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sfran43

Weekend Thread: Estimates - Mal2 36, Jokah 29.2, Zombi2 26.7, Addams 16, Gemini 8.5 | Parasite 1.2 (37.6K), Lighthouse 420K (52K), Jojo 350K (70K avg)

By sfran43, in Numbers and Data

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Old Spice Sleeper Hit

Old Spice

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

Meh , I don't know how The Farewell did better.

I can't wait to see Lighthouse... it opens here on the 25th... but I have a feeling that The Farewell is definitely the more audience friendly of the two.

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Xftg123 Indie Sensation

Xftg123

Posted
Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, Barnack said:

And execution matter a lot, if a bad Jumanji remake would have failed we would be there talking about stupid it was for Sony to make the movie nobody was asking for.

Agreed. There's often a sequel drop for films, but it also depends on what the film is. Box office wise, the only acceptions to this rule would be:

 

-Ones that had an impact and where people were anticipating for a sequel (Ex: Toy Story, Incredibles, Finding Nemo)

 

-Where the first film does great but the second one does even better (Ex: How To Train Your Dragon, Shrek, Kung Fu Panda, 21 Jump Street, Despicable Me)

 

-In a film series, where the movies do better as they go on (Ex: Fast And Furious, MCU [Phases 2 & 3], Mission Impossible, Harry Potter, Twilight, Lord Of The Rings)

Edited by Xftg123
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Eric Duncan Global Phenomenon

Eric Duncan

Posted
Posted

https://deadline.com/2019/10/maleficent-mistress-of-evil-zombieland-double-tap-weekend-box-office-1202763525/

 

Quote

2ND FRIDAY UPDATE, MIDDAY: Disney’s Maleficent: Mistress of Evil is leading the weekend with a less-than-expected result of $35.5M after a $11.75M Friday. The expectation here is that overseas will recoup any domestic shortfall for this $185M production, with global projections now between $135M-$140M. Last night’s PostTrak exits show 32% of families out to 68% general audiences. Parents gave the movie a 59% definite recommend, while kids under 12 gave it 52%. As typical for a Disney family pic, it boils down to Saturday’s business whether this Angelina Jolie sequel spikes back up into its $40M tracking range.

 

Right now, Warner Bros./Bron/Village Roadshow’s Joker is keeping Sony’s Zombieland: Double Tap in third place, with the former beating the latter $30.1M in weekend 3 to $26.6M. Joker is seeing $9M today, while Zombieland 2 is eyeing $10M, including last night’s $2.85M previews. 54% definite recommend for Zombieland 2. Many expect business to be frontloaded this weekend, with fans turning out yesterday and today, though a profitable ancillary life is expected for this action comedy which will reap most of its bucks here in U.S./Canada.

 

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Lighthouse Indie Sensation

Lighthouse

Posted
Posted (edited)
45 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Usually the bigger PTAs come from movies that have major awards buzz surrounding them (which The Farewell had). Looking at the top 40 opening PTAs ever the only ones among live-action titles that didn't have that going for them were Red State, Don't Think Twice, and Suspiria.

The Farewell has no bigger buzz than The Lighthouse, not even close.

43 minutes ago, A Star is Orm said:

I can't wait to see Lighthouse... it opens here on the 25th... but I have a feeling that The Farewell is definitely the more audience friendly of the two.

But this is about openings, no legs.

The Lighthouse feels much bigger than TF in internet by really far. It's getting super hyped since Cannes.

 

Also, I don't know how much influence has that it's being presented at every festival. And almost 3mil ratings on Letterboxd, Idk how many of those come from free-screenings.

 

Jojo Rabbit is even more surprising since it's having bigger TV promos and it's PG-13 + Taika being popular

Edited by Lighthouse
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kitik Global Phenomenon

kitik

Posted
Posted

Regarding the question of who's going to be #1 next weekend, is there even a snowball's chance that something like Countdown could overperform and beat both Joker and Maleficent to the top spot? 

 

Personally I haven't even seen a trailer or a single ad for Countdown, so I know nothing about it other than a 1-sentence plot, but it is a horror movie right before Halloween after all. So maybe a few magical days could make some money for it.

 

(Mind you, I'm certainly not expecting it, I'm just asking if it's possible.)

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Jake Gittes Global Phenomenon

Jake Gittes

Posted
Posted

Jojo and Lighthouse probably cut into each other's audiences. (Parasite's presence doesn't help.) Strange that two of the buzziest platform titles of the season had to release on the same weekend when so many are unoccupied. 

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dudalb Global Phenomenon

dudalb

Posted
Posted

Disney will probably get it's money back on Mal 2, but will make only a minor profit given the size of the budget.

Better then  losing money on it, sure, but good return on investment is still the name of the game in any business.

 

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Xftg123 Indie Sensation

Xftg123

Posted
Posted

Maleficent 2's Budget Confirmed: 185M

 

According to Deadline:

 

Quote

The expectation here is that overseas will recoup any domestic shortfall for this $185M production, with global projections now between $135M-$140M.

Someone stated on Reddit's Box Office sub that the movie needs, correct me if I'm wrong, over 460M in order to breakeven.

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