Noctis Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 9 hours ago, keysersoze123 said: China - 100m Japan - 150m Rest in release - 500m(Asia legs will average out sub 3x and rest over 3x). Russia - 40m(that is over 2.5B Rubles @juni78ukr hope that is possible) Australia - 40m(XR is crap now) Italy - 30m ( @Omni confirm if its too lwo) Brazil - 25m Rest - 65m 950m OS. Generally legs tend to hold better and so could hit 1B OS without having a crazy run. But will need major growth and good holds. Didn't Japan have an $18m weekend? I can see it hitting past $150m. And China will pass $100m...not by much, but it should hit roughly $110m. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 18 minutes ago, Noctis said: Didn't Japan have an $18m weekend? I can see it hitting past $150m. And China will pass $100m...not by much, but it should hit roughly $110m. That is 3 day. 2 D OW is lower. Normal blockbusters 10x is extraordinary legs. This is a sequel and so will not behave anything like Frozen 1 did. plus it has no holiday boost till January if I am not wrong. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJ 95 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 16 minutes ago, Noctis said: Didn't Japan have an $18m weekend? I can see it hitting past $150m. And China will pass $100m...not by much, but it should hit roughly $110m. Japan had 15m weekend, and still too early to predict it. With its weekdays in Maoyan if its confirmed i dont think it will pass $100m on China. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 1 minute ago, RJ 95 said: Japan had 15m weekend, and still too early to predict it. With its weekdays in Maoyan if its confirmed i dont think it will pass $100m on China. BTW looking at mimiron, drop today from yesterday seem big. Is it bcos its audience waiting for wednesday when there are discounts for women? Plus this seems more of a weekend movie as seen in China as well. That might limit its potential as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJ 95 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 (edited) 12 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said: BTW looking at mimiron, drop today from yesterday seem big. Is it bcos its audience waiting for wednesday when there are discounts for women? Plus this seems more of a weekend movie as seen in China as well. That might limit its potential as well. Yup, i actually want to post this in Japan OS thread but afraid that i'm wrong or think like i'm pessimistic of its Japan's run. Before 2pm local time its Tuesday actually only 45% of its Monday and currently recovering to around 55% of its Monday.Then with how much it increase each 20 minutes, I predict it will get into 60-65% of Monday. Certainly lower than i predicted yesterday. For some example Joker usually do around 75-80% of its Monday, Mal2 also same percentage and i just looked TS4 also made 73% of its Monday. Your assumption probably accurate though because Frozen 1 usually increase bigger than normally on Wednesday. Edited November 26, 2019 by RJ 95 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danhtruong5 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Just now, RJ 95 said: Yup, i actually want to post this in Japan OS thread but afraid that i'm wrong or think like i'm pessimistic of its Japan's run. Before 2pm local time its actually only 45% of its Monday and currently around 55% of its Monday.Then with how much it increase each 20 minutes, I predict it will get into 60-65% of Monday. Certainly lower than i predict yesterday. For some example Joker usually do around 75-80% of its Monday, Mal2 also same percentage and i just looked TS4 also made 73% of its Monday. Your assumption probably accurate though because Frozen 1 usually increase bigger than normally on Wednesday. Wasn't it bacause holiday support?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJ 95 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 (edited) 13 minutes ago, danhtruong5 said: Wasn't it bacause holiday support?? holiday ? Wednesday in Japan cinema is a ladies day, so there is some discount for women. Frozen with its demographic should benefits much more than usual movies tomorrow. Its always reflected back then in Frozen 1 run. We'll see how much it increase tomorrow, for some example TS4 increase on avg around 30-50% on its Wednesday . Frozen 2 should aim much bigger imo like >70% maybe. Edited November 26, 2019 by RJ 95 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omni Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 11 hours ago, keysersoze123 said: Italy - 30m ( @Omni confirm if its too lwo) Competition is fierce in Italy. I'm not worried about Star Wars, which won't attract a good bunch of casual moviegoers, but there are two local comedies aiming at families that open on F2's 3rd and 4th weekend (the first is a Christmas crap starring a very popular duo, the second is a Pinocchio film starring Benigni as Geppetto), and that's where the movie needs to remain strong to get some decent Christmas bump. 30M dollars means 27M euros. It's a realistic target, but to me it looks much more optimistic than low. Would have been more confident in it with the old release date (12th December) and without one of those two local comedies. I'd go with 27/28 for the time being. