2019 by a2k

[efialtes76]

35 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

That's wrong. 

38.8m yuan are around $5.5M.

[charlie Jatinder]

54 minutes ago, TMP said:

Joker threepeat? 

True fss, possible.

[filmlover]

12 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Maleficent 2 would be disappointing if it can't get to $40M...on Sept 26, Variety was projecting a $50M launch...

 

https://variety.com/2019/film/news/maleficent-2-box-office-opening-tracking-1203350392/

 It's an untimely sequel no one really asked for. At least it can pride itself on the fact it won't see nearly as ugly of a drop-off from its predecessor like fellow flop fairy tale sequels Alice Through the Looking Glass or The Huntsman: Winter's War did from theirs.