Weekend Thread: Estimates - Mal2 36, Jokah 29.2, Zombi2 26.7, Addams 16, Gemini 8.5 | Parasite 1.2 (37.6K), Lighthouse 420K (52K), Jojo 350K (70K avg)

[a2k]

1 hour ago, Alli said:

The first one did $4.2M in 2014.

hmmm...16.5x preview to OW multi.

13-14x for MAL2 gives 29.9-32.2 ow.

 

So JOKER has a decent chance to three-peat.

[lorddemaxus]

1 hour ago, Alli said:

Alice 2 made $1.5 million Thursday previews for a 27M weekend. Mal2 doesn't have such a toxic reception as Alice 2

That was also 3 years ago. OWs have gotten more previews heavy since then.

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

Always glad to see Disney flopping.  

[romeross]

53 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Nope. Mid 20s more than likely. Keysers tracking showed considerable frontloading in the presales comparing Thursday to Friday. Expect less and be surprised if it surprises. 

3 million on Thursday is a good number, I hope "ZL2" will collect at least at least 27 million OW

[TalismanRing]

20 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

That was also 3 years ago. OWs have gotten more previews heavy since then.

It was also MD w/e with school out - different animal than an Oct release for a family film.

[charlie Jatinder]

At Noon EST, M2 seems like $9.5mn true Friday while Joker is around $9.25mn. Zombieland, I missed checking, will check in few minutes.

[John Marston]

Both Alice and Maleficent were huge movies that had strong legs but both sequels will end up being big disappointments. Interesting 

[martin]

10 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

At Noon EST, M2 seems like $9.5mn true Friday while Joker is around $9.25mn. Zombieland, I missed checking, will check in few minutes.

Wow close race.....but the tru number is afternoon and evening....still a huge chance for threepeat joker......

[narniadis]

5 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Both Alice and Maleficent were huge movies that had strong legs but both sequels will end up being big disappointments. Interesting 

They were also both films that didnt leave a post theatrical impact (either good or bad). And their sequels ended up coming out well past the 36 month optimistic window. 

 

Disney knew with the move to October that they didnt have a huge hit, similar to their behavior with Dumbo squashed as it was on the calendar. 

[SLAM!]

6 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Both Alice and Maleficent were huge movies that had strong legs but both sequels will end up being big disappointments. Interesting 

 

Hollywood needs to learn the lesson that, while some films become really big, only a handful warrant sequels that can actually be just as successful as their first films. Personally, I think they're learning--ever-so-slowly, but they're definitely learning.

[Marcos12]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

 

What’s the budget for Maleficent or are Disney still not sharing budgets this year? 

Estimated around  $185m.

[Manny G]

5 minutes ago, Marcos12 said:

Estimated around  $185m.

Phew how’s overseas looking? 

[reddevil19]

19 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

At Noon EST, M2 seems like $9.5mn true Friday while Joker is around $9.25mn. Zombieland, I missed checking, will check in few minutes.

So 120% increase for Joker. If evenings play strong, could go closer to 10, I suppose (135%, 9.8-ish?).

[martin]

4 minutes ago, Marcos12 said:

Estimated around  $185m.

Well endgame profit will cover this and dumbo lost.....mary floppin too...lol

[reddevil19]

14 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Both Alice and Maleficent were huge movies that had strong legs but both sequels will end up being big disappointments. Interesting 

Though I would be shocked if Maleficent's drop OS will be as bad as Alice's...

[Jake Gittes]

Alice's legs weren't strong. It couldn't even do 3x. And it owes a sizable chunk of its gross to being the first 3D movie post-Avatar. 

[a2k]

34 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

At Noon EST, M2 seems like $9.5mn true Friday while Joker is around $9.25mn. Zombieland, I missed checking, will check in few minutes.

MAL2

2.3

9.5

12.8 (+35%) // MAL1 jumped +28% in May. Sat bump from true Fri has gotten bigger as Thu eats up the rush.

9.6 (-25%)

= 34.2

 

JOKER

9.25 (+121%)

13.1 (+42%)

8.7 (-34%)

= 31.05

Edited October 18, 2019 by a2k

[Ryan Reynolds]

So Joker will be #1 again next weekend?

[Alli]

Shame about Maleficent. AJ really is perfect casting. Too bad they couldn't make the movies more interesting. The first one was boring. I ain't gonna see this new one

[cdsacken]

2 hours ago, Maxmoser3 said:

That’s not good for Maleficent 2. $25 million or so likely, ouch.

Lol it's not gonna do 11x.

 

Worst case 34 probably higher