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PKMLover Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 (edited) Frozen 1 did $874M OS total Assume Japan will drop $100M The rest of Asia (except Australia) will try to balance out it. China +40 (finish at 90) South Korea +10 (finish at 86) South East Asia +40 Indonesia +8 Philipines +8 Vietnam +2.5 India +6 Thailand + Malaysia + Taiwan + Hongkong + Singapore + some other small markets = +15 Middle East Asia +10 So we have: 40 +10 + 40 + 10 = 100 --------------------- Then, how much F2 OS improves from F1's will depend on Australia, Europe and Latin America. Australia +10 UK +15 France +5 Germany +5 Italy +4 Spain +5 Russia +8 Rest of Europe +15 Central and South America +15 Total (maybe): +80 Total OS for F2 (maybe): $874M + $80M = $954M Edited November 27, 2019 by PKMLover 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 I am not sure how they define animation, TLK blurred the line. If not, two of the biggest animation will likely belong to Frozen 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danhtruong5 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 (edited) . Edited November 26, 2019 by danhtruong5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamiem Posted November 27, 2019 Author Share Posted November 27, 2019 Post from NZ thread (less than 12 hours til release here) Albany Event Cinemas -Frozen II opening day (Thur 28/11/2019)12 hours before release 9:45am GC 0/40 10:00am 23/216 10:15am GC 0/30 11:00am 29/216 12:15pm GC 1/40 12:25pm 22/216 1:25pm 23/216 2:50pm 46/216 3:30pm GC 4/30 3:50pm 96/216 5:15pm 84/216 5:30pm GC 12/40 6:00pm GC 29/30 6:15pm 122/216 6:50pm 61/162 7:40pm 57/216 8:00pm GC 30/40 8:40pm 31/216 Total 670/2572 (26.05%) All of the comps have come down and I believe that is due to the fact that there are a very small amount showings on opening day, less seats available then all the other comps I have listed. That being said I’d still feel confident in at least a $2m opening leaning closer towards a $3m (maybe even $4m) even if the numbers don’t point to that, the reason being this has more showings across Saturday and Sunday and seems like it will be leggy rather than front loaded even with the high amount of tickets it has sold for opening day. TLK at the same point sold 1831/5554(32.96%) which would be a $1.86m opening weekend Hobbs and Shaw at the same point sold 361/3560(10.14%) which would be a $2.97m opening weekend Joker at the same point sold 446/2756(16.18%) which would be a $1.91m opening weekend 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edroger3 Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 Frozen 1 M$ Frozen 2 M$ F2 vs F1 Week1 M$ Week2 M$ DOM 400,74 163,89 40,90% 130,30 33,59 China 48,24 62,24 129,02% 53,38 8,86 SK 76,70 40,02 52,18% 31,97 8,05 Japan 249,04 22,84 9,17% 17,87 4,97 UK 57,92 19,40 33,49% 19,40 - Germany 48,29 15,30 31,69% 15,30 - France 46,94 14,27 30,40% 14,27 - Mexico 25,73 8,63 33,54% 8,63 - Indonesia 2,77 6,25 225,63% 6,25 - Philippines 2,69 6,19 230,06% 6,19 - Spain 22,49 5,90 26,23% 5,90 - Taiwan 1,50 3,34 222,67% 3,34 - Poland 7,35 3,20 43,53% 3,20 - India 0,60 3,12 520,00% 3,12 - Malaysia 3,62 3,09 85,39% 3,09 Thailand 1,45 2,36 162,76% 2,36 - Netherl. 10,51 2,30 21,89% 2,30 - Turkey 4,73 2,22 46,91% 2,22 - Belgium 7,93 2,16 27,25% 2,16 - HK 2,58 2,07 80,24% 2,07 - Singapore 3,84 1,88 48,94% 1,88 - Switzerland 4,28 1,77 41,36% 1,77 - Austria 5,29 1,65 31,19% 1,65 - Czech Rep. 1,56 1,54 98,72% 1,54 - Vietnam 0,88 1,47 167,05% 1,47 - Ukraine 2,87 1,39 48,50% 1,39 - Colombia 6,27 1,36 21,70% 1,36 - Hungary 2,05 0,77 37,58% 0,77 - Portugal 3,01 0,70 23,26% 0,70 - Slovakia 1,21 0,56 46,28% 0,56 - Croatia 0,50 0,35 70,00% 0,35 - Slovenia 0,45 0,23 51,11% 0,23 - Iceland 0,35 0,13 37,14% 0,13 - Russia 33,44 - 0,00% - - Australia 26,70 - 0,00% - - Italy 26,42 - 0,00% - - Brazil 21,74 - 0,00% - - Venezuela 12,51 - 0,00% - - Argentina 11,55 - 0,00% - - Sweden 9,74 - 0,00% - - Denmark 7,77 - 0,00% - - Norway 7,53 - 0,00% - - Chile 5,23 - 0,00% - - NewZel 4,43 - 0,00% - - Peru 3,41 - 0,00% - - EAU 3,14 - 0,00% - - SAFR 2,66 - 0,00% - - Finland 2,51 - 0,00% - - Ecuador 2,48 - 0,00% - - Israel 2,34 - 0,00% - - Greece 2,18 - 0,00% - - Other 36,34 11,08 30,49% 11,08 - Total 1.276,48 413,67 32,41% 358,20 55,47 7 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
juni78ukr Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 I predicted $15 mln+ opening weekend in Russia. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 All these new markets this week will allow it to hold on pretty well internationally 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamiem Posted November 28, 2019 Author Share Posted November 28, 2019 9 hours ago, Fullbuster said: All these new markets this week will allow it to hold on pretty well internationally Yeah along with strong holds presumably in two of its bigger markets in Japan and Korea and the fact that its Thanksgiving in the US should lead to a strong second weekend worldwide. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 1 hour ago, Jamiem said: Yeah along with strong holds presumably in two of its bigger markets in Japan and Korea and the fact that its Thanksgiving in the US should lead to a strong second weekend worldwide. I can't wait 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edroger3 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 2 hours ago, Jamiem said: Yeah along with strong holds presumably in two of its bigger markets in Japan and Korea and the fact that its Thanksgiving in the US should lead to a strong second weekend worldwide. We haven't any international update but I have 480-500 before friday. 100M only USA+ JAP +KOR+ CHI. Then 30+ mkt in play. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danhtruong5 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 2 hours ago, edroger3 said: We haven't any international update but I have 480-500 before friday. 100M only USA+ JAP +KOR+ CHI. Then 30+ mkt in play. 480-500 worldwide?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edroger3 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 5 hours ago, danhtruong5 said: 480-500 worldwide?? Yes, 460 coming from actuals other are predictions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
